Analysis: Russia-West tension may worsen

The diplomatic struggle over Russia's refusal to extradite the man suspected in the poisoning death of a former KGB agent in London could hamper progress on an array of issues critical to the West.

After Britain ordered on Monday the expulsion of four Russian diplomats to pressure Moscow, Russia retaliated in kind against four British diplomats, suspended counter-terrorism cooperation with Britain, and probed the limits of British airspace with strategic bombers.

These moves, chillingly reminiscent of the Cold War, may only be a taste of what is to come.

"I hope we can still contain this crisis," Dmitry Trenin of the Moscow Carnegie Center told The Associated Press on Saturday.

As a veto-wielding U.N. Security Council member, Russia is a critical player in many issues of international importance.

In the past week, Moscow managed to prevent a Security Council vote on the future status of Kosovo because it opposes a Western push for the Serbian province's independence.

There are also concerns that Russia could thwart efforts to halt conflict in the Darfur region of Sudan. The African nation is a major customer for Russian weaponry. And Moscow is also involved in efforts to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian crisis.

Russia has the world's largest reserves of hydrocarbons, still controls the bulk of the Soviet nuclear arsenal, and has the means to deliver them worldwide.

The British-Russian diplomatic fight escalated over Britain's demand that Russia hand over Andrei Lugovoi, a former KGB officer. British prosecutors charged him on May 22 with the killing of Alexander Litvinenko, the former KGB officer turned Kremlin critic who was poisoned with the radioactive isotope polonium-210.

Trenin said the $14 billion in annual trade between Russia and Britain should act as a brake on both sides. So, too, he said, should the presence in London of many wealthy and influential Russians, who have made the British capital their second home.

President Vladimir Putin on Thursday dismissed the tensions as no more than a "mini-crisis," an irritant in relations between Russia and the West.

But so far neither Britain nor Russia show any sign of yielding.

Russia has said its constitution does not permit the extradition of its citizens, and accused Britain of deliberately worsening relations.

A spokesman for Prime Minister Gordon Brown said Britain would continue to press Russia to hand over Lugovoi. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice suggested the U.S. would back London, asking for "the full cooperation of Russia."

Putin, meanwhile, is unlikely to extradite Lugovoi under any circumstances, Trenin said.

"To do that after everything that's happened would be a loss of face, which will be totally incomprehensible," he said.

Moscow has not said what halting bilateral cooperation on counter-terror measure means. Analysts say, though, that Russia has relatively little intelligence on terror groups that threaten Britain because Moscow's efforts are focused on fighting domestic militant groups in the Caucasus.

The conflict between Russia and the West goes far beyond the Litvinenko case.

The Kremlin has accused the U.S. of encouraging regime change in ex-Soviet states, in order to weaken and isolate Russia. U.S. insistence on building an anti-missile system in Central Europe has drawn ferocious opposition from Putin.

After Washington refused to alter its missile defense plans, Putin suspended participation in a landmark European arms control treaty July 14.

Viktor Kremenyuk, deputy director of the Institute of USA and Canada Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, said Moscow is at a critical point in its history, trying to decide what role to play in global affairs.

He said Russia stands between three "elephants:" Europe, with one of the world's strongest economies; China, with 1 billion people and rising industrial might; and the Islamic world, with its fast-growing population and religious militants.

"What is Russia going to do about these giants?" he said. "Russia must make a decision to join one of these camps."

Russia's logical choice is to join Europe, Kremenyuk said. But to do this, Russia will have to adopt a Western-style democratic system and fully open its markets, he added.

Russia's need to integrate with the West but its refusal to pay the price for such integration is the underlying cause of the current tensions, Kremenyuk said.