Afghanistan Is Becoming A Trap For The US Once Again, With More Serious Implications.

*** Ridiculing The Planned Loya Jirga In Dec. 2003 As A 'Drama Whose Central Figures Are Jews And Christians', The Taliban Leader Mullah Omar  Calls On Afghans To Expel US Forces From The Country

*** In Recent Weeks The US & The Karzai Govt. Have Released More Than 60 Taliban Prisoners From Afghan Prisons & From Guantanamo Bay 

*** Iran Is Worried That The US May Be Going Soft On The Taliban To Please Pakistan And To Ensure Its Full Support In A Conflict With Tehran Over Its Nuclear Programme

NICOSIA - With the focus of the Bush administration currently directed to Iraq, a creeping return of the Taliban and Al Qaida is taking place in Afghanistan. This is happening on the districts bordering Pakistan, especially in south-eastern Afghanistan, which used to be the Taliban stronghold. Left unchallenged by the US, or if the challenge is ineffective, the phenomenon will spread to other parts of the country as well. There is a high risk that America will once again face a trap which, if overlooked or tolerated as it was during the 1990s when the Taliban consolidated in Afghanistan, will eventually led up to the events similar to what happened on Sept. 11, 2001 - or worse.

APS sources well informed about the nature and scope of the Taliban revival note that several of its leaders are operating openly out of the Pakistani cities of Peshawar, Quetta and Karachi, as well as from more remote areas in the federally and provincially administered tribal areas. These leaders are occasionally addressing public gatherings, sometimes attended by leading local and federal Pakistani government figures. It is well established both by Western media reports and by frustrated comments from American commanders of soldiers deployed in the area that Pakistani frontier forces, posted on the Afghan-Pakistan border to guard against infiltration and exfiltration, are often in fact assisting this process by providing covering fire to keep US forces pinned down in their military posts and firebases across the border.

The sources say that more often, the collaboration is passive, i.e. the frontier forces simply allow the Taliban to go about their offensive actions against US and the Kabul government troops without intervening. Tip-offs have also been provided to key Al Qaida leaders about imminent raids by US forces, including timing information that could not have been known to anyone outside a small circle of American and Pakistani security officials. It is also clear that the creeping re-Talibanisation of Afghanistan is being met by increasing American incursions into Pakistani territory - especially by the US Air Force, which sends across intelligence gathering Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, as well as jet fighters on occasional strafing and bombing missions. These are still not a routine feature of the developing military scenario on the Afghanistan-Pakistan frontier area, but the expansion of the war from Afghanistan into Pakistan is a distinct possibility over the coming months.

The immediate neighbours of Afghanistan and others influencing developments there - Pakistan, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia and India in particular - are watching to see how the US deals with the emerging situation, while in the meantime taking the steps they think may be necessary to deal with the implications. In view of the conflicting interests among these countries, these steps may in themselves become the recipe for another explosion of violence in Afghanistan - which will be very difficult for the US to manage, separately from its ongoing difficulties in Iraq.

On the ground, the situation is becoming increasingly hostile to the US, with pro-Western President Hamid Karzai basically limited to control of Kabul and its immediate environment. Washington is depending on a number of established warlords and local leaders in the provinces to keep a degree of stability. These figures will switch sides the moment they feel that there is a weakening of resolve in Washington, and they will also be looking to developments in Iraq to make their assessments. While the casualty rate in Afghanistan and the nature of combat are not as well-profiled in the Western media, American lives are being lost with steady regularity in the country. Unlike in Iraq, the nature of opposition to the US is clear and the way in which the Taliban are orchestrating their attacks and surviving is also clear.

According to the sources, one key aspect of the Afghan trap is based on American behaviour and their understanding of the psychology of the Pashtuns, who are the majority ethnic group in Afghanistan. They say there is an "apparent uncertainty within the Bush administration" which is encouraging the Taliban and its Al Qaida partners to step up their offensive operations. This uncertainty is being reflected in Washington's efforts, in agreement with the Karzai government, to work with what are regarded as "moderate" Taliban elements. The most prominent among these is former Taliban foreign minister, Mullah Wakeel Ahmad Mutawakkil. A former inmate of the Guantanamo base prison facility in Cuba, which holds all detainees linked to 9/11, Mutawakkil is now living in Kandahar, which used to be the headquarters of Taliban chief Mullah Mohammed Omar. He was recently visited by US Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage. The American side perceives such moves as being conciliatory, aimed at eliminating suspicions among the Pashtuns that the new leadership in Afghanistan has sacrificed Pashtun interests at the expense of the Tajiks and Uzbeks who formed the bulk of the Northern Alliance which captured Kabul alongside US special forces in November 2001. Although Karzai is himself an aristocratic Popolzai Pashtun, key posts such as the defence and foreign ministries are held by the Tajiks.

What the Americans see as conciliatory, however, is seen by the Taliban and Al Qaida leaders as a sign of weakness, and a readiness to compromise. This, too, is a misperception. Yet based on such misperceptions on both sides, the trap can become very dangerous. The sources point out that the next surprise from this trap could go beyond 9/11. A confidential UN expert panel report disclosed by the Associated Press on Nov. 15 says: "The risk of Al Qaida acquiring and using weapons of mass destruction also continues to grow... Undoubtedly Al Qaida is still considering the use of chemical or bio-weapons to perpetrate its terrorist actions". It adds that the only thing holding Al Qaida back from using chemical and biological weapons "is the technical complexity to operate them properly and effectively". The expert panel was constituted in January 2003 by the UN Security Council to monitor implementation of sanctions against 272 individuals and entities linked to Al Qaida and the Taliban.

The sources point out that the US, for the time being at least, appears be taking the carrot and stick approach simultaneously. Strong personal warnings have been delivered to high-ranking Pakistani officials by US Ambassador to Islamabad, Nancy Powell, as well as by Armitage and others. The Kabul government is also taking a harder line, which would not have happened without the co-ordination or blessing of Washington. In an interview published in the German magazine Der Spiegel on Nov. 24, Karzai stated: "We cannot stop this terrorism as long as Pakistan doesn't cooperate. That is the key issue." He added that he had told Pakistan President Gen. Pervez Musharraf "we shall only be able to defeat the imported terrorism if Pakistan helps -- there[acute accent]s no other way... I believe Pakistan could and should do more against terrorism".

One way to limit the spread of the Taliban would be to expand the reach of the Kabul government deep into the provinces, both directly through the deployment of Afghan troops loyal to the government and indirectly by expanding the strength and presence of the International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) controlled by NATO mechanisms. But this does not seem likely in the foreseeable future, partly because the Bush administration's attention is diverted and because the capabilities needed would be immense. Currently, the 5,700 strong ISAF force in the country only has three helicopters, for instance. Lieutenant Colonel John Tibbetts, chief planner at the 24-nation ISAF's headquarters in Kabul was quoted on Nov. 18 as saying: "If the (NATO) alliance does not step up to the plate, in five years we will be back here fighting again because this place will go to hell".

In the meantime, strong American-backed efforts are underway to democratise the country and introduce relevant institutions. A constitution was agreed in recent weeks, and there are plans for a Loya Jirga (Grand Assembly) of Afghan leaders in December to work out the problems that will be faced in the democratisation process, as well as to discuss distribution of decision-making power between the various ethnic and sectarian groups. In June 2004, general elections are to be held in the country. There have already been warnings from think tanks that elections would be a catalyst for violence.

The sources agree, pointing out that the ground situation in the country is unlikely to improve by June 2004, since neither ISAF nor government troops are likely to be strong enough to check violence by then. Moreover, there are rumours that the US may be preparing to withdraw some its troops from Afghanistan ahead of presidential elections next year, perhaps even in the coming months, in order to reduce the criticisms about open-ended military deployment commitments in global hotspots. In such a scenario, the sources add, it is certain that some neighbouring countries will seek to strengthen their position in Afghanistan by strengthening the Taliban further, while others will move to reverse the process. The net result will be a return to the situation which prevailed in the mid-1990s, an environment that allowed Al Qaida to consolidate its presence in the country.