AUTUMN'S REIGN BEGINS FALL ARRIVES IN EARNEST WITH SHOWERS EXPECTED.

Byline: Orith Goldberg Staff Writer

As a cold front brings the crisp feel of autumn, the first storm of the season was expected to drop about a quarter of an inch of rain on the Southland today, clearing just in time for Halloween.

The storm is nearly a month behind for the typical year, forecasters said Monday. At this point last year, the area already had nearly an inch of rain on its way to an above-average rain year, and that has forecasters puzzled about this season.

``Wetter, drier or near average, (forecasters) basically don't know with regard to precipitation,'' said Kelly Redmond, a regional climatologist at the Western Regional Climate Center at the Desert Research Institute in Reno.

Today, Los Angeles should get the first measurable rainfall since April 1, forecasters said. Temperatures are expected to be in the high 60s as a low-pressure system from the Gulf of Alaska pushes its way from the north toward the area.

Today's storm will hit in the late afternoon or early evening and ``probably be a six-hour event ... nothing dramatic,'' said Bonnie Bartling, a National Weather Service weather specialist.

Forecasters expect about a quarter of an inch of rain in the Los Angeles area and about half an inch at higher elevations and further north in Santa Barbara and San Luis Obispo counties. Halloween is expected to be dry with highs in the 60s. Temperatures will rise slightly the rest of the week.

What the rest of the season will bring is anyone's guess.

Redmond said there are still some signs that a weak El Nino system - which would mean a more severe winter - could develop this year, but that would be unusual and most forecasters don't think it will happen.

Dan Cayan, a researcher for the Climate Research Division of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography in La Jolla and the U.S. Geological Survey, surmised that Southern California will experience somewhat neutral conditions this winter.

``We're in the in-between state,'' Cayan said.

Los Angeles experienced a cooler-than-average summer and received 10 percent to 20 percent more rain than normal during the rain year, which is measured between July 1 and June 30. Still, forecasters are hesitant to predict with certainty how this winter will stack up against previous years.

Forecasters do acknowledge that after three years of mild, dry La Nina winters, there could be a slight possibility of wet, stormy El Nino rearing its head again this winter.

Cayan said he did not believe California would see a winter like the El Nino winters of 1982-83 and 1997-98.

``It's pretty clear that the very strong El Nino situation is not going to develop; it's too late,'' Cayan said. ``We haven't seen the (ocean) warming, and even if it takes hold, it will still be a minor case.''

Last year, the San Fernando Valley and surrounding regions saw increased rainfall as ``we just had a few major storms come in and sit over us,'' said Curt Kaplan, a meteorologist for the National Weather Service.

Kaplan said there is no indication of a particularly wet or dry winter season this year.

``Our wet season doesn't start until January,`` Kaplan said. ``November and December last year were completely dry.''

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5 photos

Photo: (1 -- 2 -- color) Against a background of brightly colored fall leaves, above, Karen Everett pulls her 4-year-old son, Taylor, along Wendy Drive in Newbury Park on Monday. Geese share the water at Westlake Lake with fallen autumn leaves, left.

(3 -- color) Fall colors blaze up, left, alongside Triunfo Canyon Road in Westlake Village on Monday. Although autumn officially arrived more than a month ago, it's only been in the past week or so that temperatures have dipped, sending leaves into their annual show of color.

(4 -- color) McKenna Friedman, 5, and Jordanna Witt, 5, feel the crunch of fallen leaves under their feet as they dash through Triunfo Canyon Park in Westlake Village on Monday.

(5 -- color) The Fontanas - and their gourd guests - are set for Halloween on Pickford Court in Newbury Park.

Tina Burch/Staff Photographer