America's new Pak First policy.

THE DETERIORATING situation in Pakistan is compelling the US to shift to a Pakistan First strategy in the region. Six months after it launched its AfPak initiative, the US is seeing it become a PakAf one. Saturday's attack on the General Headquarters of the Pakistan Army may not have led to major casualties or caused any great damage, but it has important psychological and symbolic value.

American dithering, visible in the prolonged agonising over the demand for more troops by General Stanley A. McChrystal, and the intense debates in the US establishment last week, are all signs of another American shift in the region.

The religious extremists -- the Taliban and their counterparts in Pakistan -- sense this uncertainty and are trying to manipulate the outcome to their own advantage.

Their chosen weapons are the bomb and the commando assault, but they are not above the subtle use of propaganda and PR. A shift to a Pakistan First strategy does not suit the Tehreek- e- Taliban Pakistan ( TTP) at all. And so they have stepped up the attacks in Pakistan. The brazen assault by a squad of terrorists against the army's General Headquarters in Rawalpindi on Saturday is a direct message to the Pakistan Army that it should stay away from American " machinations" which include the imminent Waziristan offensive against the TTP. The attack's DNA appears to be the same as that of the commando- style assault that took place against Mumbai last year, and in some half- a- dozen similar attacks in Pakistan this year.

The Taliban are happy over the PakAf focus. On Wednesday, they underscored this in a statement on their website www. shahamat. org : " We had and have no plan of harming countries of the world, including those in Europe... our goal is the independence of the country and the building of an Islamic state." In other words, if you leave us alone, we'll do the same to you.

This is not a statement of weakness, but of strength. It comes in the same week that the US left from the positions in the Nuristan province that were battered by a massive Taliban attack last month. On Saturday, the Taliban got their response when in Washington, US assistant secretary of state for public affairs P. J. Crowley declared, " If the Afghan government chooses to engage in political dialogue and that dialogue brings people who are currently outside the political process, we think that will be a positive development." What he said, minus the spin, is that the US is open to negotiating with the " good" Taliban.

A Pakistan First strategy is based on the assumption that the Taliban and the Al- Qaeda can be separated. But analysts like Anthony H. Cordesman believe that the two outfits have, if anything, become closer since 9/ 11. Another somewhat tenuous assumption is that the Pakistani authorities will cooperate in an intensified campaign against the Al- Qaeda in Pakistan.

This, as is well known, would involve not just more drone strikes, but possible efforts to root out the Taliban command structure, the so- called Quetta Shura, from their hiding places within and near Quetta. On Thursday, the number two in the US Embassy, Gerald Feierstein, was pulled up by the foreign ministry in Islamabad for telling journalists that the US wanted action against the Shura in Quetta.

As a sweetener, the US is offering a massive aid package through what is called the Kerry- Lugar Bill. But its reception has been anything but warm. On October 7, the Pakistan Army made its views clear when a press release after the meeting of the corps commanders noted that the Kerry- Lugar Bill had also come under discussion during the conference but " the forum expressed serious concern regarding clauses impacting on national security. A formal input is being provided to the government". The army is unhappy about provisions requiring Islamabad to provide continuing cooperation to choke the A. Q. Khan network.

But it is absolutely livid about the certification requirements that require showing that Pakistan " has demonstrated a sustained commitment to and is making significant efforts towards combating terrorist groups". That means not just campaigns against the Al- Qaeda and the Taliban, but also cracking down on the Lashkar- e- Tayyeba and the Jaish- e- Mohammed and preventing them from " carrying out cross- border attacks in neighbouring countries".

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