Analysis connection.

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Man masters nature not by force but by understanding. That is why science has succeeded where magic failed: because it has looked for no spell to cast on nature.

--Jacob Bronowski, "The Creative Mind," science and Human Values, 1956

In 2008, Major Jennifer Walston became LGY's rock star, being asked for command performances by the Air Force Chief of Staff and the Secretary of the Air Force (and many very important persons) for her work on the Comprehensive Analysis of Nuclear Surety (CANS) study, which got her invited back a few months later to help with CANS Number 2. LGY continues to be involved with assisting the Air Force in regaining our footing in the nuclear arena. She published "Mesh Adaptive Algorithms for Mixed Variable Optimization," to appear in Optimization Letters, as well as "Capturing Risk in Solution Prioritization," in Air Force Journal of Logistics, Volume XXXII, Number 3, Fall 2008. Major Walston was handpicked for the control team for Austere Challege 2008, a Joint Chiefs of Staff-sponsored major Joint exercise, and provided vital expertise for United States European Command support for a President of the United States African health partnership visit to five nations. All in all, 2008 was a busy year for Major Walston.

Gale Bowman was also involved in the nuclear area, working 26 straight days of long, long hours in the Air Force Logistics Management Agency's (AFLMA) secure room to provide an integrated complete inventory of all Air Force-owned nuclear weapons related material, directed by the Secretary of Defense. Over 17,000 records were assembled, checked, and rechecked--and then checked again, for which work she was coined by Headquarters Air Force Directorate of Logistics (AF A4). Ms Bowman's tireless professional work ensured the integrity of the Air Force process, and will continue to do so in the future. Ms Bowman coauthored and submitted two articles which were subsequently published in the Air Force Journal of Logistics, a peer-reviewed publication. As well, Ms Bowman has acted as primary AFLMA Unit Security Manager for most of this year. The military member who was primary was either deployed or on temporary duty. She has performed this duty above and beyond what was required or expected, and was named official unit security manager.

John Dietz continues to provide support for running the Readiness-Based Leveling model, which is used to examine the allocation of Air Force-managed spare parts authorizations worldwide, every 6 months, as well as examining on an as-needed basis each contingency high-priority mission support kit. These computer runs are tedious, time-consuming and exacting, and Mr Dietz does this job admirably. Mr Dietz has also provided analytical support to several meetings of the Air Force Supply Chain Management Board. The clarity of his logic and accuracy convinced the board to approve changes in policy which will yield a 10 percent reduction in outages for critical items. In addition, Mr Dietz has independently led the AFLMA safety program to a very high level, and has received plaudits from our wing safety inspector. Mr Dietz manages the testing of all upgrades to the readiness-based levels application, which also happen every 6 months. There are always significant changes which need to be vetted, which he does with great attention to detail and veracity, and meets all of the deadlines. On his own initiative, Mr Dietz created and maintains a database of weight and cube information which can be and has been used for studies not only at the AFLMA but at other agencies.

First Lieutenant Frank Iubelt was indeed busy this year as our building manager, equipment custodian, and equipment manager (which is nearly a full-time job by itself). He rewrote the Maintenance Metrics Handbook, which will be showing up in changes to Air Force Instruction 21-101. Lieutenant Iubelt also participated in the Air Force Chief of Staff's Unified Engagement 2008 wargame, being coined in appreciation by the Coalition Joint Task Force Command, Control, Communications, and Computer Systems (C4S) for his excellent contributions to the process. Lieutenant Iubelt developed a Mobility Air Force-wide demand and capacity metric which led to a 10 percent decrease in total not mission capable maintenance rate at Dover Air Force Base. As well, Lieutenant Iubelt has been instrumental in developing a way to integrate maintenance and experience skill levels into assessing maintenance capability. For the first time, maintainers can tell warfighters their true sustained sortie capability.

Captain John Flory spent a good part of 2008 in the sand at the Combined Air Operations Center, learning and being learned from. He has written an article about his summer vacation which will also appear in this edition of the Air Force Journal of Logistics. He led an Operation Iraqi Freedom airlift mission planning efficiency optimization, which increased the flight sortie rate an amazing 25 percent. He was the sole authenticator for over 20,000 Allied Forces Central Europe sorties, reconciled 3 differing mobility systems, increasing data accuracy by 40 percent. He evaluated the ramifications of a Pakistan air corridor closure, and identified a crucial Operation Iraqi Freedom/ Operation Enduring Freedom impact, to avert a classified problem. Back at the ranch, Captain Flory continues to perform exceptional work on all projects he is assigned to. Captain Flory has elected to leave the Air Force this year and seek fame and glory by pursuing a PhD in statistics in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. We wish him all the best.

After leading the effort in several important projects, Captain Jenine Cowdrey left the Air Force early in 2008, having decided that she could help us all see the world a little more clearly by becoming an optometrist. While she was still with us, she led a project to determine the impact of labor unionization on A-76 contracts, and briefed 100-plus of her peers at a contracting symposium. She was involved with several volunteer projects while at the AFLMA, and served as our unit deployment manager for an extended period; our members were trained and equipped with no discrepancies. Due to her efforts, AFLMA earned an outstanding in a staff assistance visit.

Late in 2008, Ms Jennifer Lizzol came to work at the AFLMA from the Headquarters Air Force Operational Test and Evaluation Center (AFOTEC). Ms Lizzol's husband, Captain Lizzol, is currently serving as an instructor at Squadron Officer School. Ms Lizzol came very highly recommended from AFOTEC. AFLMA is fortunate to find Ms Lizzol as an experienced analyst and statistician. She has been immediately put to work on figuring out how to test some follow-on ideas for the Mobility Air Force' s Aircrew and Aircraft Tasking System, as well as equipment sustainment for the Expeditionary Combat Support System, and analyzing surveys for contracting. Not only can she analyze the heck out of anything, she is being trained to be physical training leader, and can get you to sweat with the best of them.

LGY's current division chief, Dr Thomas Gage, reviewed oodles of papers, reports, and articles, and began searching for a better way to do business, realizing that reviewing the same type of thing all the time, one can easily become stale; just as when he was programming a computer. It becomes easy to make a mistake which may be impossible to find because you've seen the same thing so many times. The search continues. Dr Gage attended the Air Force Operations Research Symposium this year in Newport News, Virginia, along with Major Walston, and presented a paper on a potential method for extracting more information from short time series. The method was originally used in finance and in ecological research. Dr Gage rewrote the AFLMA Study Assessment Team Operating Instructions several times in 2008--AFLMA processes and procedures continue to evolve. This is a work in progress as the Air Force continues to do more with less. AFLMA continues to seek ties with others who can help, and to assist others in their search for effectiveness.

Thomas Gage, PhD, AFLMA