Analysis: Nomination races still in flux

Call it a failure to gel.

Iowa and New Hampshire, where presidential politics at this early point may matter more than in the nation as a whole, are in a state of flux just seven weeks before the first voting is to begin.

Voters who have managed to pick candidates in these two leadoff states are split among the top contenders in both parties, and more than half in both states say they have not made up their minds. For the leading candidates who have been campaigning for nearly a year, this is where they are after all their efforts:

_ For Democrats, a three-way virtual tie in Iowa among Hillary Rodham Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards.

_ For Republicans, a contest between Mitt Romney and Rudy Giuliani with looming threats from Mike Huckabee in Iowa and John McCain in New Hampshire.

That's the political freeze-frame depicted in new CBS/New York Times polls conducted in the two states. The results suggest Iowa could be a determining contest for Democrats and New Hampshire could be pivotal for Republicans.

While national polls show Clinton and Giuliani leading their respective parties, the ground game now is in two states with a combined population of 4.3 million people.

The unsettled nature of the race is not unusual by presidential political standards. Iowa, which makes its selections through caucuses, is notoriously difficult to poll because only a fraction of the voting population participates in the precinct meetings. New Hampshire voters are known for making up their minds only in the days before their primary.

Still, while surveys portray a fluid field, they also illustrate how a candidate such as Huckabee can suddenly emerge from the back of the pack and upend conventional wisdom.

The Times/CBS polls try to burrow into the minds of voters and offer a window into the candidates' strengths and vulnerabilities. Clinton significantly leads other Democrats when voters are asked which candidates has the best chance of winning the general election in November. About four out of five Democratic voters surveyed in Iowa and New Hampshire believe Clinton has prepared well enough for the job of being president, whereas only two out of five believe Obama has prepared well.

But Obama leads all Democrats as the candidate who voters in both states believe would be more likely to bring about change in Washington. And Clinton fared worse than Obama and Edwards when voters were asked which candidates had a tendency to say what they believed as opposed to what they think people want to hear.

Those findings provide clear talking points for the campaigns as the Democrats prepare for yet another debate Thursday night in Nevada.

For Republicans, the polls show that voters find they have more shared values with Romney and McCain than with Giuliani. McCain gets the most credit for saying what he believes. Still, Giuliani leads on the question of who has the best chance of winning in November. Huckabee, a former Baptist preacher who can light a fire with religious conservatives, has propelled himself to second place in Iowa, trailing Romney by six percentage points.

Even a second place finish could make Huckabee the big story out of Iowa, overshadowing Romney and increasing the importance of New Hampshire. It is there where McCain and Giuliani are counting on success. McCain won the state in his unsuccessful 2000 presidential bid and Romney, who was governor of neighboring Massachusetts, is a known commodity there.

Now Giuliani is weighing in with a big $300,000 ad buy in the state, the first of his campaign, signaling that he, too, intends to compete there. Just two days ago Giuliani's campaign was sketching a scenario that didn't require victories in early states like New Hampshire to win the nomination.

That means New Hampshire could whittle the Republican field but still leave a handful of candidates fighting their way through to contests in South Carolina and Michigan. Look for Republicans to focus on the issue of immigration, ranked the top subject with voters in polls. That doesn't help Giuliani, who advocated some pro-immigrant policies while mayor of New York. Fred Thompson, who registered in single digits in the Times/CBS polls, launched a new ad this week in Iowa calling for secure borders and voicing opposition to amnesty for illegal immigrants

"We could have multi-candidates in play going to South Carolina and all the way to Florida" on Jan. 29, said Republican strategist Scott Reed, who managed Bob Dole's 1996 presidential race but is unaffiliated now.

For Democrats, Iowa could be their decisive state. A Clinton victory would emphasize the leads she already enjoys in New Hampshire and subsequent states. But Clinton's recent debate performance and stumbles by her campaign, including the admission that they planted a question for her at a campaign appearance, illustrate vulnerabilities.

Victory in Iowa by Edwards or Obama could realign the contest. Obama is better positioned than Edwards to capitalize on an Iowa victory; he has more money, and a more far flung organization. And he is in second place in New Hampshire.

"There is really no place to stop her if the others can't stop her in Iowa," said Democratic pollster Mark Mellman, who worked on John Kerry's 2004 campaign. "If Hillary wins by one point in Iowa she will win the nomination. If she loses by one point it will be a much more competitive race for her."

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EDITOR'S NOTE — Jim Kuhnhenn covers the 2008 presidential race for The Associated Press.