Ad picture mixed as TV, radio get most from spending rise. (Inside the Books--Banking & Finance Special Report).

A prolonged media recession that has wracked print and broadcast outlets for almost two years shows some signs of easing, although there's little agreement on what's fueling the improvement or how long lasting it might be.

Much of the upturn is happening at radio and television stations, as demand for advertising has been going up in recent weeks and inventory is getting bought up more quickly. Activity on the print side -- for newspapers and magazines -- is moving more slowly, although national lifestyle oriented publications like Vanity Fair, Men's Health and GQ turned out especially fat September issues.

The improved ad picture is especially striking because it comes at a time when the U.S. economy shows little sign of growth -- so much so that some analysts see the possibility of another recession.

That's why media executives remain cautious about declaring an end to the media recession - especially among magazines and newspapers, where national advertising revenues remain weak.

"In tough times, advertisers gravitate toward those media where they feel they get the biggest bang for the buck, which is television," said Jack Myers of the Jack Myers Report, a media industry newsletter.

Television

Things began to look up in June when the four major networks secured more ad dollars in the "upfront" market than ever before, beating the $7.1-billion record set in 2000. The 2.3 percent upswing in national ad spending during the first six months of the year provides the best indication to date that purse strings are loosening.

Sales at local stations for the coming months are pacing ahead of where they were this time last year, sources said. Automotive and entertainment are among the strongest categories. Political spending, normally a reliable revenue source during a major election year, hasn't lived up to most projections, although buys are likely to pick up in the next few weeks.

"The good news is the ad economy has seen an upswing," said one local television sales executive. "For how long? We don't know but it's definitely across the board at the moment."

The post-Sept. 11 slowdown and other factors made last year especially tough for L.A. stations, which suffered a 15.2-percent drop in revenues, according to media consultant BIA Financial Network Inc. Stations nationwide averaged a 12.9-percent decline.

L.A. stations saw a slight boost in ad revenues during the first half of 2002 but the increase was due mainly to a large but limited infusion of dollars generated by the Winter Olympics in February. While that benefited KNBC-TV (Channel 4), other media outlets lost out as advertisers held back on spending against the highly watched event.

Program adjustments have provided good news for some stations and bad news for others. KTLA-TV (Channel 5) has been hurt by the loss of Dodger game broadcasts, which this season switched to KCOP-TV (Channel 13), now owned by News Corp. The move offset television revenues for Chicago-based Tribune Co., owner of KTLA and the Los Angeles Times. The station will have a chance to make up the loss later this year when it begins broadcasting L.A. Clippers games.

It's too early to tell how the four local duopolies will fare with advertisers. Owning two TV stations in the same market might give media companies a leg up on the competition, but advertisers could end up spending less on a pair than they might on individual stations.

"When it comes to putting the packages together, what we found a lot of times is they're bastardizing one (station) to bring in the other," said one local TV executive. "The weak one doesn't necessarily benefit from being around a strong one."

Radio

The turnaround appears to be happening quicker at L.A.'s radio stations - not surprising given that radio is more affordable than television and bookings don't need to be placed as far in advance.

Local radio ad bookings for the fall show double-digit increases compared with the like year-earlier period, sources said. Advertisers aren't waiting as long to buy spots and commercial time is becoming scarce.

"When the buying community starts telling you how tight it is, you know there's been a turnaround," said Mary Beth Garber, president of the Southern California Broadcasters Association.

Whereas advertisers had been waiting until the last minute to buy spots earlier this year, they are now booking several weeks ahead of time.

Clear Channel Communications Inc. expects third-quarter revenues at its eight local radio stations to increase between 10 percent and 12 percent, said Charlie Rahilly, co-vice president of the L.A. area region. Infinity Broadcasting Corp.'s seven-station cluster is also expecting a jump in spending.

"The economy is a little better here in Los Angeles and, also, we're pacing against the damage that was done to the market after 9/11," said Pat Duffy, vice president and general manager of Infinity-owned oldies station KRTH-FM (101.1). "It looks really positive for the radio in the back half of the year."

Print

Newspapers and magazines are having a tougher time. Publications took a major hit in national advertising as a result of the recession and Sept. 11. Advertisers looking to reach more people with fewer dollars are likely to concentrate their spending on radio and television.

The L.A. Times saw its volume of full-run ads fall 7 percent in the first two quarters of the year, compared with the like period in 2001. Part-run ads and pre-print pieces were up 11 percent and 10 percent, respectively.

Local newspapers, such as the Los Angeles Daily News and its sister publications, including the Long Beach Press-Telegram and the Pasadena Star-News, stand a better chance at recovery than the large, metropolitan dailies because they are less dependent on national advertising. Media researcher CMR projects ad spending will be down 1.7 percent for national newspapers this year but up 5.7 percent for local papers.

Meanwhile, magazines are losing the battle to keep ad pages up. At Los Angeles magazine, ad pages are down 3 percent through the October issue, according to publisher Alan Klein. "What we're seeing is a roller-coaster. Some months are really good and some months are not so good," he said. "Things are definitely looking better in the fourth quarter."