Amend: Fitch Downgrades SCA and XLCA; Outlook Negative.NEW YORK New York, state, United States New York, Middle Atlantic state of the United States. It is bordered by Vermont, Massachusetts, Connecticut, and the Atlantic Ocean (E), New Jersey and Pennsylvania (S), Lakes Erie and Ontario and the Canadian province of -- (This amends a press release issued earlier today and contains revised stress impairment information in the fourth-to-last paragraph.) Fitch Ratings Fitch Ratings An international rating agency for financial institutions, insurance companies, and corporate, sovereign, and municipal debt. Fitch Ratings has headquarters in New York and London and is wholly owned by FIMALAC of Paris. has downgraded the following ratings on Security Capital Assurance Ltd. (SCA (Single Connector Attachment) An 80-pin plug and socket used to connect peripherals. With a SCSI drive, it rolls three cables (power, data channel and ID configuration) into one connector for fast installation and removal. ) and its financial guaranty As a verb, to agree to be responsible for the payment of another's debt or the performance of another's duty, liability, or obligation if that person does not perform as he or she is legally obligated to do; to assume the responsibility of a guarantor; to warrant. insurance subsidiaries: XL Capital Assurance Inc. (XLCA XLCA Xl Capital Assurance, Inc. ) XL Capital Assurance (U.K.) Ltd. (XLCA-UK) XL Financial Assurance Ltd. (XLFA) --Insurer financial strength (IFS) to 'BB' from 'A'. Security Capital Assurance Ltd. --Long-term Issuer to 'B-' from 'BBB'; --$250 million fixed/floating series A perpetual non-cumulative preference shares to 'CCC' from 'BBB-'. Twins Reefs Pass-Through Trust --$200 million pass-through trust securities to 'B' from 'BBB'. Fitch has also removed the affected ratings from Rating Watch Negative, where they were originally placed on Dec. 12, 2007. The Rating Outlook is Negative. The downgrade of SCA and its financial guaranty subsidiaries centers on Fitch's updated assessment of the company's capital position, a review by Fitch of the company's current capital enhancement plans, and an update on Fitch's current views of U.S. subprime related risks. The downgrade also reflects what Fitch views as the material erosion in SCA's franchise value and competitive business position following downgrades to well below 'AAA' by each of the three major rating agencies. Fitch believes that SCA's current level of capital and claims paying resources is no longer consistent with Fitch's guidelines for an investment grade IFS rating. Fitch currently believes that expected losses on SCA's structured finance collateralized debt obligations Collateralized Debt Obligation (CDO) A general inclusive term which covers Collateralized Bond Obligations, Collateralized Loan Obligations, and Collateralized Mortgage Obligations, (SF CDO (Collaborative Data Objects) A programming interface from Microsoft for accessing MAPI-based e-mail, calendaring and scheduling servers. Originally called "OLE Messaging" and "Active Messaging," CDO wraps the Enhanced MAPI library into a COM object that provides the ) backed by subprime residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS RMBS Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities RMBS Rambus, Inc. (NASDAQ stock symbol) RMBS Russian Mortgage-Backed Securities ) will ultimately fall within a range of about $3 to $4 billion. This compares to SCA's modeled claims paying resources and committed external reinsurance The contract made between an insurance company and a third party to protect the insurance company from losses. The contract provides for the third party to pay for the loss sustained by the insurance company when the company makes a payment on the original contract. coverage of $4.2 billion as of Dec. 31, 2007. Expected losses reflect Fitch's current estimates of the range of projected losses over the life of these transactions, stated on a present value basis. From a present value perspective, Fitch discounts the expected future loss rates on SF CDOs by 5% over a two-year period for CDO-squareds, five years for mezzanine SF CDOs and seven years for high-grade SF CDOs. SCA recently disclosed that it has unilaterally terminated seven credit default swap Credit Default Swap A swap designed to transfer the credit exposure of fixed income products between parties. Notes: The buyer of a credit swap receives credit protection, whereas the seller of the swap guarantees the credit worthiness of the product. (CDS) contracts with Merrill Lynch Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER TYO: 8675 ), through its subsidiaries and affiliates, provides capital markets services, investment banking and advisory services, wealth management, asset management, insurance, banking and related products and services on a global basis. International (MLI MLI Mali (ISO Country code) MLI Multi-Layer Insulation MLI Member of the Landscape Institute MLI Multiple Link Interface (ODI) MLI Millstreet Industries Inc. ) under which XLCA had covered risk of losses on SF CDO transactions. While Fitch is not in a position to opine on the validity or merits of the termination, Fitch notes that a ruling in SCA's favor could have meaningful positive impact on the company's capital position and credit ratings in the future. Projected losses on the seven SF CDO transactions account for a material percentage of the aggregate SF CDO expected losses estimated by Fitch. According to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. SCA, MLI repudiated the contracts by committing to provide third parties with the same CDO control rights that it had previously promised to XLCA. MLI disputes the terminations and has filed suit in U.S. District Court to seek legal enforcement of XLCA's obligations under the contracts. Fitch believes it could be several years before the dispute is settled. Fitch notes that SCA has been aiming to restore the company's financial and capital position. In the interim, with the loss of its top credit ratings and its decision to defer raising additional capital at the present time, SCA has chosen to forego underwriting new financial guaranty business for the foreseeable future to preserve capital. The suspension of new underwriting is expected to help SCA's capital position as the company will benefit from the amortization of existing insured obligations, some of which exhaust a material amount of targeted capital. Favorably, Fitch notes that SCA's maintains solid liquidity, as the company would not be expected to pay a majority of its claims, particularly on SF CDOs, for many years into the future. In addition, SCA is not subject to any notable collateral posting or termination provisions that could effectively accelerate the draw on its existing capital resources. Going forward, Fitch believes that it will be very difficult to stabilize the ratings of SCA until the company can both raise external capital and more effectively limit the downside risk Downside Risk An estimation of a security's potential to suffer a decline in price if the market conditions turn bad. Notes: You can think of this as an estimate of the amount that you could lose on a stock or other investment. from its SF CDOs through reinsurance or other risk mitigation initiatives. Fitch does not anticipate removing the Negative Rating Outlook over the near-to-intermediate-term until the risk of loss on the SF CDOs portfolio can be more definitively quantified. SCA's claims paying resources as of Dec. 31, 2007 of $4.2 billion includes the benefits from a $500 million reinsurance policy it maintains with a subsidiary of XL Capital Ltd., the former majority owner of SCA that now owns 46% of SCA. Fitch believes SCA's current claims paying resources (including benefit of the reinsurance contract) fall below the agency's targeted 'AAA', 'AA', 'A' and 'BBB' IFS rating ranges by the following amounts: --'AAA' capital shortfall of $5.6 to $5.9 billion; --'AA' capital shortfall of $3.9 to $4.5 billion; --'A' capital shortfall of $1.3 to $2.5 billion; --'BBB' capital shortfall of $600 million to $1.2 billion. Fitch's analysis of expected losses includes an assumption that underlying cumulative loss rates on residential mortgages supporting outstanding subprime residential mortgage-backed securities Residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS) are a type of bond commonly issued in American security markets. They are a type of Mortgage-backed security which are backed by mortgages on residential rather than commercial real estate. (RMBS) pools will average 21% in the 2006 vintage year vintage year n. 1. The year in which a vintage wine is produced. 2. A year of outstanding achievement or success. vintage year n it's been a vintage year for plays → and 26% for the 2007 vintage year. These assumed cumulative loss rates are consistent with those currently used by Fitch for its ratings of outstanding RMBS transactions. In order to address the necessary level of capital to support a financial guarantor at the highest rating levels, expected losses are further stressed to arrive at 'AA' and 'AAA' capital thresholds. This is done to capture the risk that losses could grow higher than expected due to a more severe downturn in the economy, sharper than expected declines in home prices, higher than expected loan defaults, or other adverse developments beyond expectations. The majority of SCA's insured SF CDO transactions were underwritten in the problematic 2006 and 2007 vintage years, and $3.6 billion of these exposures were underwritten to non-senior tranches of the high-grade CDOs. A majority of these non-senior transactions have experienced noticeable credit deterioration and Fitch expects they will ultimately suffer high loss given defaults, and make up a disproportionate share of SCA's future expected SF CDO losses. All of these non-senior transactions are part of the aforementioned MLI contracts. Fitch's assessment of SCA's capital adequacy also incorporates existing deterioration to the company's insured RMBS portfolio, particularly transactions backed by prime second-lien mortgages, which totaled approximately $4.5 billion as of Dec. 31, 2007 and subprime RMBS transactions. Given current market conditions, many of these transactions have come under considerable ratings pressure, which increases capital requirements Capital requirements Financing required for the operation of a business, composed of long-term and working capital plus fixed assets. , and SCA is expected to pay claims on several transactions in the future. Stress related to permanent credit impairment from both SF CDOs and RMBS portfolios were largely responsible for SCA posting case basis loss reserves of $699.4 million in 2007. The downgrade of the holding company debt ratings reflects greater uncertainties surrounding SCA's future earnings and ability to pay dividends on its $250 million fixed/floating series A perpetual non-cumulative preference shares. As the company announced, SCA deferred the dividend payment on this security in March 2008. Fitch will comment on the impact of the downgrade of XLCA's IFS rating on the ratings of securities insured by XLCA in a separate release. SCA is a Bermuda domiciled holding company whose primary operating subsidiaries, XLCA and XLFA, provide insurance, reinsurance, and financial products and services throughout the United States United States, officially United States of America, republic (2005 est. pop. 295,734,000), 3,539,227 sq mi (9,166,598 sq km), North America. The United States is the world's third largest country in population and the fourth largest country in area. and internationally. For Dec. 31, 2007, the company reported consolidated GAAP GAAP See: Generally Accepted Accounting Principles GAAP See generally accepted accounting principles (GAAP). assets of $3.6 billion and shareholders equity of approximately $427 million. On an aggregated basis net par outstanding totaled $165 billion as of Dec. 31, 2007. Fitch's rating definitions and the terms of use Terms of Use are rules set up by the owner of an intellectual property or service to govern how they may be legally used. In many cases, terms of service are used as a contractual agreement between a company and users of a service they provide. of such ratings are available on the agency's public site, www.fitchratings.com. Published ratings, criteria and methodologies are available from this site, at all times. Fitch's code of conduct, confidentiality, conflicts of interest, affiliate firewall, compliance and other relevant policies and procedures Policies and Procedures are a set of documents that describe an organization's policies for operation and the procedures necessary to fulfill the policies. They are often initiated because of some external requirement, such as environmental compliance or other governmental are also available from the 'Code of Conduct' section of this site. |
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