ARABS-ISRAEL - Jan. 22 - Taba Talks.

Israeli and Palestinian negotiators step up talks in the Egyptian Red Sea resort of Taba. (The two teams, almost identical to those that drew up the 1993 Declaration of Principles, the first of the Oslo peace accords, recognise this could be last chance for a formal statement before Feb. 6, when Israelis go to the polls to elect Likud leader Sharon as PM or return Barak to power. Opinion polls have consistently put Sharon well ahead of the incumbent. Arafat has been brought back to the table because of a growing realisation that Sharon could win. No Palestinian negotiator is under the illusion that Sharon would match what Barak offered Arafat at last July's Camp David summit. There is also the view that the foreign policy priorities of the new US administration, led by George W. Bush, may be elsewhere. For these reasons, if the Taba talks continue, Arafat might conclude that a framework agreement, or at least some form of words, is in his interest. On Jan. 23 FT quoted an Israeli official as saying: "If Sharon wins, and with Bush ensconced in the White House, Arafat may need something on record as a basis for any future negotiations rather than starting from scratch all over again". Barak agreed to resume the talks in the belief that it might reduce the number of abstentions expected from Israeli Arabs and the left-wing. Barak has to show he is still interested in peace but in reality he cannot make any more concessions. It is a gamble for both sides, particularly since the main stumbling block to ending the conflict is the refugee issue). FM Ben-Ami, heading the Israeli negotiating team, says talks on resolving the Palestinian refugee problem "are being conducted on the basis of Israel's position that there will be no right of return to inside the state of Israel". The Palestinian side insists on upholding the principle of the right of return, but says it could consider Israel's concerns when trying to find a formula.