America's shrinking military.

In the middle of July, folks in Charleston, SC, were able to cross the Arthur Ravenel Jr. Bridge over the Cooper River for the very first time. Under construction for almost four years, the eight-lane edifice replaced two aging spans (one of which was so old and unsafe that many refused to use it) with a soaring structure that is both a joy to drive on and to look at. After watching the new bridge slowly take shape over the past several years, we are now being treated to the sight of the old ones coming down, a process that will be completed in approximately 18 months. Clearly, constructing something takes much longer than destroying it, a point that has been brought home by recent developments at the highest levels of the Department of Defense (DoD).

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The Mobility Capabilities Study (MCS) released in November concluded that a transport force structure planned before 9/11 will be sufficient to meet military needs through 2012. In line with that conclusion, officials are proposing to halt further buys of the C-17 and C-130J airlifters by the end of the decade while retaining the entire fleet of (problematic) C-5s. This surprising turn of events is of grave concern for several reasons. First, if plans articulated in the MCS are adopted, Boeing would immediately begin the process of shutting down their production facilities. Relatively quickly, such actions become irrevocable which means that future airlift needs would have to be met either with US-built aircraft designed to meet commercial needs or planes made outside the United States. Unfortunately, while the Europeans have been working on a tactical airlifter, there is no strategic military transport being manufactured or even contemplated outside of the US.

Second, this course of action would place an even greater burden on our airlines and the Civil Reserve Air Fleet (CRAF). Though things seem to be slowly improving for US carriers, the industry is not out of the woods yet. Many airlines are paring fleets and schedules as they move to cut costs and rationalize routes. Unfortunately, such changes do not bode well for a CRAF that may be called upon to provide higher levels of both peacetime and contingency support to the DoD. Finally, given the sweeping mission changes that resulted from the emergence of terrorism as a national threat on September 11, 2001, I have a hard time accepting any future military transport requirements that rest on life as we knew it before that date.

In a similar vein, the Army is weighing options that would scale back its planned growth by at least one active-duty and six National Guard brigades over the next year to keep its modernization programs on track. Taken in concert with the MCS and 2005 Base Realignment and Closure Committee recommendations, I think many people are again wondering if we are cutting our military capability too much too quickly. I recall having similar thoughts in the early 1990s as base closures and huge active duty force reductions changed the face of the DoD. Of course, the nation has continued to meet its military responsibilities, including those erupting out of 9/11, my fears to the contrary. But the burden on Reserve and National Guard members has significantly increased as the active force has gotten smaller, which seems somewhat paradoxical to me.

So, maybe I just shouldn't worry about these things. But, of course, I will. To specify future manpower and equipment needs based on plans made before 9/11 seems extremely short-sighted to me. From the point of view of the Defense Transportation System (DTS), even talking about ceasing production of our primary strategic and tactical airlifters without a comprehensive vision for what the future holds is cause for much concern. I hope that, upon further reflection and study, senior leaders will rethink that decision and propose a future force structure that increases transport resources rather than decreases them.

Dr. Kent N. Gourdin, Editor DTJ 

Director, Global Logistics and Transportation Program College of Charleston