AUTOIMMUNE MARKETS TO DOUBLE, TOP $13 MILLION BY 2000, LED BY ASTHMA, MS THERAPIES.

MOUNTAIN VIEW, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Paced by new treatments for multiple sclerosis (MS), asthma and arthritis, U.S. sales of autoimmune disease therapeutic products will more than double from $5 billion in 1993 to over $13 billion in the year 2000, growing at a 15 percent compound annual rate, projects a new study just released by Frost & Sullivan.

The share of market revenues going to asthma therapies will rise from 39 percent in 1993 to 46 percent in 2000 while the share going to rheumatoid arthritis dips from 41 to 30 percent in the same period and diabetes treatment dips slightly from 12 to 11 percent, forecasts the report, U.S. AUTOIMMUNE DISEASE MARKETS: DISEASE- MODIFYING COMPOUNDS HEADING TOWARD REGULATORY APPROVAL.

With emergence of promising new treatments for crippling multiple sclerosis, MS revenues will explode from non-existence in 1992 and 0.1 percent of the market in 1993 to a peak of 10 percent by 1995, after which more rapid growth of therapies for other diseases will bring the MS share back down to 5 percent by 2000, the study projects.

Significant advances are occuring in new treatments of rheumatoid arthritis and asthma as well while new medications for other autoimmune diseases appear at least five years away. Regulatory approval of Betaseron and Sandimmune in 1993 for multiple sclerosis and psoriasis, respectively, were the first two of the new generation of autoimmune therapies to reach the market, and will begin generating significant revenues in 1994. Betaseron alone is projected to generate over $500 million in annual revenues as a treatment for moderate, relapsed- remitting MS. Sandimmune will generate over $100 million annually as a therapy for severe recalcitrant psoriasis, and its manufacturer is filing for its approval for use against rheumatoid arthritis too.

Five other compounds have completed Phase III trials or had NDA's filed for regulatory approval. These are likely to hit the market by 1996 -- Sandimmune and Tenidap for rheumatoid arthritis, Zileuton for asthma, and beta interferon and Copolymer-1 for MS, the former which may actually for the first time halt progression of the disease -- with a revenue potential of over $1 billion. Competition in the MS market, which has been limited to one competitor, will reduce prices there.

After these five new therapies, approval of the next group of compounds currently in clinical trial is not expected until the end of the decade.

The NSAID, topical prescription corticosteroid, sulfasalazine and anticholinesterase markets are mature longstanding businesses that will continue to see slow growth through the decade. The asthma share of market revenues is growing largely due to increased incidence of the disease and increased use of multiple lines of treatment, which have boosted growth of current therapies. Asthma therapeutic (including bronchodilators, oral corticosteroids and cromolyn sodium) and insulin businesses have been growing fairly rapidly. Physicians are increasingly prescribing two or more different therapies for patients with severe asthma to deal with both short- and long-term problems of the disease.

While insulin has been in use for decades for treating diabetes, the market has grown steadily with the increasing number of persons suffering types I and II diabetes.

For these longstanding markets, the main competitive issue will be generic competition. Some companies have been successful in introducing their own generics and over-the-counter varieties after patent expirations and others are planning to do the same.

Frost & Sullivan is an international high-technology research firm. All Frost & Sullivan reports are based on extensive interviews with marketing and technical experts from selected companies in each market segment. Primary research is validated by thorough analysis of available secondary research. Frost & Sullivan is the leading publisher worldwide of high-technology research reports.

Report: 5222-52 Publication Date: 1994 Price:$2395

Total Autoimmune Disease Therapeutic Product Markets:

Revenue Forecasts (U.S.),

1990-20003-1 Total Autoimmune Disease Therapeutic Product Markets:

Revenue Forecasts (U.S.),

1990-2000gures

Revenue

RevenuesGrowth Rate

Year ($ Billion) (%)

1990 3.84 ---

1991 4.15 8.0

1992 4.40 6.2

1993 4.66 5.8

1994 5.21 11.8

1995 5.90 13.2

1996 6.57 11.4

1997 7.87 19.7

1998 9.19 16.7

1999 10.74 16.9

2000 12.16 13.2

Compound Annual Growth Rate (1993-2000): 14.7%

Note: All figures are rounded. Source: Frost & Sullivan

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