Are things really getting better? The labour market experience of black and female youth (1) at the start of the century.

Introduction

The education and job chances of young people have been issues of crucial concern to successive British governments because, in the final decades of the last century, youth unemployment rates persisted at levels of over double that of the adult population and usually in the region of 20 per cent. The accompanying general increase in educational participation (2) was more pronounced for young blacks (Banks et al, 1992; Slade, 1992; Drew et al, 1992; Gray et al, 1994; Drew, 1995; Labour Market Trends, 1996) and young women (Gray and Sime, 1992; Gray et al, 1994; Labour Market Quarterly Report, May 1996) than their respective counterparts. By the start of the new century, the labour market position of these groups is thought to have improved substantially, in part because of this trend. There is some evidence, for example, that by the 1990s, some members of these groups had disproportionately benefited in terms of gaining educational qualifications and job opportunity (eg, Roberts 1995; Ainley, 1993; Tomlinson 1 997; McCrum, 1998). These conclusions have been generalised in the popular press. In particular, there is continuing public debate about the 'girls on top' phenomenon: for example, 'The Future is Female' (aac Panorama, 1994), 'Men aren't Working' (BBC Panorama, 1995), 'Grim Reading for Males' (Guardian, 1998a), 'Problems That Arise When Boys will be "Lads"' (Guardian, 1998b). Stephen Byers, then School Standards Minister in the Labour Government, lent political authority to current opinion when he argued that 'laddish' behaviour impeded boys' learning (Guardian, 1998b).

It is unsurprising, therefore, that while placing education as a 'key' priority, New Labour policy did not specifically target black and female youth. In a recent speech, the Education Secretary, David Blunkett, argued that university researchers should 'make their findings more accessible to government officials to help them deliver more effective policies' (Guardian 2000). The aim of this article, therefore, is to clearly present evidence that is counter-intuitive in that it debunks current beliefs. Instead, it incontrovertibly demonstrates that popular 'truths' conceal and belie the experience of the majority of black and female youths because they are based on analyses of the academically most successful and/or socially most advantaged. This paper is concerned with the majority: those who do not proceed to university, most of whom are from low-socio-economic backgrounds. It will be demonstrated that, by the beginning of the new century, the positions of most young blacks and women relative to their respec tive white and male equivalents, had not changed to any significant extent compared to the pre-Thatcher years. Indeed, for some young blacks it had worsened. This situation has major policy implications in terms of future labour market and educational reforms for a Government whose programmes have embraced a desire to help the poor and less able.

The method of enquiry is an analysis of different kinds of evidence. There have been several major on-going studies of young people conducted in Britain over the last three decades or so, such as the England and Wales Youth Cohort Surveys and the Scottish Young People's Surveys. Pertinent results will be examined along with other important literature. The data is contextual, quantitative and qualitative. It includes case studies, econometric findings, official statistics and legislative details. The analysis will be categorised according to explanatory theme. The article will be organised in the following way. First, the arguments will be introduced. Second, empirical findings will be discussed: illustrating the educational and labour market patterns of these groups and then supporting the themes of the arguments. A tabular summary of some of the results will be presented for purposes of clarification. Finally conclusions and policy implications will be drawn.

Racial and gender groupings will be dealt with separately for clarity's sake, though black females, say, will be represented in both types (3). Typologies are a useful way to present themes but they are an over-simplification: some blacks gained skilled work (Booth and Satchell 1996) and many low-skill jobs were not gender-based (Marsden and Ryan 1986). Bearing in mind this caveat, in general, it will be assumed that blacks were represented mainly in low-skill jobs and that many occupations were segregated by sex.

Theory

The main argument is that policies of successive governments in the last thirty years of the twentieth century had no overall advantageous effect on the relative experiences of the majority of young blacks and females. The notion of labour market stratification, whereby the market does not clear, is essential to the explanatory analysis. Many studies of youth rest on the idea that the labour market is stratified (eg, Roberts et al. 1987) or segmented (eg, Marsden and Ryan 1986; Ashton and Maguire 1986; Ashton 1988; Marsden and Germe 1990). Essentially stratification involves the idea that freedom of entry/exit to some industries/occupations is restricted and thus rigidities arise in the labour market and may persist. It is engendered by such factors as attitudes, level and range of information and contacts, qualifications/training and laws/institutions. The concept is particularly important with regard to the young because, although the British youth labour market consists largely of unskilled work, it also o ffers some important entry ports to careers, particularly in terms of the apprenticeship system. For example, Ashton and Maguire (1986) maintained that those who had not obtained a formal training by the age of i8 were excluded from large parts of the labour market. Roberts et al (1987) argued that those who failed to gain admission to entry ports might 'find themselves permanently excluded from routes up the occupational structure, confined to unemployment or secondary occupations' (p.30).

The situation of blacks and women as distinct groups needs separate analyses with regard to stratification. With regard to ethnic minorities, although the post-war decades were a time of prosperity, blacks of both genders tended to be vertically stratified or 'crowded' into low-paying jobs which offered fewer training opportunities than those available to their white counterparts. It is contended that this situation was largely a feature of racial prejudice, poor information, inadequate qualifications and poverty that continued throughout the final three decades of the last century. Moreover, in the changed economic circumstances that have marked those three decades, individuals at the bottom of youth job queues faced more dire circumstances than in the prosperous post-war years. Finally, new educational programmes of successive governments have done little to counter and may even have exacerbated this situation: for example, the increase in poverty among black people meant a consequential confinement to run- down city areas and deprived schools where policies favoured 'successful' institutions.

The case of young females as a group needs a different approach. Girls are subject to horizontal stratification. In general, in the fifties and sixties they were represented in different types of industries/occupations than young men and, as a consequence, received less training overall and acquired skills which led to lower long-term financial rewards. It is contended that such stratification continued through the persistence of conventional attitudes to work and family. Moreover, in the changed labour market context of the last quarter century, young women were exposed to particular competition from increasing numbers of women returners, and to the development of 'dead-end' work and the implications of new technology in traditionally 'female' areas. Finally, educational developments in the form of new examinations in the commercial courses usually undertaken by girls were efficacious with regard to gaining work relative to subjects traditionally chosen by boys. This meant that young females were encouraged to stay within the confines of their own sector, sacrificing long-term prospects for immediate employment.

These explanations can be introduced within a theoretical framework in which labour is reproduced as cheaply as possible (Bordieu and Passeron 1977). More than this, labour is also adapted to the changed economy of the late twentieth century. Ainley (1993) contended that this process involved an 'ideological and material construction of the new "underclass"' (p. 66). From this stance, it is contended that the education system acts, not just as a sorting system (Willis 1977) but, particularly with regard to black male youths, as a mechanism to subdue and control those young people who are unable to obtain constant or worthwhile jobs (Roberts 1995). In the case of young women, Hartman (1976) argued that 'job segregation by sex ... is the primary mechanism in capitalist society that maintains the superiority of men over women, because it enforces lower wages' (p. 139), while Redclift (1985) maintained that 'the reproduction of capitalism is premised upon unpaid domestic labour'. It is contended that educational reform successfully accommodated these aims.

Empirical work

Young black people

1. The phenomenon: increased educational participation but persisting disadvantage

Since the main immigration flow to the UK of the fifties and sixties, labour market disadvantage was clearly apparent for the black population. When black early school-leavers gained work, it was generally of the low-level, unskilled variety which offered no training (Smith 1976; Mayhew and Rosewell 1978). Moreover, their unemployment rates were always higher than those of whites (Jones 1976) and by the late seventies, they were between two or three times those of whites (National Dwelling and Household Survey 1978). (4) Although there were broader contributing influences (5) (see Raffe 1992; Paterson and Raffe 1995; Biggart and Furlong 1996; Foskert and Hesketh 1997; Cregan, 1999; Cregan 2001), the increased levels of unemployment from the mid-seventies was one of the major reasons for the initial rise in staying-on rates (Whitfield and Wilson 1991). Unsurprisingly, therefore, a greater proportion of ethnic minorities relative to whites had traditionally stayed in school in Britain. For example, in 1978/9 an d 1981/2 the Swann Committee of Enquiry (Swann 1985) found that the Afro-Caribbean participation rate of those in full-time secondary education after the age of 16 was sixty per cent more than whites, while that of South Asians was nearly double. From the mid-eighties, the general increase in participation in full time education was particularly marked amongst young people from ethnic minorities (Labour Market Trends, June 1996). There is disaggregated material available for 1991: Slade (1992) reported that 78 per cent of Africans/Caribbeans, 77 per cent of Asians, and 63 per cent of whites remained in education. Drew et al. (1992), Gray et al. (1994) and Drew (1995), controlling for other influences, found that there was a racial influence per se: blacks, especially Asians (Drew et al. 1992; Banks et al.; 1992), were more likely to stay in fulltime education than whites.

However, the evidence also demonstrates that, despite these educational trends, black vertical segregation continued through to the end of the century. Roberts et al. (1987) reported that young 'ethnic minority respondents ... (are) less successful (than whites) in the competition for every single grade of employment' (p. 139). Jones (1993) concluded that there was 'a continuity of patterns which developed after the first wave of immigration. ... Ethnic minority people remained in the low status jobs in distinct parts of the economy, they still suffered substantially higher rates of unemployment than existed in the white population' (p. 149). There is specific evidence with regard to early school-leavers: racial disadvantage in gaining work for young people who did not go on to higher education continued throughout the 1980s and 1990s (Connolly et al. 1991; Drew et al. 1992; Jones 1993; Drew 1995). By the last years of the twentieth century, 'the unemployment rate of ethnic minority people as a whole remain(e d) around double that of white people' (6) (Labour Market Trends, June 1996, p. 26).

More than this, some findings clearly demonstrate that the labour market situation for young blacks in the last decade has been worse than in the post-war years. Sly et al (1997) reported that 'the ratio of ethnic minority employment has been higher in the 1990S than it was in the mid to late eighties' (p. 295). Moreover, some staying-on was merely concealed unemployment. For example, Roberts and Parsell (1992b) claimed that many of those taking the non-academic courses after the age of 16 did so just because of the lack of availability of work and Yates (1996) concluded that many young people stayed on at school merely to defer labour market entry. This factor is particularly important with regard to blacks: staying-on rates had increased most for those with the least qualifications, those with low or no GOSE passes (Payne 1995a). These were clearly individuals who had failed to gain work (Maguire 1991) or a government training place. (7) As a consequence, black youth unemployment figures understate job chan ces.

Overall, the results incontrovertibly establish relatively higher staying-on rates for black early-school-leavers, but persisting and even deteriorating labour market disadvantage.

2. Evidence

This section will provide evidence substantiating the veracity of the themes of the arguments proposed to explain this situation.

The persistence of the factors underpinning vertical segregation The underpinning factors of vertical stratification clearly persisted through to the new century.

(a) Prejudice

First, racial prejudice remained strong from the end of the post-war decades through to the end of the century, despite the 1976 Race Relations Act. (8) Sillitoe and Meltzer (1985) concluded that 'there can be little doubt that discriminatory recruitment practices were the major reason West Indians young people encountered especial difficulty in obtaining suitable employment' (p.99). The Swann Committee (Swann, 1985) reported 'prejudice and discrimination in the employment ... market' (p.81). Econometric studies which statistically controlled for the effects of other features variously including inner city residence and household unemployment, have found that race per se was an important variable with regard to disadvantage in finding work (Lynch 1987; Drew, Gray et al. 1992; Drew 1995) and in finding apprenticeships (Lee and Wrench 1983; Booth and Satchell 1996; Cregan, 1999). More important, some findings suggest that prejudice nullified the efficacy of gaining further credentials for blacks. For example, R oberts et al. (1987) claimed that qualifications achieved at school were doing little, if anything, to overcome non-white disadvantage. Successful attempts by some Asians to increase their qualifications did not lead to greater opportunities for them in the labour market: there was an increasing disparity between the labour market experience of ethnic groups, with Pakistani/Bangladeshis at the bottom (Sime 1991; Jones 1993).

(b) Poor information: parental unemployment and occupation

Second, blacks continued to have poorer labour market information than whites. For example, parental occupation has traditionally been seen as a strong and important predictor of the labour market success of children (eg, Goldthorpe et al. 1968). This remained the case in the Conservative decades (Roberts and Chadwick 1991). The Swann Committee (Swann, 1985) reported their 'social and economic deprivation' (p. 81) and there is evidence from the 1980s that Afro-Caribbeans continued to be highly represented among the lower socio-economic groups (Jones 1993). Moreover, black youths were much more likely to have an unemployed parent than white youths: using Labour Force Survey data, Sly et al. (1997) estimated that by autumn 1996, for whites of all ages it was about 7 per cent and for all other groups of all ages, about 18% (9). This is important because in the 1980s, parental unemployment became an important determinant of youth disadvantage (Pahl 1984; Lynch 1985 1987; Roberts et al. 1987; Furlong 1992).

(c) Poor qualifications

Third, in general, when they left school, non-whites were not as well-qualified as their white counterparts. West Indians were five times less likely to obtain five or more GCE passes than whites; Asians, though more successful in exams than West Indians (10), were less so than whites (Swann 1985). Sillitoe and Meltzer (1985) also reported the inadequate qualifications of West Indians. Moreover, the outcome of increased participation from the 1970s was not an improvement in qualifications: blacks were still less qualified than whites when they left school (Education Statistics for the UK, July 1992). Game and George (1999) estimated their rate of improvement may have even fallen below levels of previous times. Gillborn and Gipps (1996) tentatively reported that working class Afro-Caribbean boys were underachieving even in relation to their white male counterparts". They also found uneven evidence of underachievement by Bangladeshis, despite popular views about Asian achievement. Indian pupils seemed to be far ing better than any other group, though they suggested this was probably a class effect.

These are important findings that need extensive empirical investigation to provide explanations. Most of the literature with regard to Afro-Caribbeans and Asian families demonstates that the parents have individualistic attitudes with regard to their children (Mirza 1992; Tomlinson 1993; Vincent 1995). Tomlinson (1997) claimed that 'whatever their socioeconomic position, the educational values and aspirations of minority parents have clearly accorded with the aspirations and expectations of the middle classes in the UK' (p.63). Hunter (1991) found a difference in black and white parental priorities with regard to choice of school: unlike whites, 'parents of African or Caribbean background most often cited the school's emphasis on academic achievement ... as their main reason for choosing it' (p. 31). The poor response of black youth, therefore, was not a result of low parental hopes.

Several other reasons have been put proposed. First, teachers have been blamed for a manifestation of negative views and low pupil expectations leading to 'cultural arrogance and insensitivity' (Parekh 1986, p. 25) and 'self-fulfilling prophecies' (Sarup 1986, p. 9). In the early eighties, there was some empirical support for this proposition (eg, Carrington and Wood 1983; Wright 1986; Mac an Ghaill 1988). However, a later investigation by Foster (1992) reported that racial stereotyping on the part of teachers had become insignificant and other studies reported that by the mid-eighties, school/teacher attitudes were improving (Smith and Tomlinson 1989; Giliborn and Gipps 1996). Second, Mirza (1992) found that under-achievement was a result of disproportionate black attendance at poorly-resourced schools, where academic performance was low. Certainly, a high percentage of blacks are restricted to low quality, innercity housing (12) (Swann 1985; Rajan et al, 1996). However, there is some evidence that suggests that, even within schools, Afro-Caribbean achievement is poor (Gray et al. 1989).

Finally, an explanation has been sought within the context of the general 'laddish' debate with regard to the particular behaviour of Afro-Caribbean male youth. For example, in 1992, Afro-Caribbean pupils made up 8 per cent of those excluded from schools, but only 2 per cent of the school population; thus, exclusion disproportionately denied black pupils access to mainstream education (Gillborn 1995). Cultural reasons for irresponsible and aggressive black masculine behaviour have been refuted in some of the literature (Mirza 1992; Wright et al. 1998). Instead, Foster (1992) discovered that a significant minority of black students were ambivalent or hostile to school, 'perhaps as a result of their poor school prospects ... or because of the economic and social disadvantage faced by their families' (p. 277). Thus, they caused disruption and teachers spent time on control and survival rather than academic work.

The evidence relating to factors underpinning the persistence of vertical segregation of black youths can be clearly summarised (see Table 1).

The changing labour market

The contextual evidence demonstrates that the changing labour market at the end of the century meant that persisting vertical stratification had more severe consequences for blacks than previously, both absolutely and in relative terms. Although change occurred continuously in the post-war decades, from the mid/late seventies, a major shift of established labour market patterns began, which included a rise in unemployment level, structural change and a growth in low-skill work (see Cregan, 1999, for a detailed exposition in relation to young people). Young people were particularly affected by these changes. Between 1979 and 1981, unemployment for 16-19 year olds nearly trebled to reach 24 per cent for males and 21 per cent for unmarried females (Department of Employment Gazette, January 1983). During the last two decades of the century, on average about 1 in youths continued to be unemployed. This new plateau of youth unemployment was engendered by a number of factors including a general decline in demand and a shift to the service sector from a manufacturing industry. This was important because the latter had been the largest employer of both young males and young females in 1979 (Department of Employment Gazette, March 1992). There is also evidence of a polarisation of skill levels during the eighties, (Roberts et al. 1987; Thompson et al. 1993; Gallie 1994; Cregan, 1999) often resulting from the introduction of new technology. This was brought about by employer strategies that included an increase in dead-end work. Certain kinds of workers were an 'attractive source of supply to employers' (Rubery and Tarling, p. 126) for these kinds of jobs. Amongst these were numbered early school-leaving youths with relatively lower levels of qualifications who became increasingly restricted to such work (Payne 1995a).

The increase in unemployment and low-skill work in a situation of vertical stratification meant that demand factors exerted great influence on the labour market situation of young blacks via their 'crowding' at the bottom of labour market queues.

The effect of educational policies on young blacks

Finally, some educationalpolicies, rather than helping young blacks, have exacerbated their plight. For example, Tomlinson (1997) claimed that that Conservative legislation in the form of the 1988, 1992 and 1994 Education Acts, worsened the situation of many black pupils. It introduced a market framework in which parents had choice of school where examination league tables are published, and where schools could make some selection of pupils. School-funding was linked to enrolment. In consequence, she claimed that in this context, minority pupils were most likely to be regarded as undesirable, thus attending 'failing' schools and those with severely reduced budgets, with Afro-Caribbean students faring particularly badly, although black middle-class pupils fared well under such a situation. In a similar vein, (Gillborn, 1995) argued that the marketisation of education had brought about a rise in black male rates of exclusion for unsocial behaviour, presumably because schools wanted to improve their rate of exam ination passes.

Overall, the evidence unequivocally demonstrates that the forces from which vertical stratification emerged persisted throughout the century. They included prejudice, parental labour market disadvantage, poverty and inner city residence and a low level of school qualifications. These were reinforced by economic change. This new labour market context provided a more difficult arena for young blacks. Moreover, educational change did not challenge and sometimes reinforced existing factors that might have undermined this stratification. As a consequence, blacks have not achieved well in school examinations. This has reinforced their disadvantaged position. The result is that black youths who did not proceed to tertiary education were relatively more disadvantaged in the labour market at the start of the new century than at the beginning of the Conservative years.

Young women

1. The phenomenon: increased educational participation but persisting horizontal stratification

In the seventies, following pre-existing patterns (Hakim 1979), young females were occupationally segregated into jobs which provided low opportunities for training (Dex 1985; Roberts and Chadwick 1991). There were pronounced traditional gender differences apparent within industrial groupings(13). A major importance of such segregation was its implications for training via occupational stratification. The largest group of male youth (40 per cent) took up apprenticeships (Metcalf and Richards 1983), almost half of them within the manufacturing sector (Department of Employment (DE) Gazette, March 1982), while a similar proportion of young females entered clerical jobs (Metcalf and Richards 1983). As a consequence, there were fewer and shorter training opportunities in 'female' work. (DE Gazette, March 1982; Metcalf and Richards 1983).These also offered lower financial rewards (Metcalf and Richards 1983) even in the short term (Gregan 1992).

With regard to unemployment, the rate for female youth had been slightly lower than that of young males in the postwar decades but from the mid-1970s it rose at a faster rate (Makeham 1980; Atkinson and Rees 1982; Metcalf and Richards 1983; Rubery and Tarling, 1995). Partly as a response to unemployment, but also due to other reasons (eg, see Raffe, 1992), throughout the fifties and sixties, fulltime education participation rates for females were lower than those for males; but during the 1970s they rose and by 1980/1 for females they were 48 per cent and for males, 54 per cent (Labour Market Quarterly Report, May 1996). This trend accelerated during the eighties until more females than males stayed at school.This is related to gender per se: Gray and Sime (1992), and Gray et al. (1994), demonstrated that, controlling for other factors, females were more likely to stay on at school or colleges of further education than males. In the nineties, Payne (1995a) also found that young women were more likely than you ng men to stay on in full-time education after the end of compulsory schooling. By 1996 the participation rates were 70 per cent for young females and 50 per cent for males'4 (Labour Market Quarterly Report, May 1996).

However. despite this increase in staying-on rates, for this ability group, gender segregation in general also persisted--with its implied level of limited access to training opportunities (Courtenay and MacAleese 1993; Payne 1995a). In spite of evidence of a small move by young women into traditional 'male' opportunities (Courtenay and MacAleese 1993; Payne 1995b), girls were still less likely than boys to receive training (Gourtenay and McAleese 1993). When they did, it was for shorter periods: Payne (1995a) reported that the proportion of females aged 16 and 17 who received no off-the-job training was about a third again as the proportion of males. Moreover, despite its decline, the apprenticeship option still remained important (Roberts and Parsell 1992a0 and the best opportunity of long term job training for early school-leavers (Payne 1995a). Yet Ashford and Gray (1993) found that only 26 per cent of females, compared to 42 per cent of males, were apprentices (15).

Finally, with regard to unemployment, young females were not as advantaged as in the post-war years. Drew (1995), investigating the 1985 and 1986 YCS cohorts, that is, before unemployment benefits were withdrawn from youth, and controlling for other influences, found that being a female conferred an advantage on the job-seeker. After the benefit was withdrawn at the end of the eighties, Sime (1991) (16) found that gender per se was unimportant for school-leavers regarding the probability of finding work.

Overall, findings clearly demonstrate relatively higher stay-on rates for young females, but persisting occupational segregation with its implied lower long-term rewards.

Evidence

Following the pattern of the previous section, evidence will be provided substantiating the veracity of the themes of the argument.

The persistence of the factors underpinning occupational segregation: attitudes and subject choice at school

The nature/nurture arguments regarding gender-based occupations, based on both employer and employee attitudes, lie outside the scope of this paper. However, the increase in staying-on rates in schools might have been expected to be associated with the breaking down of gender segregation via subject choice at school. Yet, in general, subject choice persisted. Some studies found sex stereotyping in boys rather than girls (Archer and McDonald 1991; Lightbody and Durndell 1996; Whitehead, 1996). Young women chose traditional subjects for different reasons. Stables and Stables (1995) reported a relative lack of confidence in girls 'which could conceivably affect ... subject choice and subsequent career choice'. Some studies found inadequate career guidance at schools. (Mirza 1992; Stables and Stables 1995). This is unsurprising. In view of the introduction of league division tables, it is little wonder tha t schools did little significant to encourage girls to alter their subject choice: Game and George (1999) found that, despite a general increase in the examination marks of young females, it was an uneven rise: boys still gained higher examination results in Maths and Physics, traditional 'male' subjects. Finally, Roberts et al. (1987) found that, in general, young women were 'still interested in their occupational career for aspects of fulltime parenting' (p. 49).

The changing labour market

(a) Women returners

Changes in the labour market had a particular impact within the persisting 'female' segment. First, there was an influx of older women in the youth labour market. Between 1985 and 1995, the economic activity rate for women with at least one child aged under 5 rose from 39% to 52% (Labour Market Trends, March 1996). Rubery and Tarling (1995) reported that 'women are being increasingly forced into competition with other disadvantaged groups in their traditional employment areas, particularly from young people' (p. 126). This process had more of an impact on young females than young males because the former were competing not just for jobs in which all unskilled participate, but also in traditional female occupations where older women were already more experienced. Although new word processing technology was introduced into traditional 'female' work in the 1970s and early 1980s (Webster, 1990), women returners were not excluded from these techniques because most office technology was being used for little more t han enhancing the productivity of routine tasks (Liff 1990). Thus, adult females, already experienced in keyboard skills, could be easily upskilled by firms. Returners, therefore, acted to keep out 16 year old young women who stayed on longer in schools and colleges of further education to gain the old manual skill now embedded in the new technology.

There is strong evidence to support this viewpoint. Payne (1995a) concluded that, since the late 1980s, of the early school-leaving cohort, the boys who gained general training opportunities in the form of apprenticeships left school at 16. However, their female counterparts who wanted to take up clerical and secretarial jobs had to stay on an extra year (either in full-time education or in Youth Training) to acquire equivalent 'female' training. Moreover, there is evidence of a marked decline in the proportion of young people (in the main, young women) in the 'clerical and related' occupational category (Payne 1995a) relative to adults. Clearly, there was an influx of older women in such 'female' occupations.

(b) Growth in dead-end work

Second, some young women chose to stay on at school, rather than participate in the new low-skill jobs: dead-end work particularly characterised the 'female' sector (Gallie 1994). In fact, MacEwan Scott (1995) reported that in the retail industry, employers distinguished between skilled and unskilled sales workers, viewing married women as the former and school-leavers as the latter.

In summary, although young people were affected generally by changes in economic context, within their occupational segment, these demand factors had a particular impact on early school-leaving females. They were compelled to stay on at school longer than previously to acquire the necessary qualifications to enable them to compete for traditional gender-based jobs.

The effect of educational policies on young women

Finally, young women stayed on in secondary education to take up the new GCSE courses in traditional 'female' commercial and secretarial subjects and the introduction of such courses acted as important 'pull' factors after their introduction in 1988 (Raffe 1992). This was partly because they offered worthwhile credentialism: in Spring 1997, as the Conservatives left office, unemployment rates for 18/19 year old females, ie, those who had stayed on at school, were lower than those for equivalent males: 10.6 per cent and 18.2 per cent respectively (Labour Market Trends, December 1997). Payne (1995a) demonstrated that females had improved in their GCSE results more than males so, unlike in the post-war decades, in England and Wales in the 1990s females were more likely than males to gain GCSEs and A-levels (Lightbody et al. 1996; Social Trends 1996; Lightbody et al. 1997; Barber, 1999). Gaine and George (1999) claimed that 'girls are outstripping boys at almost every subject at GCSE' (p. 132). However, the same qualifications continued to lead to different job opportunities for each gender (Roberts et al. 1987). Young women who stayed in full-time education were more likely than young males in the same situation to leave after Year 12, and less likely to transfer to GCE A-levels/As courses after re-sitting the GCSE examination (Payne, 1995a). Game and George (1999) concluded that 'girls are achieving better exam results than boys at age 16. There is little evidence that this is leading to improved post-16 opportunities' (p. 103).

Overall, although in recent years young women have higher secondary participation rates and gain better examination results than males, the labour market disadvantage of those who do not proceed to tertiary education has continued with respect to gaining opportunities in work which leads to long-term rewards. The reason is that, despite the homogenisation of much traditional youth work, in general young females did not use their qualifications to enter the 'male' market. Thus, still largely restricted to gender-based work, in the changed economy of the 1980s and 1990s they faced competition from older female returners, especially in the traditional clerical and secretarial areas, and were 'pushed' out of the labour market. More than this, rather than take up dead-end work at the bottom of this hierarchy, some of them willingly stayed in education. The development of up-to-date training which secondary education provided in the transferable skills of commercial subjects gave effective credentials for young fem ales that, however, further confined them to their own sector which many young males were socialised not to enter. Horizontal stratification was thus reinforced.

Conclusions and implications

Summary of findings

The findings demonstrate that, relative to their respective counterparts, both black and female early school-leavers remain disadvantaged at the start of the new century. In general, by the end of the nineties, black and female youths who had stayed at school for a year or two after the legal requirement was fulfilled were at least as badly off as their early school-leaver counterparts had been twenty years earlier.

As distinctive groups, their schooling had not paid off in terms of ameliorating their positions. Roberts and Chadwick (1991) reported that 'the old predictors of occupational attainment ... (including race and gender) ... were in sound working order' (p. 48). This was because racial 'crowding' and gender-based occupational stratification continued to exert their respective influences in a changed economic context which provided fewer opportunities for youth than previously and for these groups in particular. Moreover, new educational policies were unable to counter these influences and may even have consolidated them.

First, with regard to young blacks, many of this group were even worse off than in the post-war years, despite greater educational participation than whites. Black examination under-achievement has been blamed for this situation: young blacks have failed to take advantage of the opportunities they have been offered. It is unsurprising, however, that young people with the same racial characteristics as those who had found it difficult to achieve examination success in the growth years of the fifties and sixties were hostile and more greatly discouraged from making the efforts to achieve success in the eighties and nineties. Indeed, there was a general 'qualifications inflation' apparent at the time (Roberts 1995) and Sime et al. (1990) reported that school-leavers needed higher qualifications than previously to get the same kind of work. Some of the examination failure of blacks, therefore, can be seen as a symptom of their discouragement emanating from their position in the newly created 'underclass' (Ainley, 1993, p. 93). This further reinforces their disadvantaged position. Indeed, Roberts (1995) suggested that some sections of posti6 education in Britain seem to have taken on a 'coolingout' function which merely demonstrates to these young people that they lack ability. In this way, their aspirations are subdued. Roberts and Parsell (1992a) claimed that the Conservative government's education policies 'sidetracked' the most disadvantaged youth. They were a 'huge success', in that they concealed economic and political failures 'by convincing the wider society and even the young victims themselves that the latter were to blame for their own difficulties in becoming established in the workforce' (p. 251).

Second, with regard to young women, the evidence flies even more clearly in the face of popular beliefs: in relation to young men, most young women face an equally disadvantaged labour market position than in the post-war years despite taking advantage of increased schooling by performing better than young males in examinations. In such a situation, why do they persist in their academic endeavours? The crucial point is that, relative to black experience, young women in a gender-based stratum, are not disadvantaged by factors associated with their group characteristic because they are competing with youth of the same gender. That is, unlike blacks, they cannot be discriminated against by virtue of their identifying characteristic. Consequently, they can follow their quest for individual betterment--albeit at the expense of other members of their sex--to gain access to ports of entry to 'female' work, knowing that the group factor is irrelevant. An increase in qualifications is a rational response to a situatio n where they can move up the job ladder in their own segment. Their strength, however, is their limitation because while examination success might bring advantage to the individual female, it has no effect on the overall gender training differential while segregation persists. Moreover, the effectiveness of 'female' skill credentials reinforces gender segregation in a situation where young males at school are not choosing such subjects, 'male' apprenticeships are declining and young male unemployment rates are higher than those of young women.

Policy implications

These findings make very depressing reading. Educational policies to improve the quality of labour supply have failed dismally to improve the long-term career chances of black and female youths in the face of the severe constraints imposed by the demand factors of labour market structure and economic change. Opportunities to acquire credentials have not broken down the segments that cause disadvantage to those blacks and females who do not proceed to tertiary education. Nor have they opened up ports of entry for them to those careers which offer greatest lifetime financial rewards. The question that must be asked is whether these bounds of constraint are so tight that no strategy of reform is possible. Three major influences have been identified: labour market stratification, changing economic context and educational reform. However, labour market stratification is based on influences too deeply formed to be affected easily by government edict; moreover, labour market opportunity is unlikely to be engendered in the current political climate and, in any case, other things being equal, would lead only to absolute rather than relative gain by these groups.

In fact, of the three influences, educational reform is the most easy to manipulate. But in relation to black and female youth, Conservative policy has been demonstrated to be ineffective and even deleterious in relation to these two groups. Although labelled as 'Toryism with more money', (Economist, 1999), the education policies of New Labour have a different thrust than those of the Conservative governments of the eighties and nineties. There are clear attempts to provide specific help to the poor and disadvantaged: for example, a move against secondary school selection of students on grounds of 'ability', attempts to lift numeracy and literacy levels, 'learning mentors', special units for disruptive pupils. There has even been some targetting of particular groups: the 'Excellence in Cities' policy (March 24, 1999) for inner city education. Nevertheless, these programmes lie firmly within the previous market-based approach. In particular, the 'naming and shaming' league division tables of school performance have been promoted and reinforced. This notion of job evaluation and pupil performance has recently been extended to individual teachers (April 1, 2000), with policies of performance related pay.

However, the implications of the findings of this article are that such schemes will not erode black and female disadvantage and may even accentuate it. This is because they will encourage the entrenchment of labour market stratification via examination performance and exclusion from schools for blacks and subject choice (for women) in ways already apparent. The disadvantage of these groups is embedded within labour market structures that are based in deep social attitudes that have been reinforced by economic change. Educational measures that are premised on encouraging the response of these groups to educational opportunities are thus doomed to failure, as they merely reinforce existing influences rather than break them down. That is, attempts to affect labour supply are ineffective when demand forces dominate so strongly.

The government intends to spend an extra billion pounds on education (Economist 1999) so, in the case of blacks, it may be possible to make some kind of limited change within its current programme, but by 'turning it on its head'. The most effective help might lie in using the controversial league tables of schools as a market signal to indicate where government aid is most necessary: that is, to identify targets for aid rather then blame. Rather than performance related pay for teachers, a salary supplement for all might attract more applicants for jobs in such schools. The possibility of achieving examination success in a better funded educational environment might induce more effort and success from black school-children, thereby convincing themselves and some employers of their worth. In the longer term, any subsequent increase in numbers of black youth in jobs generally, and some of those which offer prospects, should reduce prejudice and raise black expectations. For young women, the problem is more com plex as the nature/nurture argument remains unresolved. Government assistance to school-based career guidance counselling might bring about some reduction in horizontal stratification by providing more information to both sexes about jobs and necessary subject choice. Armed with greater knowledge, both sexes may take up different subjects at school. In particular, if the decline in male apprenticeships is not halted and male youth employment remains relatively high, young men may help break down gender segregation by opting for traditional 'female' transferable training offered in commercial subjects in school, particularly if jobs remain available on the completion of such choices. Crucial for both blacks and women is that ports of entry are available in later life for those who were not able to gain access in the years of their youth: financial provision for adult education and training could help bring this about. These policies, however, depend on long-term changes in social attitudes for their continuing success. Moreover, the economic environment is uncertain and acts as a major limiting factor.

Overall, the picture that emerges from this analysis of research findings over the last decades is that labour market structures within the current economic context impose very tight constraints for programmes that seek the improvement of opportunities for black and female youths. In the short term, the government is well advised to reject shame-based performance related schemes in schools as they may further disadvantage these groups. Indeed, the best policies may be those that merely cause no further harm to the well-being of those groups of young people who have remained vulnerable and disadvantaged right through to the start of the twenty first century.

Table 1

Summary of findings of secondary material: young blacks and disadvantage

                                  1  2  3  4  5

Lee and Wrench 1983               x  -  -  -  -
Sillitoe and Metzer 1985          x  -  x  -  -
Swann 1985                        x  x  x  -  x
Drew 1995                         x  -  -  -  -
Lynch 1987                        x  -  -  -  -
Roberts et al 1987                X  -  -  -  -
Sime 1991                         X  -  -  -  -
Drew et al 1992                   x  -  -  -  -
Educational Statistics 1992       -  -  x  -  -
Foster 1992                       -  -  -  -  x
Mirza 1992                        -  -  -  x  -
Roberts et al 1992                -  -  -  -  x
Jones 1993                        x  x  -  -  -
Drew 1995                         x  -  -  -  -
Gillborn 1995                     -  -  -  x  -
Booth and Satchell 1996           x  -  -  -  -
Sly et all 1997                   -  x  -  -  -
Tomlinson 1997                    -  -  -  x  -

1 A racial effect on job chances
   (prejudice)
2 Parental unemployment
3 Poor examinations
4 Educational policies
5 Poverty, etc

Acknowledgements

I would like to acknowledge the advice and help I received from Ed Heery and his unusual level of collegiality. This research was part-financed by a University of Melbourne Economics and Commerce Faculty Grant.

Notes

(1.) Terms used to describe racial groups and males/females must be used carefully. In the British literature, the term 'black' is usually used to refer to Africans, Garibbeans and Asians from the Indian sub-continent, who might define themselves in this way. The terms 'West Indians/Guyanans (Caribbean)s', 'Africans', 'Asians', etc, will refer to those of that origin, whether born in the UK or not. The terms 'non-whites' and 'ethnic minorities' will refer to all of those groups who do not classify themselves as white. The term 'immigrants' will refer to all those not born in the UK. When reporting empirical work, the definitions of the relevant author will be used. With regard to males and females, the term 'sex' refers to biological differences whereas 'gender' refers to the manner in which cultures define or constrain such differences. Thus, in general, 'gender' will be used regarding labour market identity and, following Lightbody and Durndell (1996), 'sex' always refers to the biological sex of the subjec ts and the ascribed sex/gender of a hypothetical individual' (p. 134). The terminology relating to young people will be employed as it is customarily used in British work (eg, Ashton et al, 1982; Ashton and Maguire, 1986). 'Youth(s)' and 'early school-leaver(s)' will refer to 16-17 year old male and females pre 1988, when unemployment benefits were removed for that age group, 16-18 year olds thereafter. The term 'young people' will be used generally.

(2.) During the post-war years, about 10% of young people stayed on in full-time education. However, there was a slowly rising trend till the youth educational participation rate more than doubled from the late seventies to the mid eighties (Department of Education Statistical Bulletin, July 1992). There was a second rising trend beginning in 1989/90 and by 1991/2, nearly two thirds of 16 year olds remained in full-time education. This new pattern persisted and by the end of the Conservative era, less than a tenth of 16 year olds was in full-time employment (Yates, 1996).

(3.) See Gaine and George (1999) for a justification of dealing with ethnic and gender-based groups as different 'types'.

(4.) There are disaggregated figures: within the ethnic minority groups, rates for Africans/Garibbeans, Indians and Pakistanis/Bangladeshis were 20.7 per cent, 12.8 per cent and 22.5 per cent respectively (Labour Force Survey Quarterly Bulletin, June 1984).

(5.) These concluded changes in social and cultural attitudes to education, the rise of individualism, 'new vocationalism' and the introduction of GCSE, deregulation of education, the emergence of new norms.

(6.) The LMT survey also reported trends in unemployment broadly similar to all labour market participants, but with increases and decreases more pronounced than among white people: following the findings of Payne and Payne (1994), this probably reflecting the high proportion of youth among non-whites.

(7.) Black school-leavers were more likely to be without a Youth Training place then whites (Starting Right, 1994) and black youths were concentrated in schemes with the poorest job prospects (Gross and Smith 1987).

(8.) The findings of the Macpherson Inquiry on February 24, 2000 show evidence of institutional racism in the police force similar to those reported in the Scarman Report after the 'Brixton Riots 'in 1981.

(9.) By autumn 1996, the rates for Africans/Caribbeans, Indians and Pakistanis/Bangladeshis were 22 per cent, 12 per cent and 27 per cent respectively (Sly et al. 1997).

(10.) This is a complex issue which lies outside the scope of this paper. MacIntosh, as part of the Swann Report (1985), showed that IQ was not a significant cause of lack of examination success for blacks- and that Asian success relative to Caribbeans was not based on 'ability'. Cultural influences were found to be important for Asians: Gupra (1977) claimed that Asian school-children were ambitious and had high aspirations. Roberts et al. (1987) reported that Asian youth had a different attitude to education than Caribbeans, 'but a depressingly similar experience' (p. 139) in the labour market.

(11.) There is no reliable analysis of examination results of black girls relative to white boys, controlling for class, etc. Certainly, the results do imply that black males fared less well than black females. It is even more difficult to find evidence regarding differences between ethnic minority youths. There does seem to be a slight upward trend in the economic activity rate of Pakistani/Bangladeshi women (Labour Market Trends, 1996c), which may well be most pronounced among the very young. However, at 25%, it still remains the lowest of any racial group (Labour Marker Trends, 1996). Moreover, relative to any other racial group, a greater proportion of Pakistani/Bangladesh males than females have an educational qualification (Education Statistics for the , 1992).

(12.) By the mid-1980s, of those that lived in city areas, 31 per cent were white and 68 per cent non-white. Of the latter, 85 per cent of west Indians and non-Chinese Asians, the two largest minority groups, were city residents (Rajan et al. 1996).

(13.) In manufacturing, young men (under 20) were heavily represented in mechanical engineering and metal goods, with young women in textiles and footwear; in the service sector, although both were highly represented in distribution, boys were represented in construction and miscellaneous services, and girls in insurance, banking and finance (Makeharn, 1980).

(14.) These figures are supported by data from 1991 which disaggregates by genders; with regard to males and females respectively, 56 per cent and 70 per cent returned to full-time education, 12 per cent and 8 per cent gained work and 17 per cent and rz per cent took up Yr (Slade, 1992).

(15.) Blanchflower and Lynch (1992) reported that male apprenticeships in Britain were of 43 months duration on average, while for females, the corresponding figure 34 months and that apprenticeships offered a higher rate of return to men (relative to those without them) but not to women. Payne (1995b) found lower returns for training (including apprenticeships) to females tan to males.

(16.) Gray et al. (1994) also found gender unimportant, but their sample consisted of cohorts from 1986, 1988 and 1990, that is, from before and after the benefit was withdrawn.

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Yates, J. (ed.) (1996) School-leavers Destinations 1995, London: UK Heads of Careers Services Associations.

Christina Cregan is Senior Lecturer in Industrial Relations at the University of Melbourne and holds a PhD from the LSE. Her recent book, Young people in the workplace: job, union and mobility patterns has been published in the Warwick 'Workplace in Context' series.