Alzheimer's costs could overwhelm Medicare, Medicaid: July 30.

The rate of Medicare beneficiaries identified as having Alzheimer's disease rose 250% during the 1990s, says a study by Duke University researchers. This study and three others suggest that Alzheimer's disease is the public health crisis of the 21st century as diagnosis and awareness of the disease increases.

"Unless a prevention or cure is found soon, Alzheimer's disease will overwhelm our already stretched health care system and bankrupt Medicare and Medicaid," said Sheldon Goldberg, president and CEO of the Alzheimer's Association. "Medicare expenditures for people with Alzheimer's are almost three times higher than the average for all beneficiaries." He said Medicare spending for beneficiaries with Alzheimer's will triple between now and 2015, from $62 billion in 2000 to $189 billion in 2015. State and federal Medicaid spending on nursing home care for people with Alzheimer's disease is estimated to rise from $19 billion in 2000 to $27 billion in 2015.

The Alzheimer's Association notes that as baby boomers enter the age of greatest risk, the number of new cases will increase by nearly 1 million each year. The total number of people with the disease is expected to grow from an estimated 4.5 million today to as many as 16 million by 2050. Current national direct and indirect costs of caring for individuals with Alzheimer's have reached at least $100 billion, according to estimates used by the Alzheimer's Association and the National Institute of Aging.

The study was presented at the Alzheimer's Association's Ninth International Conference on Alzheimer's Disease and Related Disorders.