An end to centrist politics?

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown summoned his last reserves of energy at the Labour party's annual conference in a bid to avoid defeat in general elections next year. In his main speech to the party conference he reiterated 'New Labour' slogans that brought the party to power 12 years ago, and tacitly indicated the need to take a 'middle' line. Fearful of losing power to the opposition Conservative (Tory) party, Labour is shifting to the right.

It was very daring of Brown, leader of the party of the workers, to tell trade unions recently that they must expect cuts in public spending, possibly leading to more job losses in the public sector. The latest opinion polls put Labour third, behind the Tories and the Liberal democrats. But party members are not only concerned about opinion polls, they also see a shift in Europe towards the right - although the results of the German general elections gave a boost to their rivals.

The Christian Democratic Union of Germany, led by Chancellor Angela Merkel's party, secured enough votes to rule for a second term without the need for a coalition with the Social Democrats. For the last four years, Merkel had to include them in her government. This period of shared power followed Gerhard Schroeder's rule, who in turn succeeded the conservative Helmut Kohl.

The frequent shift between the left and the 'moderate' right in German politics is similar to that seen in other major European countries, such as France and Italy. Nicolas Sarkozy came to power in 2007 on a ticket that was more towards the centre than that of his predecessor Jacques Chirac.

Silvio Berlusconi was re-elected last year, capitalising on the failure of the leftist coalition led by Romano Prodi to revive the Italian economy. Merkel also gained public support for her decisive leadership of the country in an economic crisis. Brown is hoping his economic credentials might save him from defeat, and now he is focusing attention on the lack of experience in the other camp.

Since the late seventies, politics in Europe has revolved around the centre and mainstream parties, pragmatically, have dropped the clear distinction between left and right that characterised the period of the two World Wars and afterwards. The American political model of two main parties exchanging power had an impact on Europe after the war. But the most important factor was the collapse of the Soviet Union, the deconstruction of the Socialist bloc in Central and Eastern Europe, and the rise of a new political right in those countries.

In the eighties, with Margaret Thatcher in power in the UK, Francois Mitterrand in France and Helmut Kohl in Germany, centre-left and centre-right politics were redefined. This reflected the political shift towards the middle. As political parties became more similar in outlook, the political centre became crammed with mainstream political parties. Of course, there are still marginal factions on the left and right, and these are drifting further from the centre to become the new far-left and far-right.

The centre has become the focal point and political parties have adopted slogans that sound very much the same. The Marxists used to argue, early last century, that the economy is the main area in which parties can differentiate themselves (at that time the distinction was between capitalism and socialism). Today, the economy is again the main item on the agenda of the political parties of the centre, although capitalism has largely triumphed.

The cycles in which the left and right dominate power in European countries are becoming shorter, and the differences between the two are becoming less apparent. Politics is becoming increasingly like a free-market economic system. Just as the global economy suffered a crisis in the last couple of years, so the politics of the centre could suffer a crisis. The political 'bubble' of the crammed centre might burst, leading to fragmentation and more left and right parties.

Signs of this were evident in the latest elections of the European Parliament this summer, when far-right and marginal left parties gained more votes across the enlarged European Union. It remains to be seen whether the political system will correct itself - just as, according to conventional wisdom, free-market economies do - or whether we will witness a political crisis of some sort.

Aa

Dr Ahmad Mustafa is a London-based Arab writer.

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