AZERBAIJAN - The Azeri Political Prospects.

Azerbaijan is ruled by an authoritarian regime under young Ilham Aliyev, who was elected president on Oct. 15, 2003, while his father was terminally ill. His father, Heidar Aliyev, died in late 2003, after dominating Azeri politics for three decades. The prospects for this country will depend on whether or not the new Aliyev regime adopts reforms the Western powers have been demanding. So far, the new regime's record is not encouraging.

President Aliyev says strengthening the Azeri economy and energy security are his priorities. Speaking on June 30 at a meeting with the public leaders of Zardab District, in the central part of Azerbaijan, he stressed that really independent are only those state which base their development on internal resources. He said: "Azerbaijan is not materially dependent on any country whatsoever and, therefore, will contribute also to the prompt commissioning of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan crude oil pipeline". Describing it as a historical event, Aliyev said the $4 bn pipeline was "bound to influence the world processes in the foreseeable future". He stressed the need of improving the living standards of the population, saying the government was constantly increasing their salaries and other social allowances, was promoting private business, and had for the first time ever allocated $100m for these purposes in 2006 - thereby providing 400,000 new jobs. Aliyev had promised in his 2003 election programme to provide 600,000 jobs within five years.

Aliyev then was on a two-day trip to the central districts. He was familiarising himself with the implementation of the state's regional development programme and attended the opening of several social institutions in the Udzhar and Zardob districts of the country.

According to international financial institutions, Azerbaijan will earn $140 bn only from oil for 20 years. "Azerbaijan will take advantage of these opportunities to strengthen the army, so that any moment it could win our occupied lands back. I have no doubt about that and hope that our policy will lead to this", said President Aliyev at the graduation ceremony at the Heydar Aliyev High Military School. Aliyev said Armenia got nothing by temporising. "Azerbaijan will never put up with separation of Nagorno-Karabakh...and will restore its territorial integrity by either peaceful or military means" (see DT No. 3).