Afghanistan could be lost within a year: US commander

The top US and NATO commander in Afghanistan warned President Barack Obama in a confidential report that the war against the Taliban could be lost within a year without more troops.

In a grim assessment of the eight-year conflict leaked to the Washington Post and published on Monday, General Stanley McChrystal said a new strategy was needed and warned that "inadequate resources will likely result in failure.

"Failure to gain the initiative and reverse insurgent momentum in the near-term (next 12 months) -- while Afghan security capacity matures -- risks an outcome where defeating the insurgency is no longer possible," he wrote.

The report was presented to Defense Secretary Robert Gates on August 30 and is being reviewed by the White House, with McChrystal widely expected to make a formal request to increase the 62,000-strong US force.

McChrystal, who assumed command of international troops in Afghanistan in June, said the campaign in Afghanistan "has been historically under-resourced and remains so today."

This fact risks "a longer conflict, greater casualties, higher overall costs, and ultimately, a critical loss of political support. Any of these risks, in turn, are likely to result in mission failure," he wrote.

The 66-page document -- a declassified version of which is published at www.washingtonpost.com -- describes a strengthening, intelligent Taliban insurgency.

McChrystal is disparaging about the corruption-riddled Afghan government and the ineffective strategy by international forces that has failed to win over ordinary Afghans.

"The weakness of state institutions, malign actions of power-brokers, widespread corruption and abuse of power by various officials, and (the International Security Assistance Force's) own errors, have given Afghans little reason to support their government," he wrote.

International forces "have operated in a manner that distances us -- physically and psychologically -- from the people we seek to protect... The insurgents cannot defeat us militarily; but we can defeat ourselves."

McChrystal said the Afghans' own forces must be boosted over the next 12-18 months to maintain international support. He called for the Afghan army to be increased from 134,000 troops to 240,000, and the police force to be raised to 160,000 officers from 84,000.

The general also warned that hardline insurgents reach systematically into Afghanistan's bloated prison system for recruits.

The prisons have become "a sanctuary and base to conduct lethal operations" against the Afghan government and coalition forces, he said.

Despite all his criticism, McChrystal maintained a cautious optimism for longterm outcomes in the conflict, insisting: "While the situation is serious, success is still achievable."

The leak of the report, which was confirmed as genuine by McChrystal's spokesman in Kabul, came a day after Obama defended his delay in making a long-awaited decision about more troops.

"We're going to test whatever resources we have against our strategy, which is if by sending young men and women into harm's way, we are defeating Al-Qaeda," Obama said.

"(If) that can be shown to a sceptical audience -- namely me, somebody who is always asking hard questions about deploying troops -- then we will do what's required to keep the American people safe."

McChrystal's spokesman in Kabul, Lieutenant Colonel Tadd Sholtis, confirmed that the Washington Post had published "an unclassified version of General McChrystal's classified initial assessment."

The content of the newspaper's version was negotiated between "US government leaders, the White House and the Department of Defense" with input from NATO's International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in Afghanistan, he told AFP.

Information was omitted from the report "that would have endangered ISAF personnel and operations in Afghanistan," he said, describing the leak as "unfortunate."

"Broader public discussion of the assessment before there has been adequate time for it to circulate and be reviewed and considered by the large number of officials that oversee ISAF's efforts obviously changes the dynamic of the debate," he said.

Gates said last week that the president needed time to assess US strategy and should not be rushed over such an important decision. "We need to take our time and get this right," he told a press conference on Thursday.