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Amazon Gone in 20 Years?


BRAZIL -- Pennsylvania State University Pennsylvania State University, main campus at University Park, State College; land-grant and state supported; coeducational; chartered 1855, opened 1859 as Farmers' High School.  Professor of Environmental Sciences James Alcock has used a sophisticated mathematical model
Note: The term model has a different meaning in model theory, a branch of mathematical logic. An artifact which is used to illustrate a mathematical idea is also called a mathematical model and this usage is the reverse of the sense explained below.
 to project the Amazon forest's future. That future is bleak, indeed. "The destruction of the Amazon rainforest could be irreversible within a decade," BBC BBC
 in full British Broadcasting Corp.

Publicly financed broadcasting system in Britain. A private company at its founding in 1922, it was replaced by a public corporation under royal charter in 1927.
 News reports. In an article in Science, Alcock suggests that rates of deforestation deforestation

Process of clearing forests. Rates of deforestation are particularly high in the tropics, where the poor quality of the soil has led to the practice of routine clear-cutting to make new soil available for agricultural use.
 caused by logging, mining and agricultural clearing could reach 42 percent by 2020. Previous estimates had concluded the Amazon would reach total ecological collapse in 75 to 100 years. Alcock's figures suggest that the death of the Amazon could come as early as 2040 with the point-of-no-return occurring within 10 to 15 years. A quarter of the Amazon river basin has already vanished, Alcock notes, which means a serious loss of evapo-transpiration that will lead to a drier future climate in the region. Alcock, whose research was presented before the Geology Societies of America and london conference in Scotland in June, believes his model could also serve as a prophesy proph·e·sy  
v. proph·e·sied , proph·e·sy·ing , proph·e·sies

v.tr.
1. To reveal by divine inspiration.

2. To predict with certainty as if by divine inspiration. See Synonyms at foretell.
 for the fate of the tropical forests of southeast Asia and the Congo River Basin.
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Copyright 2001 Gale, Cengage Learning. All rights reserved.

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Publication:Earth Island Journal
Article Type:Brief Article
Geographic Code:30SOU
Date:Dec 22, 2001
Words:178
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