Abdullah's Arab-Israel Peace Plan Can Work; Beirut Summit Will Decide:.

** Prince Abdullah's Plan May Be Overtaken By Events As Tit-For-Tat Killings Between Palestinians & Israelis Looks Set To Spiral Out Of Control

** Some Critics Suspect The Saudi Initiative Is Little More Than A Move Aimed At Improving The Kingdom's Image In The US, Which Is Already Being Repaired With The Help Of A $7 Million PR Campaign

** Iraq Resumes Talks With The UN Despite US Opposition

NICOSIA - Well informed APS sources say that, despite the rapidly deteriorating political environment between Israel and the Palestinians, there is a window of opportunity for the peace idea put forward by Saudi Crown Prince Abdullah Ibn Abdel Aziz through the American columnist Thomas Friedman. The sources add that Saudi diplomats are discreetly canvassing support for the idea throughout the Middle East, ahead of the planned Arab League heads of state summit in Beirut on March 25-26. They note that major Arab governments have supported the proposal "in principle", but the key to making it a viable mechanism to pursue peace with Israel would depend on Arab positions taken behind closed doors at the Beirut gathering.

The peace proposal of Prince Abdullah, put forward in an interview given to Friedman and printed in 'The New York Times' of Feb. 17, has at its core the basic principle of "land for peace". Abdullah indicated he was ready for "full normalisation of relations" with Israel, "in return for full withdrawal from all the occupied territories, in accord with UN resolutions, including in Jerusalem". This is something the kingdom had never offered before, at least in such language.

In addition, the sources point out, the proposal goes beyond the simple "land for peace" concept in the sense that Abdullah offered "normalisation of relations", which goes beyond just "peace". The latter merely implies the Arabs would cease to regard themselves as being in a state of war with Israel, the sources say, whereas "normalisation of relations" emphasises in a stronger way Arab acceptance of the legitimacy of Israel and its right to exist.

After a somewhat cautious response initially, the Bush administration has embraced the proposal as an important step forward. US Secretary of State Colin Powell, who at first described it as being a "minor development", soon changed his mind and started calling it an "important" one. The EU has put its weight behind the plan, and its foreign policy chief Javier Solana has been meeting various regional leaders for discussions on the subject. On the Israeli side the response was welcoming, with President Moshe Katzav offering to visit Saudi Arabia to discuss the idea further. This notion was quashed by Riyadh, with 'Al Watan' newspaper saying such meetings could not be considered until there was a comprehensive settlement.

The sources say US officials continue to see Abdullah's initiative as a "vision" rather than a "plan"; a vision is seen only as a general outline of what could be created, while a plan is a program for implementation. They add that Washington is looking to the Arab Summit to turn the vision into a plan before the Bush administration can move from verbal support to a formal diplomatic process to assist implementation of the proposal.

The sources highlight the importance of Abdullah's proposal through the following points: (1) with this gesture, Saudi Arabia has muscled into the peace discourse in a public way, abandoning its preference hitherto for backstage diplomacy; (2) Riyadh has subtly reminded all the players involved, including Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon, that a final deal with Israel cannot be achieved through military might or suicide bombings; (3) the kingdom has created a momentum through the proposal, which it can back through financial clout on the one hand and geo-political weight on the other; and (4) Abdullah has sent a message to the other key players in the Arab World about Saudi willingness to compromise with Israel, something which they cannot overlook if they take a harder line, especially if they are recipients of economic assistance.

For the proposal to develop into a real mechanism for peace, it will have to be fully legitimised through a pan-Arab consensus. This is what Saudi diplomats are working for, ahead of the summit. Speaking on Feb. 24, senior Saudi foreign policy advisor Adel Al Jubeir, said: "The importance of it (Abdullah's proposal) is that it sends a signal to the Israeli public by telling them that peace with the broader Arab world is possible should they make peace with their neighbours".

Arab consensus will not be easy to reach, the sources point out. Libyan leader Moammar Qadhafi has rejected the initiative, calling it "cheap bargaining" and threatened to quit the Arab League. But the sources say this is mere posturing, and is likely to be ignored by Riyadh and other key players. Senior Palestinian negotiator Saeb Erekat has called it the best Arab peace plan since the 1991 Madrid peace conference and Jordan has also supported the proposal.

The sources note, however, that although key countries like Egypt and Syria have supported the Saudi initiative, there are hidden concerns as both countries - which regard themselves as key players in the Middle East peace process - would not want to see Riyadh "taking the lead" in reviving the process. Neither Cairo nor Damascus will go public with their concerns, the sources say, which is why the negotiations ahead of and at the summit will be crucial. They add that both Syria and Egypt want to avoid creating a bad atmosphere in the weeks leading up to the Beirut summit. But they are well aware that Abdullah's initiative is one they did not control, that does not specifically mention them, and that has generated an independent momentum that both may be compelled to go along with. Yet neither can afford to directly antagonise Riyadh on this issue.

Syrian President Bashar Al Assad discussed the peace initiative during a March 5 visit to Jeddah for talks with Abdullah. Bashar's visit to Jeddah followed an historic March 3 trip to Beirut, as the first Syrian leader to visit the city since 1947. Saudi officials were subsequently quoted as saying that Assad had had positive and successful talks in Jeddah. Syrian concerns focus around the finer points, which are what have remained the main obstacles to peace. Both Syria and Lebanon, for example, want to ensure that any peace plan would include the right of Palestinian refugees to return to their land - an issue not addressed in Abdullah's initiative.

There will be other practical obstacles to the Saudi initiative. In his Feb. 24 comments, Al Jubeir had said any talks would have to take place without a ceasefire - one of Sharon's key conditions for peace talks with the Palestinians. Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres welcomed the plan as "new, interesting and fascinating", but Israeli Cabinet Secretary Gideon Saar has noted: "It must be said that we're speaking of a positive trend... (but) this does not mean that we agree to the demand for a return to the 1967 borders - it's clear that we won't agree to this".

The question of Jerusalem and return of refugees has been a dealbreaker since the negotiations began in October 1991. There is no clear indication of how the Saudi initiative can get around these issues. If the Arab summit insists on the right of return, which if implemented would mean the end of Israel as a Jewish state, it is certain that the proposal will collapse. Similarly, if the Israelis insist on keeping parts of East Jerusalem, there is little chance the Arab side will agree. And it remains to be seen whether Premier Sharon, who has rejected even the Barak proposal of January 2001, will be prepared to make the concessions which Prince Abdullah's initiative demands.

Yet the prospect of a real pan-Arab peace initiative emerging from the summit has given the gathering a relevance that most observers had not expected. Indeed, it was anticipated that the summit would simply be "another talking shop" with the standard criticisms of Israel, verbal support for the Palestinians, and the usual exposure of inter-Arab rivalries. The Saudi initiative, if accepted, could turn the Beirut summit into the most important one in recent decades.