ARNOLD OR MCCLINTOCK? PROMINENT LOCAL REPUBLICANS BACK ACTOR.

Byline: Nicholas Grudin Staff Writer

SANTA CLARITA - In an election with 135 names on the ballot, the question in the recall is as much about who has a reasonable chance to win as it is about the candidates' qualifications.

Nowhere is that dichotomy more clear than within Santa Clarita's conservative machine, where the race between Republican front runners Arnold Schwarzenegger and state Sen. Tom McClintock has pitted political practicality against traditional GOP ideology.

``We all struggle with the same conflict,'' said Santa Clarita Mayor Cameron Smyth.

``McClintock has been a tremendous supporter of Santa Clarita and has done a lot for this community, but for me personally, it was that Mr. Schwarzenegger has the ability to appeal to a broader coalition of Californians, giving him the best opportunity to win.''

McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, has represented the northern Santa Clarita Valley for three years, and has found favor with the region's predominantly conservative communities.

He is a fiscal and social conservative who opposes gay marriage, opposes abortion and has shown strong support for President George W. Bush's environmental policies.

Schwarzenegger is also considered a fiscal conservative, but socially he is more to the left - he is pro-choice, a supporter of gay rights and has diverged from the GOP on environmental issues.

But despite McClintock's popularity as one of the valley's most conservative elected officials, prominent local Republicans have voiced support for Schwarzenegger and his relatively moderate platform.

``The reality that a lot of us must face is that the recall is not just to remove Gray Davis, but to elect somebody who will solve the problems,'' said Hunt Braly, a Santa Clarita lawyer who helped organize a recent fund- raising dinner for Schwarzenegger in Lancaster.

Braly has known McClintock for 20 years - he succeeded McClintock as chief of staff for state Sen. Ed Davis in 1983 - and although he has supported McClintock's campaign, he is voting for Schwarzenegger.

``Right now, it appears that Mr. Schwarzenegger is our best shot at capturing the governorship,'' Braly said.

Voting for the candidate who has the best chance to win, rather than the best platform, is not an unprecedented practice. And the consequences of ignoring the approach serve as further support for acting pragmatically during highly competitive elections.

Most memorably, in the 2000 presidential election, Al Gore's historically narrow loss to George W. Bush has been blamed on the marginal Democratic support for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader.

According to reports, the 97,000 votes that Nader garnered in Florida would have been more than enough to secure the presidency for Gore.

``There's no question that the same situation exists here,'' said Assemblyman Keith Richman, R-Granada Hills.

Richman was considering running against McClintock in the recall election before he heard that Schwarzenegger was entering the race.

``With both Schwarzenegger and McClintock in the race, the numbers just don't work,'' Richman said. ``If we're going to win this race, then the Republican Party is going to need to coalesce behind one candidate - it's a fact of numbers.''

But McClintock's camp claims that the initial wave of support for Arnold will not hold up, and that McClintock is indeed the candidate with the best shot at the governorship.

In a recent straw poll conducted by the Capitol Resource Institute at the California Republican Party convention in Los Angeles, McClintock received 49.5 percent and Schwarzenegger 48.4 percent.

And according to John Stoos, McClintock's deputy campaign director, recent polls conducted internally show that about half of Schwarzenegger's supporters would vote for McClintock in a vacuum.

``If you went out and said McClintock could win just as well, then half of his (Schwarzenegger's) will come to us,'' Stoos said.

With the potential postponement of the recall election, Stoos said that Schwarzenegger's support will continue to wane.

The latest Field Poll showed that Bustamante leads all candidates with 30 percent support, followed by Schwarzenegger at 25 percent and McClintock at 13 percent. Fifty-five percent of voters still favor the recall of Davis.

Despite the wide margin, McClintock's camp believes that he can close the gap with Schwarzenegger.

``As long as they say, Tom McClintock is the best candidate, but..., we think that in the next 2 1/2 weeks we'll take the 'but' away,'' Stoos said.

But political experts continue to note that McClintock will be the spoiler for the Republican Party.

``I think Arnold is the Republicans' only chance at the governor's mansion,'' said Susan Estrich, a Fox News analyst and a law professor at the University of Southern California.

``McClintock is a good Democrat's best friend.''

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