ARNOLD MAY BE DOWN, BUT HE'S NOT OUT.

Byline: EARL O. HUTCHINSON Local View

DEMOCRATS smell blood - Arnold's blood.

At their recent state convention in Los Angeles, the parade of Democratic would-be gubernatorial candidates taunted Gov. Schwarzenegger mercilessly. They blamed him for everything from dumping the poor and elderly on the streets to taking milk out of newborn babies' bottles.

The source of the vitriol is the polls. Democrats are emboldened by Schwarzenegger's recent nose dive in popularity. A recent poll by the Public Policy Institute of California, a San Francisco-based, nonpartisan political group, found that the governor's approval ratings have plunged more than 15 percentage points since January. Less than half of Californians say they approve of the job he's doing.

This ratings dive is directly tied to Schwarzenegger's stealth war with the state's public-employee unions and teachers associations. They have hounded and harassed him at every public stop he makes in and outside of California. They are furious over his proposals to scale back public- employee pensions and to slash education spending.

But the reports of Schwarzenegger's demise are premature.

The PPIC poll also found that a majority of voters agree with the bulk of Schwarzenegger's education reform proposals. He has called for linking teachers' pay to performance, and for raising teacher training standards. Voters also agree that taxes must not be hiked, and that state spending must be reined in. These are Schwarzenegger's political mantras.

Schwarzenegger has also raised millions to launch an advertising blitz to counter the unions' claims that his legislative program will lead to chaos. If he can spell out in plain terms what and how his education and spending reforms will improve the schools and put more dollars in taxpayers' pockets, he'll once again be hailed as the state's white knight.

Another Schwarzenegger trump card is voter dissatisfaction with the way the state is being run. That was the reason voters dumped former Gov. Gray Davis and put Arnold in office. They were mad at Davis and the Democrats for what they perceived as profligate tax-and-spend policies that drove the state to the brink of financial ruin.

The factors that helped Arnold get elected - his outsider status, his disconnect from partisan politics, his promise to back or devise a budget accountability law that will impose fiscal order on the state - all play just as big today. So does his repeated promise to severely restrict the amount of money that special-interest groups can shove into politicians' pockets.

Then there's the governor's commitment to redistricting, and ending the crooked system whereby Sacramento Democrats and Republicans ensure themselves perpetually ``safe'' districts. Schwarzenegger says he will storm the barricades to get open primaries and a fair redistricting plan. Doing so would almost certainly require a ballot initiative. It would be a vicious, ugly battle, but it's a battle that would instantly boost the governor's stock in the voters' eyes.

Schwarzenegger has also revamped Davis' hard-line stance on paroles, pledging to reverse the no-win lock'em-up-and-throw-away-the-key approach to crime reduction, and put more emphasis on rehabilitation. He has vowed to hold the line on state spending. These reform measures are in tune with the wishes of the majority of the state's voters.

But education may be his strongest suit yet. Schools remain the biggest sore point for Californians, who are angered and dismayed at the state of student performance. In the Institute's poll, voters said they regard education as their No. 1 priority. If Schwarzenegger can get even a marginal bump up in student performance levels, he'll be praised to the sky.

Voters want and demand sound legislation and public policy-making that's not dictated by special-interest groups. They're fed up with politics filtered through the narrow partisan prism. They want an end to the political bickering that has marred relations between Democrats and Republicans.

Voters put Schwarzenegger in Sacramento to accomplish all of these things. He has enough political firepower to make the case that he still can. He may be down, but he's not out.

Still, Schwarzenegger had better move fast before the next poll numbers roll in - and the grins on the Democrats' faces grow even wider.