Arafat's Leadership To Face First Impact Of A 'Bush Doctrine' For The Middle East.

*** Despite The Constraints That Qurei Will Have To Work Under, Many Observers Believe He May Last Longer As Premier Than His Predecessor Mahmoud Abbas, Partly Because He Has A Much Bigger Popular Support Base Than Abbas Ever Had

*** Washington Passes A Bill Calling On Syria To End Its Support For Terror Groups And To Withdraw Its Forces From Lebanon; If Damascus Does Not Comply, It Will Face Incremental Sanctions & Possible Attack From Israel

NICOSIA - The landmark speech by US President George Bush to the National Endowment for Democracy, focusing on democratisation of the Middle East, is the subject of intense scrutiny by most Arab regimes and the Shiite theocracy in Iran. Depending on which regime is doing the scrutiny, the contents of the speech are being interpreted either positively or negatively. President Bush's remarks, however, were calibrated well enough to send subtle messages to leaders throughout the Arab world and Iran. The most immediate message was for the Palestinian leadership: with Yasser Arafat set to undermine the ability of Prime Minister Ahmed Qurei to provide security for Israel through peace negotiations, Washington is poised to either wash its hands off the Palestinian issue for the foreseeable future, or let PM Ariel Sharon expel Arafat from the Palestinian territories.

A highly-placed APS source says this toughening stance is connected with the emergence of a "stubborn US-Israeli military front which will aim at Arab capitulation and a total change in the culture of the Arab world". Both Sharon and Bush believe that only in a post-capitulation culture based on true democracy will the Arabs become ready for peace with Israel. This front will lay more emphasis on total change at the grassroots level than on early Arab-Israeli peace arrangements. Both the Bush administration and Sharon's Likud-led government appear convinced that real peace between the Arabs and Israel would be impossible until such a change has occurred, but this extent of change can only occur after Arab capitulation.

The source adds that what the US expects from the Palestinian leadership, i.e. capitulation and a change of culture at the grassroots level, is what the Bush administration and its successors will expect from the rest of the Middle East in the coming years. In effect, what the administration wants is for regimes in the Middle East to change themselves in a drastic way if they are to avoid incremental pressures, with the last resort being military action aimed at regime change. The speech by Bush also suggests that, come what may in terms of military casualties, American forces are to stay in Iraq and other countries of the Middle East for years.

The source perceives in the speech the beginnings of a "Bush doctrine" for the Middle East, whereby a combination of carrots and sticks will be used. Rewards will be given to those who are prepared to change in the way the US wants, and this means changing how countries in the area have functioned ever since their independence over the past six decades. The Palestinian leadership looks set to become the test case for such change, if Arafat decides to cede real power to the government of Qurei - although this seems unlikely (see overleaf).

Democracy will be a central pillar of the Bush doctrine, with the president expressing the neo-conservative view that, since American engagement with and support for regimes in the Middle East over the past decades has not resulted in a pro-US sentiment among the general public, the only option left is to insist on democratisation. Bush pointed out in his Nov. 6 speech: "Our commitment to democracy is also tested in the Middle East, which is my focus today and must be a focus of American policy for decades to come. In many nations in the Middle East, countries of great strategic importance, democracy has not yet taken root".

Bush added: "The United States has adopted a new policy, a forward strategy of freedom in the Middle East". He set the tone of his message to key regional leaders at three levels: (1) an implicit criticism of the royal regime in Saudi Arabia, (2) a direct criticism of and advice to the Mubarak regime of Egypt, and (3) an explicit condemnation of the Baathist regime of Syria - with Iran mentioned alongside.

According to the APS source, it is becoming clearer that the Bush administration is beginning to view American involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan and eventually in other countries of the Middle East as something similar to the anti-Communist cold war in scope, with the adversary this time being a combination of Islamic fanaticism and dictatorships. The source says there is a recognition that the current adversary is far weaker than the Communist bloc in many ways, but it is stronger in other ways; few Communists would have carried out "suicide bombings" for instance - one of the main security challenges US forces are facing in Iraq and the main challenge Sharon's forces are facing in Israel.

If the tactic succeeds in pushing the US out of Iraq, the source points out that it will then be applied wherever else US forces are deployed in the Middle East, and eventually on the American and European mainlands. The source believes it will also encourage intransigence among regimes in the Middle East in terms of democratisation.