Afghanistan, again. (Essay).

The reconstruction of Afghanistan is not going as smoothly as the U.S. government had hoped. A little historical perspective suggests that there may be a long--and perhaps treacherous--road ahead.

In 1996, the Taliban seized control of an Afghanistan that was on the verge of social and ecological collapse. Seventeen years of civil war had left the population exhausted from continuous violence and torturous living conditions. Average life expectancy was 44 years. Health care was minimal. Food was scarce. Guerrilla resistance to the Soviets in the 1980s and factional fighting among local warlords in the early 1990s had left the countryside heavily cratered, landmined, and degraded.

As of late 2002, the picture in Afghanistan remains largely unchanged. The Taliban repression, U.S. bombing, and recent re-emergence of local warlords have perpetuated the violence but have done nothing to improve living conditions. Average life expectancy is 46 years. Health care is minimal. Food is scarce. And the continuing conflict has decimated what little infrastructure was left.

After 23 years of war, half of Afghanistan's urban housing stock is damaged, and about 1,700 of the country's 3,000 kilometers of roads need rebuilding. According to the United Nations, just one in four Afghans has access to safe water, one in ten has access to adequate sanitation, and only one in 20 has electricity. (Worldwide, more than four of every five people have clean water, more than three of five have adequate sanitation, and half of the people have reliable energy)

Despite the U.S. military's rout of the Taliban, violence and poverty continue to grip the country. Warlords continue to fight for control of the Afghan countryside, creating major security problems and threatening the legitimacy of U.S.-backed president Hamid Karzai. The United Nations has expressed fear that without serious assistance, Afghanistan risks falling back into political chaos. Moreover, aid organizations stress that the country faces a continuing humanitarian crisis as a result of prolonged drought having depleted the food supply.

Before war broke out in 1978, Afghanistan produced enough food to feed itself--in fact, the country was known in the region for its excellent fruit. By 1990, war and neglect had destroyed 70 percent of the country's farmland. Despite the loss, the remaining 30 percent accounted for more than half of Afghanistan's gross domestic product, and provided livelihoods for about 70 percent of the population.

In the past two years, further destruction of the country's irrigation systems, along with the drought, has caused grain production to fall by an additional 50 percent. As a result, nine million Afghans--a third of the country's population--now rely on the World Food Program for their daily sustenance. As of June, program officials were working to raise an additional $100 million to continue providing food at the same level through the coming winter.

As a result of prolonged food shortages, half of Afghan children are malnourished, and half of the adults exhibit iodinc deficiency, which leads to retardation if left untreated. More than 30,000 people are dying each year from tuberculosis. Epidemics of cholera and acute diarrhea are common--16,000 people in Kabul were affected by an outbreak this summer. The World Health Organization estimates infant mortality to be 157 per 1,000 live births, and one in four Afghan children die before the age of five. (In neighboring Uzbekistan, infant mortality is 44 per 1000, and about one in 20 children die before the age of five.) Perhaps even more shocking, though not necessarily surprising, is the finding of a recent study that 60 percent of Afghans suffer from mental disorders. High rates of post-traumatic stress syndrome and depression, resulting from years of war-related strain, give the country one of the highest rates of mental illness in the world.

Women face disproportionate health risks due to complications of pregnancy and childbirth. According to Dr. Peter Salama, the head of health and nutrition for UNICEF, maternal mortality in Afghanistan is probably around 1,700 per 100,000. (The rate in the United States is 7 to 8 per 100,000.) Part of the problem is that medical care is scarce. Only one trained gynecologist practices in all of southern Afghanistan, and he is often unable to treat his patients. Many husbands subscribing to age-old Islamic traditions would rather see their wives die than have a male doctor treat them.

Women had few rights under the Taliban, but their situation does not seem to be improving much with the Taliban gone. Despite having a female candidate in the three-way presidential race and 200 women at the traditional Afghan tribal council that appointed the president in early 2002, women still face major obstacles. Police enforcing the Taliban's extreme form of gender-biased Islamic law still patrol many areas of the country. Women are jailed and punished for refusing to marry men they were promised to at birth. Desperate families are selling girls as young as seven into marriage. And the number of rapes and other sexual assaults has increased with the resumption of ethnic and factional fighting.

Refugees and internally displaced persons further tax the country's limited resources. By July, an estimated 1.3 million refugees had returned to the country from nearby Iran and Pakistan--already exceeding the UN's forecast for the entire year. Aid agencies are unable to keep pace with the high number of returnees, and many families are coming back to their villages and towns with meager economic prospects.

Returning refugees needing shelter and fuel also compound the plight of Afghanistan's forests. War and drought, as well as the Taliban regime (which sold large amounts of wood to Pakistan) have destroyed approximately 30 percent of Afghanistan's forests--now estimated to cover less than 2 percent of the country, according to the UN Environment Programme. Decreased tree cover has worsened erosion, and dust storms are now common on the barren landscape, darkening the sky and contributing to bronchial disease. The remaining wildlife--including endangered snow leopards- that have survived severe habitat loss are now being hunted in growing numbers by people hoping to eke our a living selling valuable skins and other animal parts.

Landmines and other unexploded ordnance pose major threats both to the environment and to people, despite work underway to clear mines. Nearly 800 square kilometers of land is mined, with more discovered every year. In 1993, 20 to 24 people were killed each day by landmines and unexploded ordnance, according to the International Campaign to Ban Landmines. With the help of a coordinated dc-mining program, the number of casualties had dropped by 2000 to slightly less than three each day.

Another encouraging trend in Afghanistan is school enrollment. Within just a few months after the end of Taliban rule, which did not allow for the education of females, 30 percent of Afghan primary and secondary school students were girls. A survey now underway by the United Nations and the Afghan Ministry of Education estimates that a total of 3 million children are now enrolled in schools, a number substantially higher than the pre-study estimate of 1.8 million. The UN Children's Fund and other aid agencies are struggling to acquire books, supplies, rooms, and an estimated 10,000 teachers by next year.

Afghanistan's 16 universities enrolled 16,400 students this year and expect 26,000 students next year. At Kabul University, some 20 to 25 percent of the 4,000 students are women. Only 32 of the university's 300 teachers have PhDs, however, and the school is having great difficulty attracting new professors. Sharif Fayez, Afghanistan's minister of higher education, worries that there will not be enough qualified primary and secondary school teachers if foreign donors continue to overlook higher education--which aid programs often view as a luxury--but which is critical for the preparation of teachers. Also of concern is the education of Afghanistan's future professionals--young businessmen, doctors, and others who will be charged with rebuilding the country's infrastructure and economy.

Aid efforts throughout the country are in drastic need of funding, and much of the pledged aid has not yet materialized. In July, the United Nations and associated non-governmental organizations said they needed an additional $400 million to continue their current aid and development work for the quarter alone. In Kabul, the nascent Afghan government faces a severe funding crisis as it struggles to find its footing. Donor countries promised $4.5 billion for the government over the next 5 years, but the United Nations and the Afghan government report that as of July, only $500 million of the $1.8 billion due this year has been delivered.

Without government funding to enforce security measures, maintaining order as the strength of local warlords increases becomes more difficult. In Kabul, a vice president was assassinated within weeks of taking office, and other officials are repeatedly threatened. In outlying areas, ethnic minorities, refugees, and women are increasingly falling victim to violence. Aid workers are also in danger: in recent months, gunmen attacked a clinic, snipers shot at a vehicle carrying food, and seven men gang-raped a female aid worker and assaulted the man accompanying her. Violence appears to be worsening over time, as perpetrators are neither caught nor punished.

Meanwhile, the United States continues to spend $2 billion a month on military operations in the war-battered country, resulting in numerous civilian deaths and further destruction of infrastructure. University of New Hampshire professor Marc Herold, who has gathered information from the international press and first hand accounts, estimates that U.S. military operations have killed as many as 3,500 civilians in Afghanistan--more people than were killed in the World Trade Center attacks. Moreover, the United States continues to support and enhance the strength of the local warlords, despite increasing violence, fighting, and human rights violations.

Afghanistan is at a crossroads. In Kabul, residents are reopening restaurants, rebuilding shops, and constructing new houses. The Kabul Times, outlawed by the Taliban, is being sold in the streets, and a British-owned mobile phone network is now in place. Fueled by money from the international aid community, the city is booming, with substantial job opportunities for savvy Afghans--along with skyrocketing rents.

In the rest of the country, though, conditions are almost as they have been for the last two decades. If the hopes of Afghans are encouraged by continued commitment and funding, their country may be able to emerge from crisis. But short-lived efforts and unfulfilled promises are unlikely to have the lasting impact required to make the country self-sufficient. A sustained commitment on the part of the international community has a chance to give Afghans the knowledge and tools they need to continue on their own--with a functioning government, basic security, and a stable economy. Without that commitment, the world risks losing Afghanistan--again.

Elizabeth Bast is a former intern at Worldwatch Institute.