All that's missing is change; a look back at 2003 shows unmet agendas, politicians treading water.

In the two years prior to 2003, there was a great expectation of profound change in the nation's political life. In 2003, democratic change in Mexico has lost its inertia.

Even though President Fox's structural reforms sat idle in Congress three years after he made history, there was still an air of hope that the midterm elections would clear the road of obstacles. However, the polls came and went, and the gridlock remains.

The result of the midterm congressional elections was that there were no absolute winners and losers. The Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) regained Chamber of Deputies seats but did not achieve the internal unity as a party that would have allowed it to consolidate as a legislative faction and force its agenda on other parties.

The National Action Party (PAN) lost legislative ground but escaped practically unscathed thanks to the continuing high public approval rating of the president. The Party of the Democratic Revolution (PRD) virtually swept the capital, mainly because of the work of Mayor Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, but it didn't increase its visibility in the states.

Faced with this panorama, the government and political parties quickly adapted their strategies. All agreed on the need to negotiate and reach accords to push forward concrete changes the country needs and the business community demands. But within parties, the nasty struggles for 2006 presidential nominations are beginning to turn off the public.

During his Informe, Fox said what was already suspected. He confirmed he would not participate in supporting any presidential candidate, a statement that gave the green light for aspirants to Los Pinos to start making moves. Since then, Fox and his team have put all their energies into negotiations with the PRI in an effort pass reform proposals, deepening divisions between hard-liners and moderates within the parties.

PROBLEMS AT IFE 

But even before minor advances could be made on important reform issues, the new Congress has already registered its first setback. It couldn't agree on the elections of new members to the board of the Federal Electoral Institute.

The three largest parties in Congress were allowed to designate IFE members based on the number of representatives they have in the lower house, meaning the PRI and PAN could choose three members and the PRD two. However, the PRD's appointees were rejected, and its selection was divided between the PRI and the PAN. This method of choosing board members of the IFE, which oversees all federal elections, deprives the board of the legitimacy upon which it depends.

Moreover, new IFE President Luis Carlos Ugalde has been linked to the PRI. That, on top of the fact that he wasn't unanimously elected, complicates a presidency in which he is expected to be a mediator and to smooth differences within the IFE.

Of the nine new board members, only four have electoral experience, and of those, only two can really be considered specialists in the area--a worrisome fact going into the 2006 federal elections.

Recent ebbs and flows are leading to growing opinions that the PRI could retake the presidency and possibly regain its former power. But if the PRI returns to power, would Mexico go back to its totalitarian ways? The answer is no.

Despite disagreements between parties, there have been irreversible advancements since Fox took power, including a stronger rule of law pushed by a more active Supreme Court and the Freedom of Information law.

The nation's movement toward substantive change certainly has lost speed, but it has not stopped. What is clear is that democratization in Mexico won't be the product of one presidential term, one person or one party. This is the lesson politics left us in 2003.

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Commentary by Joel Estudillo Rendon

Joel Estudillo Rendon is a member of the board of the Mexican Institute for Political Studies.