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Appendix B: forecast detail.

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DOI: 10.1177/0027950111411372
Table B1. Real GDP growth and inflation

                          Real GDP growth (per cent)

                 2008   2009    2010   2011   2012   2013-17

Australia         2.6     1.3    2.7    2.5    3.1     2.6
Austria           2.2    -3.9    2.1    2.1    2.0     1.5
Belgium           0.8    -2.7    2.1    2.0    1.5     1.8
Bulgaria          6.2    -5.5    0.1    2.6    4.2     2.6
Brazil            5.2    -0.7    7.5    3.9    4.0     3.6
China             9.3     8.9   10.4    9.1    7.6     7.0
Canada            0.5    -2.5    3.1    2.9    2.7     2.5
Czech Republic    2.3    -4.0    2.2    2.6    3.2     1.8
Denmark          -1.1    -5.2    2.1    2.0    1.9     1.9
Estonia          -5.1   -13.9    3.1    4.2    4.2     2.4
Finland           1.0    -8.3    3.1    3.6    2.6     2.0
France            0.1    -2.5    1.5    1.6    1.9     1.9
Germany           0.7    -4.7    3.5    2.6    2.3     2.1
Greece            1.0    -2.0   -4.5   -2.5    2.1     2.1
Hong Kong         2.3    -2.7    6.8    4.9    4.4     2.4
Hungary           0.6    -6.5    1.1    2.8    3.1     2.4
India             6.4     5.7   10.4    7.9    7.6     6.4
Ireland          -3.6    -7.6   -1.0    0.0    2.6     3.0
Italy            -1.3    -5.2    1.2    1.0    1.6     1.5
Japan            -1.2    -6.3    4.0    1.1    2.7     1.5
Lithuania         2.8   -14.7    1.3    2.9    4.6     3.1
Latvia           -4.1   -17.8   -0.5    3.9    4.3     2.5
Mexico            1.5    -6.1    5.5    4.1    4.6     3.6
Netherlands       1.9    -3.9    1.8    1.8    1.8     1.5
New Zealand      -0.9     0.0    2.3    0.8    3.1     2.7
Norway            0.6    -1.2    0.4    2.6    3.0     1.9
Poland            5.0     1.7    3.8    4.2    4.8     3.6
Portugal          0.0    -2.5    1.4   -1.3    0.4     1.5
Romania           7.4    -7.1   -1.3    1.5    3.1     3.4
Russia            5.2    -7.9    4.0    4.6    5.8     4.6
South Africa      3.4    -1.7    4.2    3.3    3.3     3.3
5. Korea          2.3     0.3    6.2    4.4    4.6     3.8
Slovakia          5.8    -4.8    4.0    4.2    4.6     2.7
Slovenia          3.5    -8.4    1.1    2.3    2.7     2.1
Spain             0.9    -3.7   -0.1    0.9    1.5     2.9
Sweden           -0.8    -5.3    5.3    4.2    2.4     2.0
Switzerland       1.9    -1.9    2.6    2.3    2.5     2.1
Taiwan            0.7    -1.9   10.8    4.3    4.5     4.4
UK               -0.1    -4.9    1.3    1.4    2.0     2.5
US                0.0    -2.6    2.9    2.6    2.6     2.8
Euro Area         0.3    -4.0    1.7    1.7    1.9     2.0
EU-27             0.4    -4.2    1.7    1.8    2.1     2.1
OECD              0.3    -3.5    2.9    2.4    2.6     2.5
World             2.8    -0.6    5.2    4.4    4.4     3.9

                       Annual inflation (a) (per cent)

                 2008   2009   2010   2011   2012    2013-17

Australia         2.8    1.6    1.9    2.7     2.4     2.6
Austria           3.2    0.4    1.7    2.8     1.8     2.1
Belgium           4.5    0.0    2.3    3.7     2.4     2.0
Bulgaria         11.9    2.5    3.0    2.4     4.0     2.4
Brazil            5.6    4.9    5.1    4.9     3.4     5.2
China             5.8   -0.7    3.3    4.6     4.0     1.8
Canada            1.6    0.5    1.3    3.0     2.6     2.0
Czech Republic    6.3    0.6    1.2    2.1     2.5     2.4
Denmark           3.6    1.1    2.2    2.6     2.1     1.7
Estonia          10.6    0.2    2.7    4.1     4.1     2.7
Finland           3.9    1.6    1.7    3.7     2.1     2.2
France            3.2    0.1    1.7    2.7     2.4     2.1
Germany           2.7    0.2    1.2    2.4     2.1     2.1
Greece            4.2    1.3    4.7    3.3     2.0     2.8
Hong Kong         2.9   -1.6    0.8    3.0     3.4     3.1
Hungary           6.0    4.0    4.7    4.2     3.6     3.5
India             8.3   10.9   12.0   14.4     7.5     4.6
Ireland           3.1   -1.7   -1.6    1.1     1.0     2.3
Italy             3.5    0.8    1.6    2.3     2.1     2.4
Japan             0.4   -2.1   -1.5    0.1     1.3     2.0
Lithuania        11.1    4.2    1.2    3.8     4.1     1.3
Latvia           15.3    3.3   -1.2    3.1     5.1     2.8
Mexico            5.1    5.3    4.2    5.2     5.7     3.1
Netherlands       2.2    1.0    0.9    2.3     2.2     1.9
New Zealand       3.6    2.4    1.4    5.1     2.2     1.4
Norway            3.6    2.4    2.1    2.6     2.3     2.1
Poland            4.2    4.0    2.7    3.9     3.0     2.4
Portugal          2.7   -0.9    1.4    3.2     2.4     2.4
Romania           7.9    5.6    6.1    5.0     4.2     3.3
Russia           14.1   11.7    6.9    6.9     5.2     6.0
South Africa      9.5    7.3    4.2    6.8     4.3     1.8
5. Korea          4.7    2.8    3.0    5.8     4.1     3.2
Slovakia          3.9    0.9    0.7    3.4     4.1     2.6
Slovenia          5.5    0.9    2.1    2.5     4.6     2.5
Spain             4.1   -0.2    2.0    3.5     3.3     2.3
Sweden            3.3    1.9    1.9    2.2     2.5     2.1
Switzerland       2.6   -0.4    0.6    1.5     1.4     1.0
Taiwan            2.3   -1.5    0.4    3.0     1.3     2.0
UK                3.6    2.2    3.3    4.5     1.9     1.9
US                3.3    0.2    1.7    3.2     3.6     2.6
Euro Area         3.3    0.3    1.6    2.7     2.3     2.2
EU-27             3.7    1.0    2.1    3.0     2.4     2.2
OECD              2.9    0.3    1.7    2.9     2.9     2.4
World             5.9    2.7    4.1    5.4     4.8     3.4

Notes: (a) Harmonised consumer price inflation in the EU economies
and inflation measured by the consumer expenditure deflator in the
rest of the world.

Table B2. Fiscal balance and government debt

                                 Fiscal balance (per
                                  cent of GDP) (a)

                      2008       2009         2010           2011

Australia              0.4        -4.1       -3.8          -3.4
Austria               -0.5        -3.5       -4.6          -3.9
Belgium               -1.4        -6.1       -4.6          -3.3
Bulgaria               1.7        -4.7       -3.9          -2.6
Canada                 0.0        -5.5       -5.5          -4.7
Czech Republic        -2.7        -5.8       -5.3          -4.7
Denmark                3.4        -2.7       -2.9          -3.8
Estonia               -2.8        -1.7        0.1          -0.9
Finland                4.2        -2.5       -2.5          -1.3
France                -3.3        -7.5       -7.0          -5.9
Germany                0.1        -3.0       -3.3          -1.8
Greece                -9.4       -15.4      -10.6          -8.0
Hungary               -3.7        -4.4       -4.2          -4.1 (c)
Ireland               -7.3       -14.3      -32.0 (d)     -11.5
Italy                 -2.7        -5.3       -4.5          -4.1
Japan                 -2.1        -7.1       -7.6          -7.5
Lithuania             -3.3        -9.2       -8.1          -6.8
Latvia                -4.2       -10.3       -7.6          -6.9
Netherlands            0.5        -5.4       -5.4          -3.7
Poland                -3.7        -7.2       -7.9          -5.6
Portugal              -3.0        -9.4       -8.6          -6.1
Romania               -5.7        -8.6       -6.5          -5.2
Slovakia              -2.1        -7.9       -7.8          -6.4
Slovenia              -1.7        -5.5       -5.5          -5.2
Spain                 -4.2       -11.1        9.2          -6.5
Sweden                 2.2        -0.9        0.0           0.8
UK                    -4.9       -11.2      -10.3          -8.5
US                    -6.4       -11.3      -10.6          -9.6

                    Fiscal balance (per
                     cent of GDP) (a)

                      2012       2017

Australia             -2.4       -2.0
Austria               -3.6       -2.1
Belgium               -2.4       -1.3
Bulgaria              -1.9       -0.4
Canada                -4.2       -2.3
Czech Republic        -4.4       -3.4
Denmark               -3.7       -2.2
Estonia               -1.2       -1.3
Finland               -0.9       -1.7
France                -4.5       -2.4
Germany               -0.3       -1.3
Greece                -7.6       -4.8
Hungary               -3.3       -2.0
Ireland               -8.5       -2.6
Italy                 -3.9       -2.6
Japan                 -6.4       -4.5
Lithuania             -6.8       -2.6
Latvia                -7.2       -3.0
Netherlands           -2.2       -1.0
Poland                -4.4       -2.6
Portugal              -5.2       -2.4
Romania               -5.1       -3.2
Slovakia              -5.5       -2.0
Slovenia              -4.8       -1.3
Spain                 -5.5       -3.0
Sweden                 1.2        0.0
UK                    -7.2       -2.9
US                    -6.9       -4.8

                            Government debt (per cent
                              of GDP, end year) (b)

                      2008       2009       2010       2011

Australia             16.2        22.0       26.0       28.2
Austria               62.9        67.7       69.7       70.4
Belgium               89.8        96.3       97.3       96.5
Bulgaria                --         --          --        --
Canada                72.7        81.6       82.8       80.7
Czech Republic        30.0        35.3       40.1       42.4
Denmark               34.2        41.4       42.4       44.5
Estonia                 --         --          --        --
Finland               34.1        43.8       46.7       47.8
France                67.6        78.1       83.4       86.8
Germany               66.3        73.4       74.8       75.1
Greece               110.3       126.8      143.3      150.8
Hungary               72.3        78.4       78.4       74.5
Ireland               44.3        65.5      100.1      113.5
Italy                106.3       116.0      117.8      118.3
Japan                177.8       193.2      200.4      202.7
Lithuania               --         --          --        --
Latvia                  --         --          --        --
Netherlands           58.2        60.8       64.0       65.0
Poland                47.1        50.9       56.3       57.2
Portugal              65.3        76.1       82.9       88.2
Romania                 --         --          --        --
Slovakia                --         --          --        --
Slovenia                --         --          --        --
Spain                 39.8        53.2       61.7       64.9
Sweden                38.2        41.9       39.8       37.3
UK                    52.1        68.1       76.1       80.8
US                    71.9        83.5       91.4       95.3

                    Government debt (per cent
                     of GDP, end year) (b)

                      2012       2017

Australia              28.9       30.9
Austria                70.2       68.4
Belgium                94.6       87.2
Bulgaria                --         --
Canada                 80.8       77.9
Czech Republic         43.9       51.5
Denmark                45.9       53.1
Estonia                 --         --
Finland                49.0       58.0
France                 87.7       85.1
Germany                72.8       65.8
Greece                151.1      145.7
Hungary                71.8       61.8
Ireland               117.3      105.7
Italy                 116.8      108.0
Japan                 202.2      189.0
Lithuania               --         --
Latvia                  --         --
Netherlands            65.3       59.6
Poland                 57.5       58.6
Portugal               90.2       90.6
Romania                 --         --
Slovakia                --         --
Slovenia                --         --
Spain                  66.5       66.3
Sweden                 34.9       27.5
UK                     85.0       86.4
US                     96.9       95.9

Notes: (a) General government financial balance; Maastricht definition
for EU countries. (b) Maastricht definition for EU countries. (c) We
have not included the one-off revenue impact of recent pension changes
that are expected to push the Hungarian budget into surplus in 2011.
(d) The deficit for Ireland in 2010 includes outlay on bank
recapitalisation amounting to 20 per cent of GDP. The outlays are in
the form of promissory notes and do not require upfront financing.

Table B3. Unemployment and current account balance

                          Standardised unemployment rate (a)

                  2008     2009     2010     2011     2012    2013-17

Australia          4.2      5.6      5.2      4.8      4.2       4.4
Austria            3.8      4.8      4.4      5.2      4.8       4.2
Belgium            7.0      7.9      83       7.6      6.9       7.1
Bulgaria           5.6      6.9     10.2     10.2      8.1       8.2
Canada             6.2      8.3      82       7.5      7.3       7.0
China              --       --       --       --       --        --
Czech Republic     4.4      6.7      7.3      7.2      7.3       6.3
Denmark            3.3      6.1      7.4      7.9      7.0       7.1
Estonia            5.6     13.8     16.8     13.1     12.4      12.7
Finland            6.4      8.2      8.4      8.0      6.8       6.6
France             7.8      9.5      9.8      9.6      8.9       8.0
Germany            7.3      7.5      6.8      6.1      5.1       5.2
Greece             7.7      9.5     12.6     13.9     14.7      11.9
Hungary            7.8     10.0     11.1     11.3      9.7       6.2
Ireland            6.3     11.9     13.7     14.3     11.2       7.1
Italy              6.8      7.8      8.4      8.4      7.8       6.8
Japan              4.0      5.1      5.1      4.4      3.6       4.3
Lithuania          5.8     13.8     17.8     14.7     13.6      13.4
Latvia             7.5     17.1     18.7     14.3     11.4      11.3
Netherlands        3.0      3.7      4.5      4.0      4.0       3.6
Poland             7.2      81       9.6      9.0      7.6       4.7
Portugal           7.8      9.6     11.0     12.4     12.2       9.1
Romania            5.8      6.9      7.3      6.7      6.1       6.1
Slovakia           9.5     12.0     14.4     11.9     10.1      10.1
Slovenia           4.4      5.9      7.3      7.0      5.7       6.1
Spain             11.4     18.0     20.1     20.5     19.5      15.2
Sweden             6.2      8.3      8.4      7.2      6.9       6.5
UK                 5.7      7.6      7.9      8.6      8.4       6.5
US                 5.8      9.3      9.6      8.7      8.1       7.2

                     Current account balance (per cent of GDP)

                  2008     2009     2010     2011     2012    2013-17

Australia         -4.4     -4.1     -1.9      2.9      1.6       1.6
Austria            4.8      2.9      2.8      3.2      3.3       4.6
Belgium           -1.9      0.9      0.5      1.7      1.4       4.0
Bulgaria         -25.3    -11.2      0.3     -4.7     -6.4     -11.2
Canada             0.4     -2.9     -3.1     -0.7     -0.2       0.1
China             10.6      6.6      4.2      3.3      4.6       5.8
Czech Republic    -0.6     -1.0     -2.0     -2.2     -1.6       O.6
Denmark            2.6      3.6      4.2      0.0     -1.3      -2.7
Estonia          -10.5      4.9      3.8      5.5      7.8       7.8
Finland            2.9      2.7      1.4     -0.9     -1.1      -0.2
France            -1.9     -1.9     -1.6     -2.6     -3.6      -4.3
Germany            6.2      5.6      5.6      4.7      3.6       2.0
Greece           -14.8    -11.0     -9.3     -6.9     -4.9      -5.6
Hungary           -7.2     -0.5      2.3      1.8      2.7      -0.1
Ireland           -5.6     -3.0     -2.0     -1.6     -4.8      -9.1
Italy             -3.4     -3.2     -4.2     -3.7     -2.5      -0.7
Japan              3.3      2.8      3.6      1.3      1.4       3.2
Lithuania        -13.0      4.3      1.3     -0.9      2.1       5.6
Latvia           -14.8      9.4      4.1      3.4      5.0       5.2
Netherlands        4.3      4.6      6.0      6.6      5.9       4.6
Poland             4.8     -2.3     -0.9      0.8      1.5       2.2
Portugal         -12.6    -10.3     -8.9     -5.5     -4.7      -7.7
Romania          -16.3     -6.0     -6.0     -1.2      1.5      -4.0
Slovakia          -7.8     -4.5      2.0      0.6      1.7      -2.5
Slovenia          -6.7     -1.5     -1.3     -4.1     -2.3      -3.2
Spain             -9.7     -5.5     -4.7     -3.8     -4.0      -5.1
Sweden             9.2      7.8      6.4      5.2      5.6       5.4
UK                -1.6     -1.7     -2.5     -2.3     -1.1       0.6
US                -4.7     -2.7     -3.2     -3.4     -2.8      -3.1

Table B4. United States

Percentage change

                                      2007     2008     2009     2010

GDP                                    1.9      0.0     -2.6      2.9

Consumption                            2.4     -0.3     -1.2      1.7
Investment: housing                  -18.7    -24.0    -22.9     -3.0
          : business                   6.7      0.3    -17.1      5.7
Government: consumption                1.3      2.5      1.9      0.9
          : investment                 1.7      4.3      0.2      1.4
Stockbuilding (a)                     -0.2     -0.5     -0.6      1.4
Total domestic demand                  1.3     -1.1     -3.7      3.2

Export volumes                         9.3      6.0     -9.5     11.7
Import volumes                         2.7     -2.6    -13.8     12.6

Average earnings                       4.1      3.9      2.8      2.1
Private consumption deflator           2.7      3.3      0.2      1.7
Real personal disposable income        2.1      1.9      0.8      1.6
Unemployment, %                        4.6      5.8      9.3      9.6

General Govt. balance as % of GDP     -2.4     -6.4    -11.3    -10.6
General Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)    61.0     71.9     83.5     91.4

Current account as % of GDP           -5.1     -4.7     -2.7     -3.2

                                                        Average
                                      2011     2012    2013-2017

GDP                                    2.6      2.6       2.8

Consumption                            2.4      1.9       1.9
Investment: housing                    1.1      5.2      10.3
          : business                   7.7      7.5       7.1
Government: consumption               -0.2     -0.7       2.1
          : investment                 3.4      1.1       2.2
Stockbuilding (a)                      0.0      0.0       0.0
Total domestic demand                  2.5      2.1       2.8

Export volumes                         6.8      6.9       4.6
Import volumes                         5.4      3.2       4.4

Average earnings                       2.3      3.2       3.7
Private consumption deflator           3.2      3.6       2.6
Real personal disposable income        1.3      0.2       1.9
Unemployment, %                        8.7      8.1       7.2

General Govt. balance as % of GDP     -9.6     -6.9      -5.1
General Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)    95.3     96.9      96.9

Current account as % of GDP           -3.4     -2.8      -3.1

Note: (a) Change as a percentage of GDP. (b) End-of-year basis.

Table B5. Canada

Percentage change

                                      2007     2008     2009     2010

GDP                                    2.2      0.5     -2.5      3.1

Consumption                            4.6      2.9      0.4      3.4
Investment: housing                    2.8      3.7     -8.2     10.4
          : business                   3.5      2.2    -20.0      6.7
Government: consumption                2.7      3.9      3.5      3.4
          : investment                 6.5      5.6     15.0     13.8
Stockbuilding (a)                      0.0     -0.2     -0.9      0.9
Total domestic demand                  4.0      2.4     -2.8      5.4

Export volumes                         1.2     -4.6    -14.2      6.4
Import volumes                         5.9      1.2    -13.9     13.4

Average earnings                       3.7      2.9      2.5      2.0
Private consumption deflator           1.6      1.6      0.5      1.3
Real personal disposable income        4.0      3.7      1.2      3.3
Unemployment, %                        6.1      6.2      8.3      8.0

General Govt. balance as % of GDP      1.4      0.0     -5.5     -5.5
General Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)    65.4     72.7     81.6     82.8

Current account as % of GDP            0.8      0.4     -2.9     -3.1

                                                        Average
                                      2011     2012    2013-2017

GDP                                    2.9      2.7       2.5

Consumption                            2.9      2.4       2.0
Investment: housing                    2.6      5.2       5.1
          : business                   9.0      5.8       4.5
Government: consumption                1.9      1.7       1.9
          : investment                 2.7     -0.7       0.7
Stockbuilding (a)                     -0.4      0.1       0.0
Total domestic demand                  3.1      2.9       2.4

Export volumes                         6.5      4.3       4.3
Import volumes                         5.9      4.5       3.7

Average earnings                       3.8      4.1       3.9
Private consumption deflator           3.0      2.6       2.0
Real personal disposable income        1.1      2.2       1.8
Unemployment, %                        7.5      7.3       7.0

General Govt. balance as % of GDP     -4.7     -4.2      -2.8
General Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)    80.7     80.8      78.8

Current account as % of GDP           -0.7     -0.2       0.1

Note: (a) Change as a percentage of GDP. (b) End-of-year basis.

Table B6. Japan

Percentage change

                                      2007     2008     2009     2010

GDP                                    2.3     -1.2     -6.3      4.0

Consumption                            1.6     -0.7     -2.0      1.9
Investment: housing                   -9.4     -8.4    -13.7     -6.5
          : business                   2.3     -1.6    -16.7      2.4
Government: consumption                1.5      0.4      3.0      2.3
          : investment                -7.4     -8.6     11.0     -3.3
Stockbuilding (a)                      0.3     -0.2     -13       0.6
Total domestic demand                  1.3     -1.4     -4.7      2.2

Export volumes                         8.4      1.7     24.2     24.2
Import volumes                         1.6      0.4    -15.4      9.8

Average earnings                      -1.2      1.2      0.2     -0.3
Private consumption deflator          -0.6      0.4     -2.1     -1.5
Real personal disposable income        0.5     -0.6      0.1      2.4
Unemployment, %                        3.8      4.0      5.1      5.1

General Govt. balance as % of GDP     -2.4     -2.1     -7.1     -7.6
General Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)   166.9    177.8    193.2    200.4

Current account as % of GDP            4.8      3.3      2.8      3.6

                                                        Average
                                      2011     200     2013-2017

GDP                                    1.1      2.7        1.5

Consumption                            1.5      1.9        0.5
Investment: housing                    2.6      0.9        2.5
          : business                   2.5      2.4        4.0
Government: consumption                2.1      0.3        0.8
          : investment                -4.8      5.2        2.8
Stockbuilding (a)                     -0.2      0.7        0.0
Total domestic demand                  1.4      2.5        1.2

Export volumes                         5.4      7.7        5.3
Import volumes                         8.7      7.7        4.6

Average earnings                       1.1      2.0        2.9
Private consumption deflator           0.1      1.3        2.0
Real personal disposable income        0.5      0.9        0.3
Unemployment, %                        4.4      3.6        4.3

General Govt. balance as % of GDP     -7.5     -6.4       -4.9
General Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)   202.7    202.2      194.7

Current account as % of GDP            1.3      1.4        3.2

Note: (a) Change as a percentage of GDP. (b) End-of-year basis.

Table B7. Euro Area

Percentage change

                                      2007     2008     2009     2010

GDP                                    2.8      0.3     -4.0      1.7

Consumption                            1.7      0.4     -1.1      0.7
Private investment                     4.9     -1.1     13.3     -1.0
Government: consumption                2.2      2.3      2.5      0.7
          : investment                 2.3      1.0      5.4      0.2
Stockbuilding (a)                      0.1      0.2     -0.8      0.5
Total domestic demand                  2.5      0.3     -3.4      0.9

Export volumes                         6.3      0.7    -13.1     10.6
Import volumes                         5.8      0.6    -11.8      8.7

Average earnings                       2.0      3.0      1.8      1.1
Harmonised consumer prices             2.1      3.3      0.3      1.6
Real personal disposable income        1.6      1.0      0.5      0.3
Unemployment, %                        7.5      7.6      9.5     10.0

Govt. balance as % of GDP             -0.6     -2.0     -6.3     -6.0
Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)            66.6     70.3     79.7     85.9

Current account as % of GDP            0.1     -1.5     -0.6     -0.2

                                                        Average
                                      2011     2012    2013-2017

GDP                                    1.7      1.9       2.0

Consumption                            1.0      0.8       1.3
Private investment                     2.7      3.8       3.1
Government: consumption                0.5      0.6       1.3
          : investment                -4.4     -2.0       2.3
Stockbuilding (a)                     -0.1      0.4       0.1
Total domestic demand                  0.9      1.6       1.8

Export volumes                         6.2      4.0       3.7
Import volumes                         4.1      3.5       3.4

Average earnings                       2.3      2.8       3.2
Harmonised consumer prices             2.7      2.3       2.2
Real personal disposable income       -0.9      1.1       1.6
Unemployment, %                        9.8      9.1       7.9

Govt. balance as % of GDP             -4.3     -3.2      -2.5
Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)            86.9     86.4      83.5

Current account as % of GDP           -0.2     -0.5      -1.2

Note: (a) Change as a percentage of GDP. (b) End-of-year basis;
Maastricht definition.

Table B8. Germany

Percentage change

                                      2007     2008     2009     2010

GDP                                    2.8      0.7     -4.7      3.5

Consumption                           -0.2      0.6     -0.1      0.4
Investment: housing                   -1.7     -1.8     -1.0      5.3
          : business                   8.2      2.8    -15.3      6.1
Government: consumption                1.6      2.3      2.9      2.3
          : investment                 1.3      5.1      7.3      4.2
Stockbuilding (a)                      0.1     -0.2     -0.3      0.7
Total domestic demand                  1.4      1.0     -2.0      2.6

Export volumes                         7.9      2.0    -14.3     13.8
Import volumes                         5.2      2.9     -9.4     12.4

Average earnings                       0.8      2.6      2.8      0.4
Harmonised consumer prices             2.3      2.7      0.2      1.2
Real personal disposable income        0.0      1.8     -0.9      0.7
Unemployment, %                        8.4      7.3      7.5      6.8

Govt. balance as % of GDP              0.3      0.1     -3.0     -3.3
Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)            64.9     66.3     73.4     74.8

Current account as % of GDP            7.5      6.2      5.6      5.6

                                                        Average
                                      2011     2012    2013-2017

GDP                                    2.6      2.3       2.1

Consumption                            1.6      1.7       1.7
Investment: housing                    3.9      3.0       0.4
          : business                   6.4      7.2       2.7
Government: consumption                1.7      0.9       1.1
          : investment                -4.7     -7.6       4.6
Stockbuilding (a)                     -0.3      0.3       0.2
Total domestic demand                  2.0      2.6       1.9

Export volumes                         7.9      4.0       3.9
Import volumes                         6.9      4.8       3.7

Average earnings                       1.7      2.7       3.1
Harmonised consumer prices             2.4      2.1       2.1
Real personal disposable income       -0.9      1.6       1.9
Unemployment, %                        6.1      5.1       5.2

Govt. balance as % of GDP             -1.8     -0.3      -1.0
Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)            75.1     72.8      68.8

Current account as % of GDP            4.7      3.6       2.0

Note: (a) Change as a percentage of GDP. (b) End-of-year basis;
Maastricht definition.

Table B9. France

Percentage change

                                      2007     2008     2009     2010

GDP                                    2.3      0.1     -2.5      1.5

Consumption                            2.5      0.5      0.6      1.7
Investment: housing                    4.6     -2.7     -8.7     -2.2
          : business                   6.8      2.4      8.2     -1.5
Government: consumption                1.5      1.6      2.8      1.4
          : investment                 4.3     -2.9      0.6     -1.0
Stockbuilding (a)                      0.2     -0.5     -2.2      0.1
Total domestic demand                  3.2      0.2     -2.6      1.1

Export volumes                         2.5     -0.8    -12.2     10.1
Import volumes                         5.7      0.3    -10.6      7.8

Average earnings                       1.3      3.1      1.7      2.5
Harmonised consumer prices             1.6      3.2      0.1      1.7
Real personal disposable income        3.1      0.4      3.0      1.7
Unemployment, %                        8.4      7.8      9.5      9.8

Govt. balance as % of GDP             -2.7     -3.3     -7.5     -7.0
Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)            63.8     67.6     78.1     83.4

Current account as % of GDP           -1.0     -1.9     -1.9     -1.6

                                                        Average
                                      2011     2012    2013-2017

GDP                                    1.6      1.9       1.9

Consumption                            1.4      0.7       1.2
Investment: housing                    2.4      3.5       3.2
          : business                   1.7      1.9       1.7
Government: consumption                1.0      1.2       1.5
          : investment                -0.6      0.0       1.7
Stockbuilding (a)                      0.1      0.7       0.3
Total domestic demand                  1.5      1.8       1.7

Export volumes                         5.3      4.3       3.7
Import volumes                         4.3      3.6       3.0

Average earnings                       2.8      2.8       3.3
Harmonised consumer prices             2.7      2.4       2.1
Real personal disposable income       -0.3      0.9       1.7
Unemployment, %                        9.6      8.9       8.0

Govt. balance as % of GDP             -5.9     -4.5      -2.9
Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)            86.8     87.7      86.8

Current account as % of GDP           -2.6     -3.6      -4.3

Note: (a) Change as a percentage of GDP. (b) End-of-year basis;
Maastricht definition.

Table B10. Italy

Percentage change

                                      2007     2008     2009     2010

GDP                                    1.4     -1.3     -5.2      1.2

Consumption                            1.1     -0.8     -1.8      1.0
Investment: housing                    0.5     -3.1     -9.3     -3.3
          : business                   2.2     -3.8    -16.1      3.8
Government: consumption                0.9      0.5      1.0     -0.6
          : investment                -1.5     -5.3      4.8     -3.0
Stockbuilding (a)                      0.2     -0.2     -0.8      0.9
Total domestic demand                  1.3     -1.3     -4.1      1.8

Export volumes                         4.0     -4.4    -18.4      8.9
Import volumes                         3.3     -4.4    -13.8     10.3

Average earnings                       2.0      3.7      1.0      0.5
Harmonised consumer prices             2.0      3.5      0.8      1.6
Real personal disposable income        0.4     -1.0     -3.1     -0.3
Unemployment, %                        6.2      6.8      7.8      8.4

Govt. balance as % of GDP             -1.5     -2.7      5.3     -4.5
Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)           103.6    106.3    116.0    117.8

Current account as % of GDP           -2.4     -3.4     -3.2     -4.2

                                                        Average
                                      2011     2012    2013-2017

GDP                                    1.0      1.6        1.5

Consumption                            0.6      0.3        0.5
Investment: housing                   -0.2     -0.5        1.7
          : business                   3.4      3.4        3.3
Government: consumption               -0.9      0.4        0.9
          : investment                -3.8      0.2        1.7
Stockbuilding (a)                     -0.6      0.2        0.0
Total domestic demand                 -0.3      0.9        1.0

Export volumes                         7.3      3.6        3.6
Import volumes                         2.1      1.1        2.2

Average earnings                       0.1      1.4        3.0
Harmonised consumer prices             2.3      2.1        2.4
Real personal disposable income       -0.6      0.6        0.4
Unemployment, %                        8.4      7.8        6.8

Govt. balance as % of GDP             -4.1     -3.9       -3.1
Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)           118.3    116.8      112.3

Current account as % of GDP           -3.7     -2.5       -0.7

Note: (a) Change as a percentage of GDP. (b) End-of-year basis;
Maastricht definition.

Table B11. Spain

Percentage change

                                      2007     2008     2009     2010

GDP                                    3.6      0.9     -3.7     -0.1

Consumption                            3.7     -0.6     -4.2      1.2
Investment: housing                    2.5    -10.7    -24.5    -16.8
          : business                   6.5     -3.9    -18.7     -9.1
Government: consumption                5.5      5.8      3.2     -0.7
          : investment                -1.4      4.0     15.4      9.9
Stockbuilding (a)                     -0.1      0.1      0.0      0.1
Total domestic demand                  4.1     -0.5     -5.9     -1.1

Export volumes                         6.7     -1.1    -11.6     10.3
Import volumes                         8.0     -5.3    -17.8      5.4

Average earnings                       5.8      5.5      3.7      0.2
Harmonised consumer prices             2.8      4.1     -0.2      2.0
Real personal disposable income        2.7      2.6      2.5     -2.6
Unemployment, %                        8.3     11.4     18.0     20.1

Govt. balance as % of GDP              1.9     -4.2    -11.1     -9.2
Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)            36.1     39.8     53.2     61.7

Current account as % of GDP          -10.0     -9.7     -5.5     -4.7

                                                        Average
                                      2011     2012    2013-2017

GDP                                    0.9      1.5       2.9

Consumption                            0.6      0.5       1.9
Investment: housing                   -5.6      4.2       7.3
          : business                   2.5      5.6       7.9
Government: consumption               -1.7      0.1       2.2
          : investment               -15.7     -5.4       2.1
Stockbuilding (a)                      0.0      0.0       0.0
Total domestic demand                 -0.6      1.1       3.1

Export volumes                         6.6      3.8       4.5
Import volumes                         1.0      2.4       5.1

Average earnings                       1.7      4.4       3.9
Harmonised consumer prices             3.5      3.3       2.3
Real personal disposable income       -3.1      1.3       2.5
Unemployment, %                       20.5     19.5      15.2

Govt. balance as % of GDP             -6.5     -5.5      -3.8
Govt. debt as % of GDP (b)            64.9     66.5      67.4

Current account as % of GDP           -3.8     -4.0      -5.1

Note: (a) Change as a percentage of GDP. (b) End-of-year basis;
Maastricht definition.
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Title Annotation:THE WORLD ECONOMY
Author:Holland, Dawn; Barrell, Ray; Delannoy, Aurelie; Fic, Tatiana; Hurst, Ian; Orazgani, Ali; Paluchowski
Publication:National Institute Economic Review
Article Type:Appendix
Date:Apr 1, 2011
Words:5620
Previous Article:Appendix A: summary of key forecast assumptions.
Next Article:Prospects for the UK economy.
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