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Already jolted real estate market takes another hit: most dramatic impact is expected to be only temporary.


New home sales New Home Sales

An economic indicator that measures sales of newly built homes. Released by the U.S. Department of Commerce's Census Bureau, it includes both quantity and price statistics.
 in the part of town where homes are being built -- the Santa Clarita Santa Clarita, city (1990 pop. 110,642), Los Angeles co., S Calif., suburb 30 mi (48 km) NW of downtown Los Angeles, on the Santa Clara River; inc. 1987. Situated in the Santa Clara valley and nearby canyons, Santa Clarita includes the former towns of Canyon Country,  and Antelope valleys -- are expected to come to a temporary standstill in the wake of the Northridge earthquake The Northridge earthquake occurred on January 17, 1994 at 4:31 AM Pacific Standard Time in the city of Los Angeles, California. The earthquake had a "strong" moment magnitude of 6. , since those communities have been almost entirely cut off from the city of Los Angeles
For the city, see Los Angeles, California.
The City of Los Angeles was a streamlined passenger train jointly operated by the Chicago and North Western Railway and the Union Pacific Railroad.
.

Meanwhile, commercial real estate brokers are busy finding temporary space for companies whose buildings are being inspected and are temporarily uninhabitable. And brokers are trying to close sales on properties, in escrow at the time of the Jan. 17 Northridge earthquake, which may have suffered structural damage.

Eric Elder, vice president of marketing for Kaufman & Broad Home Corp., which is building and selling four subdivisions in the Santa Clarita Valley The Santa Clarita Valley is the valley of the Santa Clara River in Southern California. It stretches through Los Angeles County and Ventura County. Its main population center is the city of Santa Clarita. The valley was part of the 48,612-acre (19,672. , said he is optimistic that the effects of the quake on home sales will be short-lived. "Obviously, in the near term, people have a large psychological lump to get over," said Elder.

"There will be a period of time in which people won't think about buying. But people are pretty resilient. ... I don't think anyone will (buy homes in the Santa Clarita Valley) immediately, but we know the transportation will be fixed eventually."

Elder predicted some people considering buying homes in the affordable Santa Clarita Valley may look to slightly more expensive suburbs, such as Oxnard, Ventura and the Tri-Cities are (Pasadena, Glendale, Burbank).

"If access (to the Santa Clarita Valley) is poor, I think it's going to help the San Fernando Valley San Fernando Valley

Valley, southern California, U.S. Northwest of central Los Angeles, the valley is bounded by the San Gabriel, Santa Susana, and Santa Monica mountains and the Simi Hills.
," said Bill Rheinschild, president of RWR RWR Radar Warning Receiver
RWR Ronald Wilson Reagan (40th President of the USA)
RWR Royal Winnipeg Rifles (Canada)
RWR Reword (proofreading) 
 Builders in Van Nuys, which is building and selling a subdivision in Granada Hills.

Rheinschild and Elder agreed that, in the long run, new home sales should be helped by the earthquake, since new homes are built to stricter building codes.

"A lot of people will say, 'Gee, I'd feel a lot safer in a new home,'" Elder predicted.

Residential brokers said the main impact of the quake on existing home sales Existing Home Sales

An economic indicator of both the number and prices of existing single family houses, condos and co-op sales over a one-month period. Released monthly by the U.S.
 has been on properties currently in escrow, as buyers attempt to "bail out" of purchases of property that may have suffered structural damage. "Fixing properties could slow things down economically, as people can't sell their homes to move out (of earthquake-affected areas)," said Rick Walton, manager of the Ventura office of Coldwell Banker Residential Real Estate. "You'll need inspections, disclosure agreements.

"Decisions on commuting may cause buyers to look more favorably at Oxnard and slightly more expensive areas. We'll have to wait and see whether people move from the San Fernando Valley to Ventura County. ... I don't think you'll see a mass exodus from the San Fernando Valley area."

Jim Rodriguez, vice president of the Apartment Owners Association of Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, , said "obviously buyers are going to look askance a·skance   also a·skant
adv.
1. With disapproval, suspicion, or distrust: "The area is so dirty that merchants report the tourists are looking askance" Chris Black.
" at purchasing apartment buildings in the Los Angeles Los Angeles (lôs ăn`jələs, lŏs, ăn`jəlēz'), city (1990 pop. 3,485,398), seat of Los Angeles co., S Calif.; inc. 1850.  area right now, but landlords of sturdy buildings may benefit from the increased need for safe space.

"There will be a hiatus (from building sales), but I think it will be a short-term effect," said Rodriguez. "All those apartment buildings that have been condemned may have a positive impact on all the vacancies we've had. Once you eliminate those units, you have less units to rent."

Rodriguez predicted some apartment dwellers may move to "a part of town they believe is less prone" to earthquakes, and a few may buy homes.

"It may push a few over the edge. They may say, 'I've had it with apartments. I think homes are safer,'" said Rodriguez.

Howie Foster of Grubb & Ellis Co. in Sherman Oaks said some apartment building sales in the works "will be subject to review," but he predicted that in the long-term, "sophisticated investors" will respond to the demand for new apartments and build them.

"We still are in a recessionary period. Unless financial aid is available, I don't know Don't know (DK, DKed)

"Don't know the trade." A Street expression used whenever one party lacks knowledge of a trade or receives conflicting instructions from the other party.
 who's going to be building," countered John Kerin For the Australian reproductive doctor, see .

John Charles Kerin, AM (born November 21 1937) is an Australian economist and former Labor politician.

He worked at the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics (ABARE), before being elected to the
, vice president of Marcus & Millichap Real Estate Investment Brokerage Co.

"One of my biggest things so far is to see if we still have escrows and how many are going to close," he said.

He said he did not expect major, long-term impacts on the market for apartment buildings.

The County of Los Angeles last week estimated that 47 residential structures (homes and apartment/condo buildings) had been destroyed in the quake, and 1,770 had been damaged.

On the commercial and industrial end of the market, Foster said phones at his San Fernando Valley office were "ringing off the hook" when the office reopened Jan. 19. The calls were coming from "people in office and industrial space that has been condemned."

The county estimated that 64 commercial buildings had been damaged in the earthquake.

Thad Seligman, manager of the West Los Angeles
  • West Los Angeles, Los Angeles, California, a neighborhood of Los Angeles
  • West Los Angeles (region), a popularly identified region of Los Angeles, incorporating the neighborhood above
 office of Grubb & Ellis, said numerous commercial tenants are looking for Looking for

In the context of general equities, this describing a buy interest in which a dealer is asked to offer stock, often involving a capital commitment. Antithesis of in touch with.
 two-month to six-month interim space, while the safety of their office buildings is assessed.

While no hard figures were immediately available on the amount of commercial space taken off the market, anecdotal information indicated that most of the leases being negotiated were for short-term interim space in the same neighborhoods where the tenants' buildings were damaged.

"They (tenants) don't have the luxury of time. Space will be leased. There will be movement," said Seligman. "The Westside has enough vacancies to accommodate these interim space users."

He added there is demand on the Westside for short-term leases of executive suites, which come complete with floor receptionists and other services.

Foster said there's plenty of space available throughout the greater metropolitan area to accommodate stranded tenants.

"Absolutely -- we've suffered from over-building in Southern California," Foster noted.

Seth Dudley of Julien J. Studley Inc. said there is currently a premium on "large blocks of space that's ready to move into in the (San Fernando San Fernando, city, Argentina
San Fernando (săn fərnăn`dō), city (1991 pop. 144,761), Buenos Aires prov., E Argentina. It is a district administrative center in the Greater Buenos Aires area.
) Valley."

But since most of the space permanently destroyed is in older, brick buildings -- not Class A office buildings -- the long-term impact on the commercial real estate market is not expected to be significant, Dudley said. "Some tenants will move for two to three months and then move back," said Dudley. "What landlords will see is a lot of six-month leases. Landlords with space on the market will be delighted."

The San Fernando Valley's overall office vacancy rate for 1993 was estimated at between 14.5 percent and 19.3 percent. Commercial leasing activity in the valley slowed just prior to the quake, during the November/December period of 1993. Brokers added that some companies are leasing office space in the Santa Clarita and Antelope valleys to accommodate employees who live there.

The earthquake also resulted in a loss of retail space from Santa Monica Santa Monica (săn`tə mŏn`ĭkə), city (1990 pop. 86,905), Los Angeles co., S Calif., on Santa Monica Bay; inc. 1886. Tourism and retailing are important, and the city has motion-picture, biotechnology, and software industries.  to West Los Angeles to the valleys.

MEPC MEPC Marine Environment Protection Committee
MEPC Middle East Policy Council
MEPC Malawi Export Promotion Council
MEPC Military Entrance Processing Command
MEPC Medical Examination Publishing Company
MEPC Most Efficient Cost Producer
 American Properties of Texas just last month purchased the Northridge Fashion Center Northridge Fashion Center is a large shopping mall located in Northridge, California. It opened in 1971. It was severely damaged during the Northridge Earthquake in 1994, but renovated extensively in 1995 and 1998. , which suffered significant quake damage. Officials with MEPC said the company was proceeding quickly with repairs and speeding up renovation plans and did not expect much impact on retail leases. The company had heavily insured the mall against earthquake damage and business interruption.

"We haven't had a surge of people saying they want to leave. And No. 2, they can't; the leases don't allow for it," said MEPC President David Gruber. He said he anticipates that retail tenant interest in the San Fernando Valley "will come back" quickly.

Prior to the earthquake, the real estate industry was forecasting that valley malls in 1994 would begin to attract a greater number of value-oriented retailers.

The Antelope Valley retail market, on the other hand, is considered overbuilt o·ver·build  
v. o·ver·built , o·ver·build·ing, o·ver·builds

v.tr.
1. To build over or on top of.

2. To construct more buildings in (an area) than necessary.

3.
. New shopping centers built in the 1980s and early 1990s, in anticipation of new home construction, are now isolated in desolate locations.

At Newhall Land & Farming Co., spokeswoman Marlee Lauffer said there was very little damage to the new Valencia Town Center, and she didn't expect the retail real estate market in the Newhall area to be significantly affected by the quake.

Lauffer said her firm is still assessing damage at various developments and hasn't made any decision about whether to slow down its vigorous development plans.
COPYRIGHT 1994 CBJ, L.P.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 1994, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Article Details
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Author:Rackham, Anne
Publication:Los Angeles Business Journal
Date:Jan 24, 1994
Words:1328
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