Agencies list possible cuts, system losses.

Byline: David Steves The Register-Guard

SALEM - Measure 30's failure next month could translate into 27 fewer school days, the elimination of drug coverage and medical treatment for tens of thousands of low-income families, layoffs for 60 crime-lab specialists and another round of university tuition increases, according to a series of documents made public Wednesday.

The list of possible cuts if the $800 million tax measure fails Feb. 3 were drawn up by state agencies in response to an order by Gov. Ted Kulongoski.

Lawmakers, who crafted the tax package as part of a budget-balancing session last year, also passed legislation requiring specific reductions in major spending areas to go into effect May 1 should the voters shoot down the tax package.

The reports represent state education, health care and public safety agencies' attempts to illustrate how those `disappropriations' might play out. It would be up to the Legislature to come into special session if voters turn down Measure 30 so it can come up with alternatives to the latest cuts lists. Otherwise the cuts will stand.

The biggest area of reductions would fall to public schools. If K-12 districts were hit by a $414 million reduction, the Department of Education reported that could mean the loss of nearly 8,000 teachers and other licensed staff statewide. That would result in the growth in class size of nearly four students per elementary classroom, five students per middle- and high-school classroom. Or, schools could absorb the hit by shaving 27 days off the academic calendar.

John Marshall, a lobbyist with the Oregon School Boards Association, called the Department of Education summary `a good global perspective' in what the revenue loss would mean to Oregon public schools.

`But obviously, where the cuts come from will be individual school board decisions,' Marshall added.

For Oregon's seven public universities, the reduction would mean a systemwide loss of $7.5 million. For the University of Oregon, it would deliver a 25 percent cut in funding for undergraduate classes and services.

In his letter to the Budget and Management Division, Oregon University System senior vice chancellor Tom Andresen said it would be impossible to absorb reductions without eroding the quality of Oregon's higher education system, which is budgeted currently at the same level it was in 1991.

`The potential reductions include additional tuition hikes, higher class sizes and program reductions,' Andresen wrote.

Community colleges would forego $6.8 million, which state education officials said would mean fewer opportunities for professional and technical training, pre-university course work, and language skills for non-English speaking adults. At Lane Community College, the reduction would be $900,000, according to the state Community College and Workforce Development Department.

The Department of Human Service's cuts list calls for a reduction of $231 million in state funds, which would trigger the loss of millions more in federal matching aid.

In the area of human services, health care for lower income Oregonians without their own medical insurance would be cut most deeply, said Department of Human Services Director Jean Thorne.

Nearly every element of Oregon's pioneering health care program, the Oregon Health Plan, would be eliminated, turning the clock back more than a decade to the days when Oregon met only the federally required standards of a Medicaid program for those entitled to care because they were poor, elderly, disabled or met other eligibility standards.

`At this level of reduction, you can't do much more than a mandatory Medicaid plan,' she said.

Roughly 61,000 poor adults who don't qualify for Medicaid would lose coverage. Prescription drug coverage would be eliminated for all adults, including those who meet the Medicaid standards and would remain on OHP. Drug and alcohol treatment would be terminated. Dental and vision care also would be done away with for these adults.

To cut $3.9 million, the Oregon State Police would reduce crime lab staffing by more than 55 percent. Statewide, the crime labs employ 107. The cuts will bring 60 layoffs, including more than half of the staff doing DNA testing to solve crimes.

The cuts also will reduce testing for cases involving drugs, firearms and fingerprints - leaving the state police with the same level of crime lab staffing that it had in 1985.

"It's potentially catastrophic. The system is collapsing," said Chief Deputy Lane County District Attorney Kent Mortimore. "We train them and then we lay them off. The idea that we're going through it again - I just can't find words."

Cutbacks in the Oregon Youth Authority will total $8.6 million. The cuts will reduce parole supervision for youths released from state prisons as well as counseling services, alcohol and drug treatment and shelter programs for less-serious offenders and for neglected children removed from their families, said Lisa Smith, director of the Lane County Department of Youth Services.

"To get that $8.6 million, there's going to have to be some significant changes throughout the state," Smith said.

The state's prison system will take a $6.8 million cut - about 2.6 percent of the biennial budget. However, community corrections programs will shoulder a $17.8 million cut - almost 17 percent of the remaining budget.

In Lane County, community corrections programs took a $3 million reduction in the last state budget cycle - a cut that contributed to the closure of 119 county jail beds, county Parole and Probation Manager Linda Eaton said.

Chuck Deister, a spokesman for House Speaker Karen Minnis, R-Wood Village, said lawmakers haven't ruled out a special session to come up with alternatives to the agencies' cuts, should Measure 30 go down.

`I'm sure that members are going to question the choices made by agencies,' he said. `The principles and choices aren't reflective of our members'.'

Had it not been for the Legislature's two tortured years dealing with the recession-caused plummet in state income tax revenues, education lobbyist Marshall said he would share Deister's optimism that lawmakers could find ways to avoid the most painful cuts. But after the record-number five budget-rebalancing special sessions in 2002, a failed tax referral on the January 2003 ballot, and the longest regular session on the books last year - before the Legislature came up with the package of higher personal and corporate taxes and other revenue raisers now on the ballot as Measure 30 - Marshall said he expected the cuts to be the only viable choice should voters turn down higher taxes.

`I don't see what options they have,' he said. `If it fails, I say let the cuts go in place.'

Senate President Peter Courtney, D-Salem, refused to speculate about what the Legislature will or won't do to prevent the cuts.

`To me, the issue is what the voters have to say about our budget,' he said. `I'm doing the best I can to see that it passes.'

PROPOSED CUTS

Education:

K-12: $414 million, equal to elimination of 8,000 teachers and staff and adding up to five students per classroom or loss of 27 school days.

Community colleges: $6.8 million, reducing access for 3,300 students.

University system: $7.5 million, leading to tuition hikes, larger classes and program reductions.

Human Services:

Oregon Health Plan: Elimination of dental and prescription drug coverage, termination of coverage for 61,000 adults in the "OHP Standard" program, halt in coverage of mental health and drug treatment.

Senior services: Continued suspension of long-term care for 1,200 elderly people so cuts elsewhere could be offset.

Public safety:

Oregon Youth Authority: $5.8 million, by keeping closed a juvenile lockup on the North Coast, closing 40 to 50 beds statewide, and reductions to community, foster-care and parole/probation services.

Adult corrections: $6.8 million, by reducing payments to counties that lock up inmates in state custody, and eliminating parole/probation officers and treatment slots for prisoners with drug, mental-health, anger-management and sexual deviancy problems.

Oregon State Police: $3.9 million, equal to 60 forensics positions in crime labs, returning to 1985 staffing levels.

MEASURE 30 TALK

The City Club of Eugene will host a discussion on Measure 30 at 11:50 a.m. Friday at the Hilton Hotel. Sen. Frank Morse will speak in support of the measure and Rep. Jeff Kruse will speak against it.