Ahmadinejad looks set to be re-elected.

It is highly likely that Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad will be re-elected on June 12. Opinion polls this month have put him more than 36 points ahead of his nearest rival, independent reformist and former prime minister Mir Hussain Mousavi.

On May 11, the supreme leader of the Islamic Revolution, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei implied that Ahmadinejad had his backing too when he declared that, "we should elect the one who lives in a simple and modest way... who is pained by the pain of his people".

Khamenei's words show that he has his finger on the pulse of the Iranian people: from the beginning of his first term in 2005, Ahmadinejad has eschewed the material rewards of office.

He declined the use of a presidential plane, drives an old car, takes a home-made lunch to the office with him and lives in a humble flat in Tehran. These populist habits and his rural, labouring background - he is from a family of blacksmiths - have endeared him to Iran's working classes whilst his conservatism ensures the support of those with a fundamentalist agenda.

Against him stand those with the most to lose - the moneyed 'elite', those who long for Iran to be more 'Westernised' and the dethroned aristocracy.

On the domestic front Iran has its share of problems, many of which have worsened under Ahmadinejad's watch: with inflation soaring over 25 per cent and unemployment at 12.5 per cent, the economy is crumbling.

Promises to redeem the situation have yet to yield results but it must also be viewed in the light of falling oil prices, soaring Iranian birth rates, US and UN economic sanctions - from 1996 and 2006 respectively - and the global financial crash which has left no-one unscathed. In respect to the latter, Iran has fared better than most Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec) since it has invested in domestic enterprises and diversified its production.

In March 2007, its non-oil export revenue was up by 47 per cent on the previous year at $16.3 billion (Dh60 billion).

Iran's human rights record is undeniably poor and rightly condemned. However, due to the complicated power structure in Iran - which is dominated by the Islamic Revolution's Supreme National Security Council, Ahmadinejad cannot be held solely accountable for this, and last Monday's release of US-born journalist Roxana Saberi may indicate that some improvement in this respect is under way. In regional terms, Iran is a leader on the slow path towards greater democracy and freedom of expression.

But it is on the international stage that Ahmadinejad has served his people particularly well. Thoughtful and shrewd strategic and diplomatic planning have transformed Iran into a regional superpower, forging alliances with mighty new global players (China, India and Russia) and emerging revolutionary powers such as Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua.

As a result, while the US can afford a haughty attitude to certain other Middle Eastern regimes, it has been forced to change its tune where Iran is concerned. US President Barack Obama has engaged in earnest attempts at rapprochement, promising a 'new beginning', membership of the World Trade Association, economic investment and normalised diplomatic relationships if Iran will 'unclench its fist'.

The fist in question holds not only the increasingly realistic prospect of nuclear capability, but Sajil missiles with a 2,000 kilometre range. Iran's burgeoning military capacity has continued to develop despite threats from the West, largely due to Ahmadinejad's ability to prolong negotiations without actually conceding anything.

Israel is understandably nervous but, whereas previous threats of a unilateral strike on Iran had been tacitly okayed by the US, Vice-President Joseph Biden, charged with the administration's non-proliferation agenda, recently declared that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be 'ill-advised' to take that course of action.

Ahmadinejad is a small man who always wears the same crumpled suit, but wherever he goes he is the centre of media attention, repeatedly stealing the limelight from his heavyweight peers among world leaders. It would not be an exaggeration to say that he is the most influential person in the Muslim world at present.

He is a man who is not afraid to speak his mind - another characteristic that endears him to his people and the Muslim world in general. His outspoken attack on Israel's 'racist government' at the UN in Geneva on April 20 is a clear example.

His statement back in 2005 regarding the 'myth' of the holocaust was misjudged and wrong but his stand against Zionism, his support for Palestinian and Lebanese freedom fighters, his condemnation of Israel's historic wrongdoing, its past and recent massacres of Palestinians, the danger it poses to international stability, are all commendable and correct.

Ahmadinejad's words are backed by deeds, something which simultaneously alarms the US-Israeli axis and inspires the Muslim world. On the 30th anniversary of its Islamic Revolution (February 3, 2009), Iran's advanced technological capabilities were dramatically demonstrated with the launch of the country's first home-produced satellite called Omid, which means 'hope'.

If Ahmadinejad is re-elected, the subsequent six months will prove crucial to the way he enters the history books. The Israelis are beating the drums of war against an ever more threatening Iran and Obama may yet take that course if US attempts at rapprochement go nowhere. Such a conclusion would be disastrous, destabilising to the entire region and with the real possibility of wider involvement.

If, however, Ahmadinejad's brinksmanship brings about a lasting peace, the incentives the US is proposing will consolidate Iran's role as the major regional superpower, its nuclear programme will re-shape the balance of power in the Middle East and Ahmadinejad will emerge as a national hero.

Abdel Bari Atwan is editor of the pan-Arab newspaper Al Quds Al Arabi.

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