After velvet, iron....

CZECHOSLOVAKIA'S first genuine multi-party elections on June 5-6 confirm every federalist's worst fears: the two republics are heading in opposite and irreconcilable directions. Free-market reform parties triumphed in the Czech lands and were eliminated by the nationalist Left in Slovakia.

The only positive international reaction to the outcome in Slovakia has come from Havana. According to the Cuban daily, Trabajadores, Vladimir Meciar's Movement for a Democratic Slovakia (HZDS) is "the only power in Czechoslovakia now capable of stepping economic reform and the privatization program of federal Finance Minister Vaclav Klaus." As Trabajadores points out, "While Vaclav Klaus calls for a continuation of economic policy based solely on market mechanisms, Vladimir Meciar proposes to keep 60 per cent of industry under state control."

Although President Vaclav Havel is better known abroad, from his days as a leader in the intellectual dissent from the Communist regime, Trabajadores is right to point to Klaus as Meciar's chief target. The main stumbling block in their talks on the formation of a new federal government is control over economic policy, and it is Klaus's policy that Meciar opposes. Meciar, a former Communist turned nationalist, wants Slovak "economic sovereignty" to preserve state ownership and prop up his republic's antediluvian industries. Klaus, the champion of a resurgent Czech middle class, wants a federation that uniformly pursues the monetarist  principles he believes are crucial.

Meciar demands a central bank in each republic with equal representation on a federal board to determine monetary policy. The aim, according to his chief economist, Marian Huska, is to place "our experts" in a position to spur growth in Slovakia by inflating the currency. Klaus will never agree to this. His international reputation is based upon the stability of the Czechoslovakian crown, which has remained steady at thirty to the dollar since he took office. Dr. Jozef Kucerak, a leader of the "velvet revolution" in Slovakia, insists that "A Slovak currency would be the end of the federation."

Meciar opposes Klaus's coupon privatization scheme, under which state assets are transferred into private hands in the form of shares which citizens can trade as they please. Instead, the Slovak state would issue "certificates of ownership" in state property, which it would invest. There would be no real transfer of ownership.

Meciar also opposes the restitution of property seized by the old regime. He claims that restitution is "undemocratic" and promises, "We won't have the bourgeoisie coming here." It is a crude message designed to aggravate the envy instilled in people by forty years of class hatred. "Meciar is floating on a wave of working class popularity," says Kucerak. "The people who vote for him will never benefit from restitution."

Neither Klaus nor Meciar is in a mood to compromise. On balance, Klaus appears to be in the stronger position; he has a clear mandate to keep the federation together. Meciar, on the other hand, campaigned on a ticket of "confederation," not independence. Signs are emerging that some of those who voted for him are shocked by his separatist agenda.

Meciar also knows that Slovakia depends upon Czech subsidies, notwithstanding his frequent tirades against Czech economic "imperialism." His offer of an economic union with the Czech lands is an attempt to maintain subsidies. But Klaus will grant them only if he can be sure that they will ease, rather than postpone, the restructuring of the Slovak economy.

The West should have no illusions about Vladimir Meciar or the reactionary interests he represents. According to the outgoing Slovak prime minister, ex-dissident lawyer Jan Caruognrsky, "Meciar is not interested in constitutional government. He wants to govern absolutely." Meciar is a former senior official in the Communist Youth Union. He was educated in Moscow, the traditional finishing school of the Communist elite. He emerged from nowhere in November 1989, and soon after was appointed minister of the interior under Slovakia's first non-Communist government. In June 1990 he was made prime minister.

His contempt for democratic institutions soon became apparent. The most notorious example involved his own interior minister, Anton Andras. Andras infuriated Meciar by dismantling former Communist secret-police networks at the ministry. Meciar demanded Andras's resignation, and when Andras refused, Meciar began illegally curtailing his powers. When Andras protested, Meciar threatened to resign. Public outcry forced Andras out.

In April 1991, Meciar was dismissed as prime minister after he was discovered to have been using secret-police files to blackmail his opponents. There is no reason to assume that he has changed since then. Last week, his press spokesman announced that a non-party Government of National Unity is to be created. The intention is clear: to shift power out of political parties, and into the hands of "experts" dependent for their positions on personal loyalty to Meciar.

Meciar knows that his power lies in his, not his movement's, popularity. He uses mass rallies rather than the party machinery to mobilize support. And Slovak society has no institutions capable of acting as a brake upon political power.

Meciar will try to ensure that nothing stands between him and "the people."At his first post-election press conference, he declared that the recently privatized Danubiaprint will be returned to state hands. Danubiaprint prints every major newspaper in Slovakia. Last week Meciar announced that he seeks the abolition of federal TV and radio, claiming that they are a channel for "federal disinformation." The Slovak media are already in his hands.

Meciar's first target is likely to be the Hungarians who make up 11 per cent of the Slovakian population. The federation has thus far kept the lid on Slovak-Hungarian tensions, but Miklos Duraj, leader of the Hungarian minority, fears that deteriorating economic conditions will lead to the search for internal enemies. "Meciar," Duraj said, "reminds me of the politicians of the 1930s."