ARAB AFFAIRS - March 16 - Saudi Reformists' Views.

Since the Mar. 16 arrests, many Saudis who previously spoke freely have been reluctant to go on the record, fearing they, too, could be targeted by the authorities. But Saudi reformist Sami Angawi has been quoted as saying: "Now we must organise, organise, organise. Nothing comes without sacrifice. Rights are not handed out; they are taken. The government has been in charge for 70 years and has done a good job. Now it's time for the people to participate. Everyone wants the House of Saud to remain in power - they keep the country stable. But what we need now is not democracy but freedom - freedom to gather, to express ourselves, to discuss issues, and then advise the government". Angawi is a member of the Council for the National Dialogue, a forum initiated under the supervision of Crown Prince Abdullah to encourage different sectors of society to communicate. It is also said that several senior princes recently asked the detained intellectuals to slow down the speed and adjust the scope of their demands, and to present a unified front at a time when the country is wrestling with terrorism. (More than 20 suspected Al Qaeda members are still on the run in Saudi Arabia. Two suspected Al Qaeda members strapped with explosive-laden belts - on their way to carry out a suicide mission - were shot dead in downtown Riyadh by security forces). At the Mar. 19 press conference with Powell, Prince Saud accused the detainees of seeking "dissension when the whole country was looking for unity and a clear vision, especially at a time when it is facing a terrorist threat". Powell said he expressed concern over the detentions to the Saudi authorities during his stopover in Riyadh. Writer Najeeb Al Khineizi, one of the released detainees, said the detention of the reformist leaders created a void that could hurt the kingdom, adding: "Silencing these moderate voices is not to the benefit of the authorities. Without this avenue, people will find different ways to express themselves, because change is inevitable". Khineizi, who was banned from writing in Saudi newspapers a year ago, also said: "We are not looking for radical solutions, but step-by-step movement. Stagnation is deadly to reform". Khineizi was picked up by Saudi security at a coffee shop and was released on Mar.18 after he signed a statement which, reportedly, he did under duress. The government-controlled Saudi press, which has been freer and more critical over the past two years during the reform initiative, remained silent about the arrests, publishing only official statements. Al-Hayat later had an interview with the Grand Mufti of Saudi Arabia, Shaikh Abdel Aziz Aal Al Shaikh, who condemning the detainees and said: "Those who cast doubt on the nation's leadership...are the true enemies even if they call for reform". On Mar. 20, Saudi Arabia's National Human Rights Association, set up earlier this month by the government, issued a statement saying it was looking into the matter of the detainees. The head of the association, Abdullah Al Obeid, told the Okaz daily that Saudi authorities "are entitled by law to arrest anyone for questioning". Lawyer Abdel Aziz Al Qassim, who helped write several petitions calling for reforms, says the arrests should have been expected and would not hurt the reform movement, adding: "A lot of change was going on in a short period of time. People were sending petitions and talking out in the open and meeting in public, and this was not common before". Qassim expects the reformers to continue working for change. Now that they know where the red lines are, they would operate "at a slower pace and in a more quiet manner".

The Mar. 11 Madrid bombings have driven home the realisation in Europe that Al Qaeda's capability to wreak mass destruction in the heart of the industrialised world remains intact. They also gave renewed salience to efforts to promote development and democratisation in the Arab world. In the long run, liberal Arabs say, lasting success against deadly fanatics like Al Qaeda implies eliminating the breeding grounds of hatred in the region. These are fuelled by a combination of political reaction, economic regression and social repression, aggravated by a sense of powerlessness in the face of foreign interference, the Israeli-Palestinian standoff and the forces of globalisation.

The drafters of the 2003 UNDP report on human development in the Arab world have reacted with harsh criticism to the GMEI, pointing out that the US has little credibility in the Arab world, that the more it associates itself with the report, the more it undermines the authority of the work. To be successful, Arab intellectuals say, the GMEI has to lose its US character and the European Union, the Arabs' largest trading partner, should be put at the heart of the process. Francois Heisbourg, director of the Foundation for Strategic Research in Paris, says if the industrialised powers are serious about the transformation required of the Arab world, they will have to "massively redirect their current aid efforts towards the key priorities identified by the UNDP reports - education and the empowerment of women. (Only a tiny fraction of US and EU aid is currently devoted to these ends. The bulk of US aid in the region is dedicated to the support of the military-industrial establishments of Egypt and Israel). Heisbourg warns: "...suggestions to emulate the cold war role of the erstwhile Conference on Security and Co-operation in Europe fall flat. The bargain struck at the time between the West and the Soviet Union ultimately hastened the demise of Soviet communism. Asking the Arab regimes to emulate this process is like inviting them to join a suicide pact. The Marshall Plan offers a rather more convincing model". (US Marshall Plan aid was extended to Europe insofar as the Europeans themselves set up multilateral organisations to manage the aid co-operatively, with a high degree of focus. The creation of the corresponding institutions in the late 1940s helped in turn to foster the beginnings of what has since become the EU). Heisbourg notes that The Marshall Plan was as much a European affair as a US-centred venture. "The highly focused aid entailed by the UNDP's agenda should therefore be handled by a cooperative Middle Eastern institution, giving a sense of appropriation of the program by the countries and the peoples of the region. However, not only the states of the region but also civil society should be made part of such a regional effort". But Heisbourg concludes by saying there will be no successful GMEI without decisive progress towards a lasting peace between the Israelis and the Palestinians.