ARAB-EUROPEAN RELATIONS - July 12 - UK Forces 'Could Lead Iraq Withdrawal'.

The defence minister John Reid says UK forces can take the lead in a scaled reduction in coalition forces in Iraq as early as next year. But any withdrawal of British forces would be closely co-ordinated with the US and the Iraqi government, the diplomat suggested. The diplomat's remarks follow the leak last week of a UK defence document that laid out contingency plans for a cut in the 8,500 British troops in the country. John Reid, said the document was genuine, but that it did not represent policy. However, the document's projection that both US and UK troop strength could be cut by more than half by early 2006 was said by the western diplomat to be optimistic, but not unrealistic. The diplomat suggested that the handover to local Iraqi forces could take place sooner in southern Iraq, where British troops now control a relatively quiet, predominantly Shiite Arab zone, than in the north and west. "Given the stability of the southeast, it might be there first", the diplomat said. The leaked UK government memo outlined a proposed US troop reduction from 140,000 to 66,000 by one year from now, while British numbers would be scaled back from 8,500 to 3,000. It mentioned a full handover in at least part of the British zone by early next year. Nonetheless, Britain "wouldn't do this unilaterally". Washington and London must agree on any British withdrawal "in full consultation" as coalition partners, the western diplomat said, adding that the Iraqi government would also be closely involved. The proposed timeline assumed that "everything went right" with Iraq's constitutional referendum and next parliamentary elections, due before the end of this year. Withdrawal of multinational forces from any part of the country still hinges on security conditions rather than specific dates. The leaked British memo cited US planning assumptions that 14 of Iraq's 18 provinces "could be handed over to Iraqi control by early 2006". It also mentioned a more cautious outlook by multinational commanders on the ground, as opposed to a "bold reduction" approach by top-level US defence officials outside Iraq. Along with the political process, the proposed handover would depend on "the strength of Iraqi security forces and their ability to take over", the diplomat said. Iraq's PM Ibrahim al-Jaafari, has called for accelerated training and equipping of Iraqi security forces, while acknowledging that foreign troops must not leave yet. Since the formal transfer of sovereign authority to an interim government in June 2004, coalition commanders have insisted their forces are in the country at the invitation of the Iraqi authorities. The memo's suggested reduction in UK and US forces comes amid concerns about brutality by Iraqi security units, especially towards the disaffected Sunni Arab community whose co-operation will be vital for Iraq's political reconstruction.