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Alka Seltzer Week for fund manager.


A 25-year veteran of the securities business, Norman Sarafian has seen his share of stock market ups and downs ups and downs  
pl.n.
Alternating periods of good and bad fortune or spirits.


ups and downs
Noun, pl

alternating periods of good and bad luck or high and low spirits
. But nothing could have prepared him for the extreme market turmoil of last week, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average Dow Jones Industrial Average

The best known U.S. index of stocks. A price-weighted average of 30 actively traded blue-chip stocks, primarily industrials including stocks that trade on the New York Stock Exchange.
 plunged a record 554 points on Monday, Oct. 27, only to rebound 337 points the following day.

Such volatility inspired a sense of vertigo vertigo (vûr`tĭgō), sensations of moving in space or of objects moving about a person and the resultant difficulty in maintaining equilibrium.  and even dread among many investors and market watchers. But the brokers and money managers who spend their days in the world's financial trenches consider themselves a cool-headed lot - and Sarafian is no exception.

A 48-year-old senior investment officer in the Pasadena office of the retail brokerage Crowell, Weedon & Co., Sarafian manages some $95 million in investments for about 300 active clients. He is a passionate believer in strong-performing blue chip stocks Blue chip stocks

Common stock of well-known companies with a history of growth and dividend payments.
, and saw Monday's sell-off and Tuesday's rebound less as a debacle than as a rare opportunity to purchase blue chips at bargain rates.

Nonetheless, he says, they were two days he never will forget.

I get up early every day, as early as 5:15, and watch CNBC CNBC Center for the Neural Basis of Cognition (artificial intelligence)
CNBC Consumer News and Business Channel
CNBC Congress of National Black Churches, Inc.
 over breakfast. On Monday, they were reporting that the Globex Index (an index of globally traded futures contracts based on the S&P 500) had dropped to the maximum. The Hang Seng Hang Seng

An index of the leading stocks on the Hong Kong stock market.

Notes:
The Hang Seng Index (HSI) comprises different stocks that are representative of the whole Hong Kong market.
See also: DAX, Index, Nikkei, S&P 500
 also was down. All of these dire faces on CNBC were telling me that the market was going to open down sharply. I decided to get to work early to evaluate what the magnitude of the drop might be.

It started out as a day like any other. We knew that the market would be down, but we've been conditioned to have down days. I didn't notice anything unusual.

The market dropped 100 points in the first hour. It stayed weak and continued to get weaker by the hour. When the drop went beyond 200 points, the phone began ringing they weren't exactly panic calls, but people were concerned. "Am I losing all my money? What should we do?"

I told them to look back at April. when we had a significant drop that lasted several weeks. Remember 1987? It was terrible for six weeks, but look at what the aftermath brought. Instead of being pessimistic about the day, I tried to tell them to be optimistic op·ti·mist  
n.
1. One who usually expects a favorable outcome.

2. A believer in philosophical optimism.



op
 about the next six months.

I felt like this was not something to be overly concerned about. That was my personal feeling and I kept it to myself, because you never know. It's all crystal-ball gazing. But I felt pretty comfortable that this was more a psychological issue than an economic issue.

My clientele is mostly a retail clientele - that is, individual investors with $10,000 to $4 million. They don't need to perform in the short term, so they're not necessarily going to be hung up on a swing like this. I tried to nibble Half a byte (four bits).

(data) nibble - /nib'l/ (US "nybble", by analogy with "bite" -> "byte") Half a byte. Since a byte is nearly always eight bits, a nibble is nearly always four bits (and can therefore be represented by one hex digit).
 on a few good names and capitalize on Cap´i`tal`ize on`   

v. t. 1. To turn (an opportunity) to one's advantage; to take advantage of (a situation); to profit from; as, to capitalize on an opponent's mistakes s>.
 the drop. Let's take a position in a Compaq Computer, in a Ford Motor Co. Let's look at some of these blue chips that have been damaged and nibble.

We were all watching the news, and talking to Noun 1. talking to - a lengthy rebuke; "a good lecture was my father's idea of discipline"; "the teacher gave him a talking to"
lecture, speech

rebuke, reprehension, reprimand, reproof, reproval - an act or expression of criticism and censure; "he had to
 each other more than usual. "What do you think is happening? What will happen next?" Once you get past minus 225 or so, that's not normal. Over 225, you start wondering, "What is going on here?"

Then they halted trading. The frustration of not being able to do business sank in. During that half-hour, I made some calls to my more market-sensitive clients and explained what was happening. When trading began again, everything happened so fast. I think the circuit breaker circuit breaker, electric device that, like a fuse, interrupts an electric current in a circuit when the current becomes too high. The advantage of a circuit breaker is that it can be reset after it has been tripped; a fuse must be replaced after it has been used  helped the market sell off even faster. Everyone was nervous.

I had lunch with my manager, Luis Shackett. We talked about what to do, some new offerings that we might try, some income-sensitive things that might make sense. How do we deal with this unusual situation?

After lunch, I continued to make calls to people who might be willing to capitalize on the fall. Intel, Compaq, Dell ... some of the technology shares had been unusually beaten down. Looking at the depressed blue chips, you had to feel there was reason to be nibbling nibbling Nutrition The consumption of multiple–up to 17–'mini-meals' per day, as opposed to the usual 3 meals/day. Cf Bingeing, Gorging. . It's a chance you normally don't see. I mean, how many times in your life will you see a 550 point drop?

I spent the afternoon on the phone and went home at about 6. It wasn't a happy day and I was relieved to get it over with. My nerves were frayed. I was on the phone the entire time. I think it was the longest day I've had.

Normally, I wouldn't waste my time watching all the news reports, but I spent the evening in front of the television. My wife was very annoyed with me and even told me to watch the football game instead.

I got up at 4:30 on Tuesday. On CNBC, they were saying, "Brace yourself for a terrible day." I was prepared for anything. I was looking as an opportunist op·por·tun·ist  
n.
One who takes advantage of any opportunity to achieve an end, often with no regard for principles or consequences.



op
 and planned on doing a lot of buying. I entered a couple of orders that didn't get executed. It was ragged in the early morning. But once I saw the buying step in, I knew it was going to be a big day.

The problem was, I couldn't execute buys on the prices quoted on the screen.

There was one company on Nasdaq, American Coin; I'd seen the road show and was confident. It was initially offered at $16, but because of Monday's drop, it was selling at $10. I could not get through to the dealer. As the market turned, the price went up. Now it was at $12-7/8. I really wanted to get this, but we still couldn't get through. I was so frustrated. An hour later, it was offered at $15. The opportunity was lost.

I was on the phone all day. We were buying up blue chips, and taking selling orders to get into better stocks. The volume really shocked me. I remember having 9 million-share days; now we're trading 1.2 billion shares in one day. That was shocking.

I was exhausted when I got home that night. I had dinner. I did some homework with my kids, just trying to get my mind off the day.

As for the future, I'm extremely bullish. I never did believe in international investing. I think this debacle overseas is going to be very instructive for many people. You don't know Don't know (DK, DKed)

"Don't know the trade." A Street expression used whenever one party lacks knowledge of a trade or receives conflicting instructions from the other party.
 what you're investing in when you buy into Hong Kong Hong Kong (hŏng kŏng), Mandarin Xianggang, special administrative region of China, formerly a British crown colony (2005 est. pop. 6,899,000), land area 422 sq mi (1,092 sq km), adjacent to Guangdong prov.  or China. Do we really know what the accounting principles are? A lot of the foreign funds have been decimated.

My theory is, this will open a new wave of imagination about what's possible in our markets instead of playing in foreign markets. People are going to bring their money back home. I think we're in for a very bullish time.
COPYRIGHT 1997 CBJ, L.P.
No portion of this article can be reproduced without the express written permission from the copyright holder.
Copyright 1997, Gale Group. All rights reserved. Gale Group is a Thomson Corporation Company.

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Title Annotation:Asia's Troubles Threaten L.A.; Norman Sarafian
Author:Kanter, Larry
Publication:Los Angeles Business Journal
Date:Nov 3, 1997
Words:1151
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