Andrew Seybold's Outlook Commences Two- Part Series on True Costs of Wireless Data Communications.

BOULDER CREEK, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--July 8, 1998--Andrew Seybold's Outlook, the leading analytical newsletter serving the mobile-computing industry, has published the first article in a two-part series on the types and comparative costs of wireless data communications services available today.

The second article will be published in late July. The first article deals with one-way, 1.5-way (one-way, with network response), and two-way paging, and with four different wireless packet data offerings. Editor in Chief Andrew M. Seybold applies a consistent model to each that projects the costs for a stated number of messages per month, as well as how these costs are determined.

Paging offerings include local/regional and nationwide solutions offered by SkyTel, PageNet and PageMart. Packet data network solutions include ARDIS/American Mobile Satellite Corp. and BellSouth Wireless Data (BSWD), both of which claim 90 percent-plus coverage of the United States; CDPD or Wireless IP, with about 50 percent, provided by several vendors; and Ricochet service from Metricom Inc., now in three cities and which Metricom plans to build out to 10 more.

The article also considers various devices available for each solution.

While there is enthusiasm for wireless data communications, (believers) are divided among themselves, Seybold noted.

"Some believe that the only viable type of wireless data is that which is delivered over a packet-radio system," he said. "Others believe that all must be accomplished using only Internet Protocol. Still others believe that while wireless data is important, we should wait for higher-speed networks.

"Some who really understand the promise of wireless data, feel that this is not a one-size-fits-all market... Creating a demand for mobile connectivity and mobile data requires, among other things, an understanding of what is available today, how it can best be used, and the types of data for which each is best suited.

"It must be easy to make the connection between the network, the mobile device and the sources of information as determined by the user. The pricing scheme must be easy to understand, and the monthly cost must be reasonable."

Packet data services are putting pressure on paging companies offering two -way wireless messaging with a move toward flat-rate pricing, a model that works today because neither ARDIS, BSWD, nor CDPD networks are heavily loaded, Seybold observed. The model does not work for one-way paging networks because they are already heavily loaded and providers are trying to find ways to reduce the amount of data sent over their networks.

"When we compare (wireless data pricing) to wireless voice pricing at `teen' cents per minute rates, wireless data costs appear high," he writes. "We believe that as user demand increases, prices will fall and more companies will embrace flat-rate data pricing to keep their users happy."

Elsewhere in the issue, Seybold examines ramifications of the merger of AT&T and TCI, noting such issues as emergency backup, communications security, signal leakage, and the potential deterioration of service quality.

"Most of our concerns have to do with how robust the service offering will be," he writes. "AT&T set the standards for service reliability even during the worst of times. The Regional Bell Operating Companies (RBOCs) have continued the tradition. In most places, phone service is the utility with which we experience the fewest outages.

"I want to save money as much as the next person. But not at the expense of having to wonder whether I will have dial tone when I need it."

The Outlook's monthly application article explores how the Torrance, Calif., Municipal Police Department implemented previously cost-prohibitive mobile data communications capability in its patrol and investigative vehicles by sharing resources with the department in the neighboring community of Inglewood.

Andrew Seybold's Outlook is a monthly perspective of issues affecting the mobile-computer and communications industries. For a free issue, subscription information or information about allied activities, contact Ruth Johnson at Andrew Seybold's Outlook, P.O. Box 2460, Boulder Creek, Calif. 95006-2460; telephone [phone]; fax [phone]; e-mail, [e-mail]; or visit the Web site: www.outlook.com.

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