Addressing Arab Concerns on Iran Key to Success of US Strategy.

Byline: Joyce Karam

US Special Advisor Dennis Ross' trip this week to the Gulf and Egypt aims to ease concerns over Iran's nuclear program and its growing regional ambitions.

Ross, who took off to Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Oman, Bahrain, Qatar, and Egypt earlier this week accompanied by NSC Senior Director Puneet Talwar and CENTCOM Deputy Commander Lieutenant General John R. Allen, will be met by "great deal of concern" over Iran's nuclear and foreign policy agendas, and the US readiness to engage the Islamic Republic according to Patrick Clawson, deputy director for research at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Clawson, a longtime expert on Iran and Gulf issues, states that there is "lot of worry from the Egyptians and other countries in the region that the US will be focused (in its engagement with Iran) on the nuclear issue and it won't tackle Iran's destabilizing role in the region". He also mentions "regional fears of the Obama administration cutting a deal with Iran, in a way that gives Tehran an increasing regional stature in return for a compromise on the nuclear program."

The President of Egypt Husni Mubarak, expected to visit Washington in few weeks, warned on Wednesday Cairo's "regional adversaries" that he would not "tolerate their tampering his country's security and stability", a reference to Iran that comes after the Egyptian authorities uncovered a cell for Hizballah operating from Egypt earlier this month. King Abdullah II of Jordan and Foreign Minister of Saudi Arabia Prince Saud Al-Faisal were as clear on several occasions in pointing out to the Iranian "meddling" in "Arab affairs" mainly in Iraq, Lebanon, and the Palestinian territories.

Clawson, a former colleague of Ross at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy, describes Obama's point person on Iran as "a very good listener" and someone who can work really hard in addressing the concerns of Arab officials during their meetings. US Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs William Burns went out of his way in calming Arab fears this Monday in his address to a US-Saudi Relations policy forum hosted by the New America foundation and the Committee for International Trade. Burns, who will be conducting the negotiations with the Iranian representative at the next P5+1 meeting, laid out the pillars of the Obama administration strategy on that issue. The bigger framework as he put it, targets "a worldwide reduction of nuclear arsenal and seeks to prevent emergence of any new nuclear armed states".

Burns pointed out twice in his speech that the US "shares the concern of others that Iran pursues a destabilizing role in the region and beyond", adding "we believe the best way to address this danger is through a diplomatic solution to the range of serious challenges posed by Iran." He stressed on the two sets of issues outstanding with Tehran, saying that Washington will work with its regional partners to "ensure that Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons capacity or become a regional hegemon."

Clawson describes the Obama Administration strategy towards Iran as "cautious", saying that while there is a "change in tone and message" from the Bush Administration, there "hasn't been a dramatic change in direction" especially when it comes to policy goals and the continued rejection of a "nuclear armed" Iran and working with the International Community to strengthen the sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Although Washington rejects the idea of a time table in its talks with Tehran, Clawson points out that if by the end of the year there was no progress in the direct talks, the US should explore more sanctions in order to gain "more leverage" in the negotiations. The endgame according to Clawson is as simple as "persuading the Iranians that their life can be uncomfortable if they don't reach an agreement with the US" or the better alternative that "their life can be comfortable if they reach one."

The measure of success for such an agreement, however, will be as Clawson emphasizes, in its ability to address concerns of the region and "not create other problems". He adds that "if the US reaches an agreement with Iran that upsets the rest of the region and triggers an arms race" that "will not be a useful agreement". Clawson concludes that "an important element for success of any agreement is if the US and its friends can live with it" and that's primarily will be Ross' task.

2009 Media Communications Group

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