APTITUDE IS CLASS OF THE FIELD.Byline: KEVIN MODESTI Horse Racing ARCADIA - By the time the season's strongest field of thoroughbreds lines up at the Belmont Park starting gate for the Breeders' Cup Classic at about 2:35 p.m. PDT Saturday, the number of gamblers hopeful of pocketing millions of dollars in the pick-six will be down to a nervous few - if that many. The Classic is the main event among the eight Breeders' Cup races and the cap to the pick-six sequence. With a pool of at least $3 million guaranteed by the promoters, the pick-six promises a seven-figure payoff to anyone smart and lucky enough to be the only handicapper to hand in a perfect card. After Cat Thief won the Classic at 19-1 odds two years ago at Gulfstream Park, only one ticket remained alive and a syndicate of bettors collected a U.S.-record $3,058,138. Let's be wild optimists and assume we can tab the winners of the Breeders' Cup Mile, Sprint, Filly & Mare Turf, Juvenile and Turf. What to do in the decisive Classic? It all depends on whether you're sold on Aptitude, the onetime disappointment who has blossomed at the right time for trainer Bobby Frankel and jockey Jerry Bailey. If the 4-year-old son of 1992 Classic champion A.P. Indy repeats his Jockey Club Gold Cup effort, he'll win. Jockey Club products have been among the worst Breeders' Cup bets over the years, though. We'll put off the Aptitude question and look at the Breeders' Cup races in chronological order, beginning with the Distaff and the Juvenile Fillies, neither part of the pick-six. Distaff: Exogenous, Flute and Spain ran 1-2-3 in the definitive prep at Belmont. Flute was the victim of a bad ride and will be favored Saturday. Spain won this race in 2000. All three prefer to sit just off the pace, and if their jockeys dwell on each other, Tranquility Lake and crafty Eddie Delahoussaye have a chance to take charge with superior early speed. Tranquility Lake, who has done most of her winning on turf in Southern California, looks like a good play as the 10-1 fifth choice. Juvenile Fillies: You, the filly with a name right out of Abbott and Costello, became the favorite when she ran away with her prep at Belmont, and top western hope Habibti has the disadvantage of having missed her scheduled prep at Santa Anita because of illness. The Juvenile Fillies has been dominated by come-from-behind horses, but You appears to be good enough to win even if she and Edgar Prado use the style that kept her close to a fast pace last time out. Del Mar stakes winner Tempera and David Flores complete the exacta. Mile: Horses trained in Europe have won seven of the 17 runnings of this turf event, the most in any Breeders' Cup race, and Noverre is favored to make it eight. California's high hopes sank when Val Royal and Irish Prize drew posts 12 and 13. If Val Royal and Irish Prize are hooked wide, Belmont course specialist Forbidden Apple and Jose Santos can take advantage after starting from the rail. Sprint: The fastest race of the year has been the playground of California horses, most recently Kona Gold, favored for a repeat win. Don't give up on Kona Gold and Alex Solis just because they were caught by Swept Overboard and Delahoussaye last time out at Santa Anita. Kona Gold won his seven races before that. He runs close to the pace but avoids speed duels. I'd key him in trifectas with probable leader Caller One, stretch-runner Swept Overboard and shortening-up miler El Corredor. Filly & Mare Turf: Lailani and Bailey won on this course a month ago, and England's Legend and Corey Nakatani slipped to second after setting a fast pace. The order should reverse this time. Volga - with the same trainer, Christophe Clement, as England's Legend - has a from-the-clouds shot at 15-1. Juvenile: If Bob Baffert-trained Officer chooses Saturday to lose for the first time in his career, a lot of pick-six bettors will keel over. The 2-year-old ridden by Victor Espinoza is untested in five starts, which is the argument for him and against him. Came Home and Chris McCarron settle for second. Don't they? Turf: The Dubai sheikhs' Godolphin stable would dominate this 1 1/2-mile race whether it decided to run Fantastic Light in the Turf and Sakhee in the Classic, or the other way around, as most had expected. Fantastic Light is even better at age 5 than he was when he ran a close and troubled fifth in the 2000 Turf. Jockey Frankie Dettori has only to point the way. Classic: Here's what's not to like about Aptitude: Nothing. Hall of Fame trainer. Hall of Fame jockey. Hall of Fame sire. Huge speed figure. Rising speed figures. Victory on the Breeders' Cup track. Hard to work up even a counter-intuitive case against him. Even after Point Given's retirement, it's a good race, with chances for defending champion Tiznow, Euro stars Galileo and Sakhee, and Albert the Great, Guided Tour, Include and Freedom Crest. But if you have to pick a horse to single, it's Aptitude. OUT OF THE GATE SANTA ANITA STANDINGS Through Wednesday Jockeys Wins Alex Solis 28 Kent Desormeaux 21 Laffit Pincay 18 Eddie Delahoussaye 11 Victor Espinoza 10 David Flores 10 Corey Nakatani 10 Jose Valdivia Jr. 10 Trainers Wins Bill Spawr 9 Bobby Frankel 7 Richard Mandella 7 Jack Carava 6 Bob Hess Jr. 6 ON THE STAKES SCHEDULE Santa Anita Sunday --$150,000 Carleton F. Burke Handicap, 3-year-olds and up, 1 1/2 miles on turf Belmont Park Saturday --$4 million Breeders' Cup Classic, 3-year-olds and up, 1 1/4 miles, heading the eight-race Breeders' Cup program offering more than $14 million in purses PINCAY WATCH Although Laffit Pincay's stakes business has bounced back in the past few years, he hasn't competed in the Breeders' Cup since 1997, when he rode Men's Exclusive to sixth place in the Sprint at Hollywood Park. The last of Pincay's seven Breeders' Cup victories came in 1993 with Phone Chatter in the Juvenile Fillies. Pincay's record career-wins total is up to 9,232. A WEEK AT THE RACES Breeders' Cup-day schedule: Santa Anita will run one race at 9:45 a.m., then wait out the Breeders' Cup simulcasts before resuming at 3:05 p.m. for six more races. Because the Breeders' Cup has its own pick-six, Santa Anita won't have a pick-six Saturday. Parking lots will open at 7:30 a.m., admission gates at 8. ... The Breeders' Cup is scheduled for Arlington Park near Chicago next year and at Santa Anita in 2003. What is the Breeders' Cup worth to a host community? A UCLA study, commissioned by the Los Angeles Sports Council and the L.A. Chamber of Commerce, ranked the 1997 Breeders' Cup at Hollywood Park and the 1993 edition at Santa Anita third and fourth among 22 major sports events held in Southern California in the past decade, with contributions to the economy of $60 million and $50 million, respectively. Topping the list were the 1994 World Cup ($600 million) and the 1993 Super Bowl ($182 million). At the bottom: The 1990 U.S. Open Badminton Championship pumped $100,000 into local coffers. ... Bobby Frankel goes into the Breeders' Cup trailing Bob Baffert $14.9 million to $12.1 million in the national trainer standings this year. Frankel, with horses in six of the eight races, could add $6.4 million to his barn's earnings Saturday. Baffert, with three horses, has the potential for $1.56 million. ... Revenescent's $41.20 upset in Sunday's fourth race at Santa Anita put Frankel atop the all-time Oak Tree trainers list with 227 victories. Waki Music's winner in the afternoon's first race had put Frankel in a tie with Ron McAnally. ... Daniel Wildenstein, the French breeder-owner who won Breeders' Cup races with Arcangues, All Along and Steinlen, has died at 84. - Kevin Modesti CAPTION(S): photo, box Photo: no caption (Laffit Pincay) Box: OUT OF THE GATE (see text) |
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