ANTICLIMAX; SMALLER STUDIOS SEEKING SEQUEL TO ROBUST '96.

Byline: Dave McNary Daily News Staff Writer

The independent film business, which achieved its greatest success in 1996 with ``The English Patient,'' ``Fargo,'' ``Sling Blade'' and ``Scream,'' has been suffering through a hitless 1997.

``The indies have been having an awful time this year, compared with last year,'' said Robert Bucksbaum, head of the Reel Source box office forecasting service. ``They just haven't been releasing anything that has any kind of Academy Awards buzz attached to it.''

Not only did the independents dominate the Oscars last year, they also performed exceptionally at the box office. Wes Craven's low-budget ``Scream'' has become stunningly profitable for Miramax, becoming the first film from a nonmajor studio since ``Pulp Fiction'' to go past $100 million in domestic grosses.

All told, 20 independent movies went past $10 million, including ``Trainspotting,'' ``Emma,'' ``Big Night'' and ``The Substitute.'' By contrast, ``Chasing Amy'' is the only one to pass that mark this year. Many of the indy releases have flat-out tanked, including relatively high-profile projects such as ``City of Industry,'' ``Blood and Wine,'' ``Rough Magic,'' ``Inventing the Abbotts,'' ``Brassed Off,'' ``Paradise Road'' and ``Love! Valour! Compassion!''

There are several reasons why this year's batch has performed worse than 1996's, industry analysts say, but the chief one is simple: The films aren't as good this year.

``The problem is not that there are too many films but too many basically mediocre films,'' said Chris Lanier, head of the Motion Picture Intelligencer forecasting service. ``It's not that they're bad; it's just that they're not good enough.''

Another problem for the indies is that studios have diversified their offerings. ``I think that a film like `Contact' or `My Best Friend's Wedding' tends to draw in people who might otherwise go to an art-house movie,'' Bucksbaum said. ``The success of those movies really hurts the indies.''

Additionally, Bucksbaum notes, many indy films fall through the cracks of not having enough marketing muscle behind them even though nearly all the indy operations are owned by major studios.

``There are good films like `For Roseanna' that just disappear because they don't get pushed hard enough,'' he said of Fine Line's critically praised project that vanished after a month and about $100,000 in grosses. ``The studios are facing much higher marketing costs, so the small films sometimes suffer.''

Despite the proliferation of screens in megaplexes, indy operators face a daunting task with many projects, since most of them involve offbeat themes that the majors passed on. ``When we're trying to open, we have to fight for every single screen we get,'' said October executive Aimee Shieh.

Additionally, the screens have to be the right ones, according to Fox Searchlight marketing executive David Dinerstein. For example, success at the Laemmle and Landmark chains can generate the same kind of want-to-see sentiment among moviegoers that propels a ``Fargo'' or ``Shine'' into the multiplexes.

``Initially, you're appealing to a very selective audience, and that market has become crowded with mediocre movies that aren't original,'' Dinerstein said, citing the plethora of similar films to the 1995 low-budget hit ``The Brothers McMullen.''

Still, with the number of U.S. screens up nearly 7 percent last year and growing at a similar rate this year, the potential for a breakout hit is greater than ever. A complex with a dozen or more screens can give up three or four auditoriums to ``Air Force One'' or ``Men In Black'' and still feel comfortable about giving a screen to ``Ulee's Gold.''

To be fair, it should be noted that several of 1996's hit indy releases racked up significant parts of their grosses during 1997 as the Oscar hype peaked. Miramax marketing chief Mark Gill points out that his Disney-owned operation, the longtime leader of the indies, took in $250 million last year and is on pace for about the same figure this year with $180 million so far.

``Earlier this year, films like `Sling Blade,' `The English Patient' and `Scream' took a lot of time and attention,'' said Gill. ``You are starting to see our schedule kick into high gear.''

But 1997 has been fairly grim for projects actually released this year, with only a few box office success stories so far: Miramax's ``Chasing Amy,'' Trimark's ``Sprung'' and ``Ulee's Gold,'' first released by Orion, which was recently taken over by MGM.

Furthermore, the indies have produced only a pair of long-shot Oscar candidates in Peter Fonda for ``Ulee's Gold'' and Judi Dench in Miramax's ``Mrs. Brown.'' By comparison, Frances McDormand was already the front-runner at this point last year for her performance in ``Fargo,'' for which she won best actress.

It may just be that the indies have hit a slump and will soon rebound. Some of the strongest candidates will roll out in the next few weeks, with two from Miramax - ``Cop Land'' starring Sylvester Stallone and Robert De Niro, and ``Mimic,'' a thriller Bucksbaum believes can do $20 million. October may have a hit with ``Career Girls,'' Mike Leigh's first film since ``Secrets and Lies,'' and Gramercy's ``How to be a Player'' has decent prospects.

Fox Searchlight, which has stumbled with offbeat fare such as ``Paradise Road'' and ``Smilla's Sense of Snow,'' may score its first hit since starting operations last summer when it releases male-stripper comedy ``The Full Monty.'' It has been holding free sneak previews to generate strong word of mouth prior to the Aug. 13 opening.

``People at screenings have been ecstatic,'' reported marketing executive David Dinerstein. ``They're saying things like, `It's not the kind of movie that I'd ordinarily go see but I'm glad I did.' We think it's well-timed, because audiences are growing very tired of big studio summer releases by this time of year.''

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Box, Photo

Box: Independent Hits (See text)

Photo: (Color) Ralph Fiennes and Kristen Scott Thomas starred in independent studio Miramax's 1996 success ``The English Patient.''