Arab Summit Will Not Be Able To End Rifts Or Promote Real Co-operation.

** President Hosni Mubarak Has Warned Of Chaos If Something Should Happen To Arafat, But Israel Is Not Likely To Physically Harm The Palestinian Leader; Sharon Is More Intent On Humiliating Him By Virtual House Arrest & By Getting Him To Admit That He Was Aware Of The Arms Shipment That Was Intercepted By Israel In January

** Tough American Rhetoric On Iraq & Iran Is Causing European Leaders To Worry About 'Cowboy Tactics'

NICOSIA - Well informed APS sources, closely following the preparations underway for the Arab Summit to be held on March 25-26 in Beirut, say the meeting this year will not be much different from those of recent years in terms of its real outcome. They note that efforts are being made to end the divisions that have plagued the Arabs since the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait in August 1990, but Arab League Secretary General Amr Moussa of Egypt has not had much success in reconciling the Iraqi and Kuwaiti leaderships. Indeed, the fact that not all the leaders of the Arab World are expected to attend the summit - notably Iraqi President Saddam Hussein - is itself an indicator of the lack of cohesion within the League.

There are significant differences in opinion about how the Arabs as a whole should deal with the two key issues facing the region today: the end of the Middle East peace process and the continuing sanctions against Iraq. On both questions, the answer from the Arab World in general terms resembles a single position - i.e. Israel should pull out of the occupied territories and the sanctions against Iraq should end. But, the sources say, "the difficulty is in the details". The Arabs have so far been unable to come to a unified position on how Israel should be made to leave the occupied territories, and on how they should get the US and Britain to agree to end the embargo on Iraq.

The complexity of the situation has increased since Sept. 11, 2001. At present the US is in no mood to listen to Arab criticisms of Israel or of American policy on Iraq. Public opinion in the US is of the view that Palestinian President Yasser Arafat missed a key chance to make peace with Israel during the Barak government. There is, as such, little sympathy for the fact that Arafat is virtually under house arrest with the forces of Israeli Premier Ariel Sharon parked just metres from his residence.

On the question of Iraq, far from ending the embargo against the regime, the focus is now on launching a military campaign designed to oust the regime of Saddam Hussein from power. According to some estimates, an attack against Iraq could be launched as early as next May. And Bush's Republican administration has received support from top Democratic Senator Joseph Lieberman, the same man whose support for military action in 1990 helped the elder Bush to prosecute Operations Desert Shield and Desert Storm. On Feb. 6, Secretary of State Colin Powell told the House International Relations Committee that President Bush is set on a "regime change" in Iraq and that it is something the US "might have to do alone" - i.e. finish the task his father started in 1991 (see News Service No. 7).

The sources believe that the planned Arab Summit is being viewed dismissively in the West, where the emphasis is on how the countries in the region should concentrate on reforming themselves. At the most, the Arab states allied to the US are expected to play supporting roles by reflecting the American perspective at the summit, or by ensuring that no anti-US resolutions are passed. This effectively means that no resolution can be passed at the summit that will satisfy public opinion in the Arab World, although the language can be expected to be stronger than last year given the events of recent months in the territories nominally controlled by the Palestinians.

Some Arab countries are more enthusiastic about applying pressure on Israel, such as Iraq and Syria, owing to their own strategic considerations as well as self-preservation instincts. Other regimes, allied closely to the US and dependent on it for protection, tend to be less confrontational in their approach. This divergent approach has been visible since Sept. 13, 1993, when the Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO) signed the Declaration of Principles with Israel in Washington. The sources say there is virtually no chance that the Arab states will be able to reconcile their different ways of dealing with the Arab-Israeli situation, despite the fact that the peace process has collapsed to a point where the opportunity for unifying their positions is the greatest in decades.

Writing in the 'International Herald Tribune' of Feb. 8, columnist Thomas L. Friedmann penned a "Memo to President Hosni Mubarak, Crown Prince Abdullah, King Abdullah, President Bashar Assad and the rest of the Arab League". In it, he suggested that the summit issue "one simple resolution", as follows: "The 22 members of the Arab League say to Israel that in return for a complete Israeli withdrawal to the June 4, 1967, lines - in the West Bank, Gaza, Jerusalem and on the Golan Heights - we offer full recognition of Israel, diplomatic relations, normalised trade and security guarantees. Full peace, with all 22 Arab states for full withdrawal". He added, "you've all told me privately that this is your position".

The chances of a resolution along these lines coming out of the Arab summit are nil, the sources point out. This is not only because of differences within the League, but also because making such a move at this point would be seen as a surrender to Sharon, something which none of the leaders in the Arab World can do - and which public opinion will not tolerate.

Arab divergences on Iraq are equally wide. Despite numerous efforts to forge reconciliation between Iraq and each of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, bitterness remains. Saudi Arabia allows Iraqis into the country only to participate in the annual Muslim pilgrimage, the hajj. In December 2001, a 2002 World Cup soccer qualifying match between Iraq and Saudi Arabia was played in nearby Bahrain because the kingdom would not permit the Iraqi team into the country.

For his part, Saddam Hussein has not tried to improve relations either. On the contrary, he has made prospects for normalisation of relations even more difficult by constantly taunting the Gulf regimes as puppets of the US. In one such move last December, when violence between the Israelis and Palestinians had reached a high point, he suggested an emergency Arab summit to be held at Mecca to discuss Israeli attacks on Palestinians. The suggestion was seen as a way of subtly insulting Saudi Arabia, which Baghdad knew could not accept such a proposal.

The sources raise the possibility that, despite the bitterness, there could be some movement towards reconciliation at the summit, but a full-fledged normalisation of ties in the near future is unlikely. Hints about an improvement in relations came from Egyptian President Mubarak who told Kuwaiti News Agency (KUNA) on Feb. 5 any conciliation between Kuwait and Iraq must be via the Arab summit, but it should be well prepared in order to reach a smooth and understandable compromise by both sides. He also said the UN and Arab League secretary-generals would have to be involved.

However, the sources maintain, that the summit would need to go beyond cosmetic efforts to end animosity between member states if the Arab countries are to have any influence on events in their own region. One of the top priorities of the summit would be for the leaders to recognise the ways in which the world has changed since Sept. 11, 2001, and the manner in which the American perspective of the Middle East itself has changed. The sources believe that the implications of the change in the American perspective mean far more in real terms for the regimes in the League today than their positions on the Arab-Israeli conflict or over the embargo on Iraq.