Academics Explore Tomorrow's Cuba.

FIDEL CASTRO'S AGE HAS INCREASED questions about who will succeed him in Cuba when the longest-ruling leader of modern times dies or loses his mental faculties. The questioners come from many corners of the world in the deteriorating streets of Havana, where you can still see U.S. model cars from the 1950s; in the cafes on Calle Ocho in Miami, the center of Cuban emigration to the United States; in government buildings throughout Europe and the Americas; and in the boardrooms of multinational corporations. The questions come in different languages and at differing levels of education and of passion. But they have something in common: They all become shipwrecked in a sea of doubts.

Aiming to explore that stormy sea, The Americas Society brought together academics who have spent years studying the island's socialist experiment. Their conclusions form the backbone of Cuba: The Contours of Change. The book is a snapshot of what has happened on the island since the disintegration of its fairy godmother, the Soviet Union, and the socialist bloc of sister countries that offered subsidies and profitable trade, predominantly for sugar, Cuba's historic main export. Above all, it attempts to peer into the future, offering a plausible vision of what maybe around the corner.

Or, several visions. The authors differ markedly in a number of areas, such as whether or not to lift the U.S. embargo. David Rothkopf, for example, offers the astute observation that despite its so-called democratic scruples, the United States hasn't opted to sever ties--diplomatic, commercial or cultural--with a number of non-democratic countries.

According to Rothkopf, normalizing relations with Washington could, in fact, accelerate reform on the island. And if it didn't, it would still certainly alleviate some of the population's economic hardship. That could conceivably protect U.S. interests, skirting for example another exodus like the 1980 Mariel boatlift or the 1994 influx of Cuban rafters.

Susan Kaufman Purcell, meanwhile, supports the embargo as a catalyst for change, pointing out that normal relations with much of Western Europe as well as Latin America haven't softened the totalitarian character of the Castro regime.

Forced reforms. Those differences notwithstanding, the authors note that transcendental changes have occurred in Cuba since the fall of the socialist bloc: limited permission for a nascent private sector to participate in the economy, an opening (also restricted) to foreign investment and, above all, the dollarization of the economy. Some of the authors believe Castro has been obligated to institute certain changes to survive the end of subsidies from Moscow, and that he will revert back to the old ways when conditions permit. If more foreign capital hasn't found its way into Cuba, it isn't due to the U.S. embargo but, rather, to the Cuban government's own restrictions on foreign investment. Other contributors, on the contrary, bank on foreign capital as the impetus for reform.

A myth dismissed by this book has to do with the island's work force, a product of the government's generous investment in education. Although many foreign observers attest that the average level of education among Cubans is higher than in much of Latin America, that doesn't necessarily translate into a high level of productivity. This book picks up the opinion of Irving Louis Horowitz, who ingeniously pointed out that in Cuba "a creative and innovative people capable of repairing and modifying just about any artifact does exist. A people schooled in a computer environment with sound work habits does not exist."

The optimistic view of a quick economic recovery in post-Castro Cuba is clouded by the problems of transitioning to a market economy after four decades of government control. According to the majority of the authors, the most urgent factors include retraining the work force, improving infrastructure and maintaining a social security network. (In Cuba, health care and education are free.) Even though Cuba has marked some progress in biochemistry and pharmaceuticals, the book stresses that, in general, the country hasn't really diversified its production.

For that reason, Cuba's conversion to a market economy would rest on traditional pillars: sugar, tobacco and tourism, possibly with heaviest emphasis on the latter. If we remember that Cuba was a tourist mecca in the Caribbean when Castro launched his revolution in the Sierra Maestra, it's obvious that, if nothing else, the island's future won't lack for irony.

Cuba: The Contours of Change Edited by Susan Kaufman Purcell and David Rothkopf

The Americas Society * US$13.95

Excerpt from Cuba

"One thing is certain: the future will draw Cuba and the United States closer together. By prioritizing tourism as the growth sector of the new Cuban economy, even Fidel Castro implicitly acknowledges that reconciliation with the United States--the source of most Caribbean tourists--is inevitable."