Are you ready for Y2K in the millennium?

A new millennium was approaching and everything from cataclysmic social upheaval to the end of the world was predicted. But that was a thousand years ago (almost), and we've come a long way since then, haven't we? Today's predictions (supermarket tabloids aside) feature information systems gridlock among the more prominent disasters.

Remember, though, civilization survived when the calendar rolled over to 1000, so odds are we'll make it through Y2K. Y what? That's the computer industry insider's abbreviation for the Year 2000 Problem - and if you're not sure what that is, you're not alone. Given the magnitude of our vulnerability to this problem and the dire consequences forecast, it is amazing how poor our society's understanding of it is, and how little we have done to offset it.

So, just what is Y2K and where does it come from?

It is a legacy of the early days of computing, when memory was in such short supply that every bit and byte was hoarded like a miser's gold. Today, with gigabytes of storage costing less than a decent filing cabinet and able to fit into a coat pocket, it is hard to appreciate how the elimination of two digits in the recording of a date could have seemed like such a great idea. Nevertheless, 30, 20, even 10 years ago, programmers and chip designers were willing to settle for 97 to represent the year 1997. Couple that economy of data storage with a programming protocol that allowed dates to be accepted only in an ascending order - on up to 99 - and you have Y2K in a nutshell. A computer or program that has not been retooled to either require four digit dates or to see 00 as a number that can follow 99 will not be able to accept 2000 as the year after 1999.

The Gartner Group, an adviser on information technology, has estimated that the cost of fixing existing computer software nationwide will be between $300 and $600 billion. Add to that the expense of business interruption, and the total cost might top a trillion dollars. Yet, in a study of 2,300 companies, organizations and government agencies in 17 countries, the results of which were announced this October, Gartner determined that 30% of the participants had not even begun to address Y2K, and that large healthcare organizations and government agencies were among those furthest behind in their efforts.

The greatest impact of Y2K on nursing homes will probably be on their financial software in the accounts receivable, accounts payable and payroll modules, but there will be consequences anywhere a date is required. While the more likely result will be the rejection of data entered, it is also possible that the data will be accepted erroneously - a far more insidious problem. It is even conceivable that entire computer systems and networks will simply crash and be inoperable.

The good news is that most programs written in the past couple of years have eliminated Y2K as a constraint. A nursing home using a Pentium computer running recently upgraded software under Windows 95 or Windows NT will have less of a problem - perhaps none at all. Given the above conditions, though, a nursing home cannot assume it has no or a minimal Y2K problem.

Every computer system should be put through a simple test. Temporarily change the date and time on it to December 31,1999, 23:55 hours, and turn the power off. Wait 15 minutes and then turn the computer on. The date and time should read January 1, 2000, 00:10 hours. Then go into the individual programs and see if they all operate correctly. If they do, you have the Y2K problem as much in hand as is possible. Any problems you do have will likely be the result of interface with other systems in which the Y2K issue has not been successfully addressed (and that's a possibility worth remembering. You may have everything under control and still find that your receivables situation is in chaos because the government or managed care companies have problems that affect their ability to receive billing and pay. The result could be at least short-term financial strain).

If, after running this test, you find that the clock date is not correct or that a program will either not open or function correctly, you have a problem. It is, however, a problem that can be solved. You have three choices: Switch to an upgrade of your program that has taken Y2K into account; switch to a new program that has done so; or get a fix from your vendor.

Unfortunately, the last alternative might be problematic in the nursing home field. Most software vendors have made the decision not to fix Y2K in their existing software. Instead they are solving the problem by writing new versions of the programs. That means you are probably going to have to invest in new software, get it installed and have people trained on it in the next two years.

And that presents another problem, says Deborah Roland, president of the Roland Associates, Inc., information management consulting firm. "It's a big dilemma. When I look at vendors with a hundred or more customers, I wonder how in the world are they going to be able to convert those customers in the time that remains, especially when many of them havn't got their new system ready yet. Those customers are in limbo."

So, what's a nursing home to do? Well, to begin with, be prepared to spend money. Fixing Y2K is going to cost, so budget for it. For example, if your facility is still operating on an old mini-computer system, you might be faced with little alternative to replacing everything with a personal-computer-based system that runs Y2K-compliant software.

Then take an inventory of your computer operations. What programs do you have running on what machines? Have they passed the simple Y2K test? If not, do you have a relationship with the original vendor for a possible upgrade?

In any event, if you find you have problems, start the process of solving them now. Either get in line for assistance from the vendor or begin to shop for new software that has addressed Y2K. Beware, though, of promises that "a fix is coming." There are more and more firms marketing "solutions," but quality varies widely, and for some customers Y2K could become yet another "vaporware" disaster. If your vendor has a history of badly missing delivery dates on software upgrades, you might not want to trust a promise of Y2K-compliant software "next year."

Again, the emphasis is on the here and now. "Larger nursing homes and nursing home companies simply cannot afford to wait," says Roland. "They have to get in line with their vendor or make the decision to switch programs now. As we get closer to 2000, vendor resources are going to be stretched to the breaking point. I am afraid that in 1999 it is going to be pandemonium. The longer people wait, the greater the likelihood that they will be tempted to slam dunk some new system in at the tail end, or end up begging and pleading with their vendor, or have to fall back on manual systems."

One final caution: Be mindful of date-dependent microprocessors in healthcare equipment your facility uses. These could jam up, too, come January 1, 2000. The only solution is to contact the manufacturer and find out.

Y2K is not going to go away on its own. After all, it is built into the Millennium. Unlike some of the natural disasters that have been "forecast," though, there is something you can do about it.

David Patterson is a Contributing Editor to Nursing Homes Magazine.