All eyes on Washington.

Byline: The Register-Guard

If big anti-war protest marches had a short-term effect on national policy, the United States would have never invaded Iraq. On Feb. 15, 2003, millions of people in hundreds of cities around the world demonstrated against the invasion. The gathering on that day of an estimated 3 million people in Rome is listed in the 2004 Guinness Book of World Records as the largest anti-war rally in history.

So even if organizers generate a massive turnout for Saturday's scheduled march on Washington, D.C., to protest President Bush's plan to send 21,500 more U.S. troops to Iraq, don't expect Bush to back up an inch. He doesn't call himself The Decider for nothing.

That doesn't mean a demonstrative outpouring of opposition to the Iraq war would be futile, but it would have more of a time-release effect. Its principal target would be members of Congress and anybody who plans to run for election in 2008 for anything from precinct captain to president of the United States.

A well-attended march wouldn't surprise most Americans. They've had it with Bush's bungling in Iraq. Sixty-eight percent in the latest Newsweek poll say they oppose Bush's plan to send more troops. Seventy percent "disapprove of the way Bush is handling the situation in Iraq," the highest disapproval rating since the 2003 invasion.

The public is less certain what to do next. They're evenly divided over whether to withdraw U.S. forces immediately or maintain current troop levels, with 46 percent favoring an immediate pullout and 45 percent wanting to hold the line.

They're similarly conflicted about whether Congress should pull the plug on funding for the war, with 46 percent saying funds should be cut off and 46 percent opposing any reduction in fiscal support.

But if asked about the Iraq Study Group's recommendation to withdraw most U.S. combat troops by 2008 while keeping U.S. forces there to train and advise Iraqi troops, 60 percent support the recommendation and only 31 percent oppose it.

Perhaps most telling in the latest survey is the public's assessment of who's winning the war in Iraq. Only 16 percent believe the United States is winning. Almost the same number (15 percent) say the insurgents are winning. Two out of three say no one is winning, a position with which it's difficult to argue.

As the nation continues to search for a way out of Bush's misbegotten war, all eyes will be on Washington this weekend. Will Saturday's anti-war march be a watershed event in the struggle to bring American troops home? Or will it be another reminder that absent the threat of a military draft, Americans would rather be at a shopping mall than on the National Mall?