ARAB AFFAIRS - Jan 25 - Priority For Iraq's Arab Neighbours To Avoid Civil War.

When the US launched the Iraqi invasion in 2003, it billed the war as a liberation that will create a model of democracy for the Arab world. But as Iraq's first democratic elections near, few Arabs appear to believe that the poll can produce a positive outcome. While governments lament the expected boycott of the poll by a large swathe of the Sunni Arab minority, commentators worry about the aftermath of a poll, held amid so much bloodshed and unfolding in the shadow of occupying armies. An Arab diplomat said: The elections are not necessarily going to be the way out of instability and out of the vicious circle of violence that is taking place". Autocratic Arab rulers should feel threatened that one of the region's most important countries is holding democratic elections. But for most governments, the priority now is to avert a civil war in Iraq, a conflict that could drag in all the neighbours. The Sec Gen of the Arab League Amr Moussa, had pushed hard, though unsuccessfully, in recent months for national reconciliation talks between Iraqis ahead of the election, which might have convinced more Sunnis to participate. The spokesman for the Arab League Hossam Zaki said: The elections are a very important step in the process of building the new Iraq. But to be credible all Iraqis should take part. It was important for a national dialogue to take place before the election. But that did not happen even though there was enough time for it". Uneasy about the US-backed poll, but unable to influence events in Iraq, Arab governments see no alternative to supporting it, flawed as it may be. Jordan, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have been trying to encourage Sunnis to take part. Even Syria, which is accused by Iraq of giving refuge to leaders of the insurgency, has said it wants the elections to succeed and pave the way for the departure of US troops. Syrian FM Farouq Al Shara said: We attach great importance to the political process in Iraq and we have an interest in its success. We urge all Iraqis, all groups and in all its regions, not one group in particular, to take part in the elections". Egyptian Pres Hosni Mubarak, said this month that it would be "preferable" if all Iraqis voted. But he said he feared Iraq could become ungovernable like Somalia, and a "hotbed for terrorism that would damage not only the region, but also the whole world". Saudi analysts say the government is concerned that Iraq has already become the new training ground for a generation of terrorists. Saudi Arabia, which has provided many recruits to the extremist network of Al Qaeda, has been clamping down on terrorist cells. The authorities, however, have found that many Saudis have moved to Iraq to fight US troops. The prospect of an Iraqi government dominated for the first time by the country's Shiite majority is another source of disquiet for Iraq's Sunni Arab neighbours, including Saudi Arabia, where the conservative Wahabi religious establishment has been intolerant towards Shiite Islam. In recent weeks, commentators in the Arab press have been more concerned with assessing the presence of US forces than with the elections. "No legitimacy, no credibility and no democracy", was the headline of an analysis on the impending election in the Egyptian government-owned daily Al Ahram. The piece opined that the poll was intended to produce an outcome tailor-made to suit the US. In the same edition of Al Ahram, an opinion writer argued that "the departure of the occupation forces has to be agreed now and the poll should be a step to prepare for that departure. Otherwise holding an election now will only bring violence and destruction".