Afghan Trouble Ahead.

A planned Pakistani-NATO offensive against al-Qaeda and the Taliban in the tribal areas on the border was delayed by the Feb. 18 elections and their aftermath. Now there is talk of a three-pronged offensive by the Taliban, al-Qaeda and Hekmatyar forces aimed at cutting off NATO's supply lines running from Pakistan to Afghanistan, recruiting fresh volunteers and the creation of a strategic corridor from Pakistan to Kabul. Since being ousted in late 2001 and waging annual spring offensives, this is the first time that the Taliban-led coalition has come up with the idea of creating such a corridor.

The Taliban and their allies have established pockets of insurgency around Kabul, in addition to more settled pockets across the country. They move freely in the eastern province of Wardak, just 30 km from Kabul. But now they want to ensure a quick supply of arms and men to reinforce the pockets sufficiently for attacks on the capital.

It is said the corridor initially starts in Mohmand and Bajaur Agencies in Pakistan and then passes through Kunar and Nooristan provinces, all the way to the Taghab Valley in Kapisa province in the north-east about 100 km from Kabul. In 2006, the Taliban seized the strategic Taghab Valley - as well as the Musayab Valley to the south of Kabul - with the goal of an assault on the capital. But because of limited supply lines they were only able to maintain their positions for a few months. This year, the aim of the Taliban-led alliance is to retake these positions, while having in place secure supply lines starting in the Pakistani tribal areas to maintain a steady stream of men and resources.

Over the past year, the Taliban-led alliance has increased the number of its fighters in Mohmand to 18,000 and to between 20,000 to 25,000 in Bajaur. Taliban quarters are said to believe this will provide sufficient strength to ensure the operation, which is to run from April to September.

This gathering of forces in the two agencies did not go unnoticed by NATO. So, before the Feb. 18 elections the NATO plan was to depend on Pakistani assistance to increase military operations aimed at nipping the corridor idea in the bud. US special ground troops had escalated their activities in Kunar and Nooristan and a US base in Kunar, just 3 km from Bajaur, had become fully operational. It was planned that, once the operations were in full swing, Pakistan was to provide assistance through its air base in Peshawar for attacks on militant bases in the agencies.

However, the Feb. 18 elections and their aftermath in Pakistan caused the US/NATO planners to change course, according to an APS source in Peshawar, and a new plan is yet to emerge from the Afghan side of the border. The source says important elements of the new plan will depend on the outcome of US talks with the new PPP-led government in Islamabad.