ARNOLD'S ASCENDANCE WAS IT AN EARTHQUAKE OR SIMPLY A SHOCK?

Byline: Arnold Steinberg

WAS Arnold Schwarzenegger's election seismic?

Let's talk about what really happened.

Voter turnout was hardly a record. Sure, it was high for a special election. But it was barely average for a general election. Despite intense media coverage and high public interest, voting remained largely a spectator sport.

Is there, then, a mandate? And if so, for what?

A key lieutenant for Arnold put it this way: The outcome was preordained. Not really, of course. What he meant was that voters were inherently anti-Davis. They were predisposed to get the rascal out. So, the race was Arnold's to lose, and he didn't.

That's progress. After all, California Republicans are accident-prone. Indeed, many had worried that state Sen. Tom McClintock, R-Thousand Oaks, would split Republicans and blow it, electing Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante.

But what if McClintock had withdrawn? Democrats would have focused earlier on Arnold. He would not have had a free ride. Instead, Democrats miscalculated. They thought Bustamante would do better, and they expected McClintock to tarnish Arnold. But McClintock disengaged - he never confronted Arnold, even in the campaign's most-watched debate.

So, McClintock was the perfect foil for Arnold's perfect storm. And Arnold now would be crazy to condone a Republican primary challenge in March 2004 to McClintock.

In politics, then, the obvious is not always real. For example: Did this election validate moderate Republicans?

First, Arnold won with conservative legitimacy. Otherwise, he would now be looking at scripts for ``Terminator 4.'' In this short campaign, nearly all elected Republicans quickly endorsed him. The right-wing talk show hosts daily promoted him.

And pro-life conservatives accepted this rationale: That Arnold could not affect issues like abortion. In other words, why not vote for him? Oddly, the inverted rationale failed last year. If pro-life Bill Simon could not affect abortion, why then did pro-choice Republicans ostracize him in that general election?

Second, Arnold shifted, markedly conservative, to win. His positions, if not poll-driven, were hardly risky. Originally, he avoided issues by saying they were settled law. But then he abruptly switched. In particular, he pledged to repeal SB 60, the law that gives driver's license to illegal immigrants.

Similarly, Arnold previously seemed to support a broad view of gay rights, including gay adoption. On talk radio, he opposed same-sex marriage.

Arnold never talked pro-choice unless asked. And, suddenly, he opposed partial-birth abortions. For good measure, he also opposed abortions for girls without parental consent.

In this campaign, Arnold now championed the Second Amendment. Of course, the devil was in the details, but the fine print didn't matter. He used the right buzz words for conservatives.

And the bottom line is the new Arnold downplayed ``moderate'' issues. He ran as a conservative who praised Adam Smith and Milton Friedman. These are not exactly household names. The Hollywood libertine (did I mean, libertarian?) had morphed into an anti-tax populist of sorts.

Mix in the old-style religion of opposing tax-and-spend Democrats; add in charismatic persona and throw in optimism. As Dennis Prager, a favorite of many conservatives, observed, ``the happy candidate wins.''

Arnold makes people happy. He's enthusiastic, excited, fun. Still, fundamentally, this was an election to dump Gray Davis. The recall and Arnold became one and the same. That's why Arnold was destined to win.

Consider this paradox: Arnold did not win the debate. McClintock did. But Arnold did not make a fool of himself. He became eminently plausible. And, at the end, he was immune from late hits. That's because voters had settled on him as the anti-Davis.

But a mandate cannot be anti-Davis. After all, Davis is going, going, gone. What, then, is the pro-Arnold mandate, if it indeed exists?

People voted for Arnold because he seems larger than life. His vita suggests a determination and focus. People see a take-charge, can-do leader.

Or, as he put it, ``I'll kick butt in Sacramento.''

What does it mean that Arnold is so positive? Fantasy and reality merge. If voters believe an audit will resolve the fiscal crisis, well, maybe it will.

And that's what makes the Wizard of Oz. Like Reagan, Schwarzenegger is a great communicator. Can he keep the Reagan-like Teflon?

Arnold inspires confidence. He is a self-fulfilling prophecy. That's not bad. It's like a pundit telling you what a poll really says. Soon enough, the next poll says it.

This election, then, is a mandate for leadership, and for Arnold as a leader. Leading us to where? That remains to be seen.

But there is a flip side to even an undefined mandate - high expectations. When dozens of cameras cover someone, there's no place to hide. Arnold must fulfill those unrealistic expectations, or lower them.

That's no easy task. Arnold faces more than a mounting state deficit; he faces a lion's den. The other statewide elected officials are all Democrats who want his job in 2006. Bustamante (``I'm not going anywhere'') and Treasurer Phil Angelides (``There will be no honeymoon'') will sabotage Arnold. So will Attorney General Bill Lockyer and Insurance Commissioner John Garamendi, but they are smarter. They will at least pretend cooperation.

Besides, with nearly a two-thirds majority in the state Legislature, Democrats remain in the driver's seat.

So how does Mr. Universe become Mr. Sacramento? He goes over the politicians' heads in a way no other governor could. Arnold can beat them up in the media and in their hometowns.

But Arnold the chess player knows the end-game remains difficult. That's because most Democratic legislators cannot be defeated. A reapportionment scheme gave them safe districts.

This election provides Arnold with momentum. Can he build on it? He can go the initiative route, but unless the Legislature agrees to put his measures on the ballot, he will need voter signatures. Fortunately, Arnold has the ability to keep many balls in the air. He has that rare quality of combining single focus with multitasking. In English, that means he can spend all his time becoming a body-building champion, and still do other things.

Arnold can raise big money for his ballot initiatives. First, he must sell the electorate on long-term reform. In his transition news conference, he spoke of opening the books to an audit. But no matter what the audit shows, the initiative approach will postpone the day of reckoning until November 2004.

And what about that election? Does this recall, in the end, help President George W. Bush carry California?

The pre-recall alternative for Republicans was pretty good. An unpopular Gov. Gray Davis would have been a drag on Democrats next year. Davis would have been blamed for budget cuts and tax hikes. Now Republicans won't have Gray Davis to kick around anymore. Whether Arnold ultimately helps or hurts Bush depends on Arnold's popularity a year from now.

Finally, do these election results broaden the Republican Party?

First, consider the overall numbers. Schwarzenegger (49 percent) and McClintock (13 percent) combine to make for a solid majority (62% percent). Sure, Republican strength in part reflects the collapse of Bustamante, but the fact still remains that five in eight voters opted for an R- candidate.

The party is no longer an endangered species here.

Two-thirds of white voters went Republican, but the white share of the electorate will decline over time. That means Republicans ultimately must look toward future demographics. And there were inroads this time.

Democrat Bustamante was a Latino candidate. Moreover, Democrats played the race card. They especially emphasized Arnold's support of Proposition 187, which would have denied government benefits to illegal immigrants. Yet 41 percent of Latino voters went Republican. Among African-American voters, 26 percent went Republican.

That's not great, but it's progress.

What about Arnold's victory speech? On the stage, it looked like your father's Republican Party. What happened to the one in four Schwarzenegger voters who are not white?

I couldn't figure it out. Then, someone explained it. All these white folks were Democrats: Kennedys and Shrivers.

CAPTION(S):

drawing

Drawing:

(color) no caption (Governor-elect Arnold Schwarzenegger)

Jorge Irribarren/Staff Artist