Arab Quartet Is Born, As USA Shift From Democratisating To Consolidating ME Allies.

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BEIRUT - An Arab Quartet was born during the Middle East (ME) visit of US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice on March 24-27. Its three permanent members are in this order of importance, relative to Washington: Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Egypt. The fourth member is the alternating chair of the six-state Arab Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC), at present the UAE. Its mission is to shadow the International Quartet for Arab-Israel peace, which consists of the US, EU, UN and Russia.

Creation of the Arab Quartet, for which preparations had been made in 2006, marked a retreat in the ME priority of the George W. Bush administration from democratisation to "regime consolidation" of its allies in the region. Ms Rice's presence in the ME coincided with President Hosni Mubarak's swift amendment of the Egyptian constitution which boosted his "neo-dictatorship" (see overleaf).

The Arab Quartet's first meeting was held on March 24 in Aswan, Upper Egypt, and was the opening of Ms Rice's ME tour just before the Arab League's 19th Summit Conference met in Riyadh on March 28-29. This was part of "new ideas" which Ms Rice had promised to bring to the Middle East before she began her tour. In Aswan Rice met with the Arab Quartet's foreign ministers and intelligence chiefs.

With the Saudi/Arab peace plan relaunched by the Riyadh summit (see news13-RiyadhArabPeacePlanMar26-07), keen observers of the ME are focusing on the difference between "neo-dictatorships" and the old dictatorships. The latter have to be changed into or replaced by "neo-democracies", whereas the former have been given a grace period during which they can upgrade themselves at ease.

Step by step for the past six years the US has been surrounding Iran militarily, economically, and politically. As a unanimous UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution on March 24 added further sanctions against Tehran, one of the roles the Arab Quartet is to play in the new cycle is to complete Iran's encirclement (see survey of Iran's petroleum sector in omt14IranProspctApr2-07).

The two UNSC powers on which Iran counted for support, Russia and China, are no longer on board as they used to be. Post-March 24 moves indicate that the Shi'ite theocracy of Tehran is miscalculating things dangerously (see fap4-Iraq-USsurroundingIranApr2-07).

The Arab Quartet last week saw Israel edge towards acceptance of an international conference as a means of breaking the deadlock in the peace process with the Palestinians. The initiative emerged at the start of a week of diplomatic activity unprecedented in recent years. Ms Rice on March 26 shuttled between the two sides during her fourth visit to the region in as many months.

In Jerusalem, UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon held talks with Israeli leaders a day after a visit to the West Bank. Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert responded positively to a suggestion by Ban that Israelis and Palestinians might attend a joint meeting of Arab and international peacemakers, including Saudi Arabia.

Olmert said he "would not hesitate to participate" in an expanded meeting of the international Quartet and the Arab Quartet. Ban shied away from confirming the meeting would happen, and UN officials warned there was some way to go before it was a done deal. Ban said: "We need more consultation among the partners and countries concerned".

Olmert has warmed to the initiative in recent weeks, referring to positive aspects of a plan offering Israel normalisation of relations with the Arabs in return for territory occupied in 1967. But while Israel rejected references to a right of return to Israel of Palestinian refugees contained in the Arab plan, Ms Rice's shuttle reflected the Bush administration's wish for a diplomatic victory in the Middle East after its reverses in Iraq. But Olmert seems to be on the verge of collapse in view of his falling popularity in Israel, while Bush is fighting an uphill battle with Democrats in new US politics challenging his performance on Iraq.

Saudi Arabia and other US-backed Sunni Arab states are increasing their involvement in order to neutralise the growth of Iranian influence in the region. Israel, which perceives a similar challenge from Iran, has an interest in drawing closer to the Arab Quartet.

However, a deadlocked bilateral process between Israel and the Palestinians is complicated by the formation of a power-sharing cabinet in the Palestinian Authority (PA). Ban said the new Palestinian national unity government - non-Hamas members of which he met on March 25 - should be given "political space" and that the international community should encourage it as much as possible. But Israel refuses to have contact with any ministers in a government in which Hamas participates. Olmert on March 25 told his cabinet the PA's government platform legitimised violence, warning: "This will not ease - in the near future - contacts between us and the Palestinian Authority". Yet Olmert and Abbas have agreed to meet every two weeks, and Rice on March 27 said she would attend such meetings occasionally.