ANALYSIS-Pakistan vote presents risks, some upside for U.S.

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Pakistani voters' rejection of U.S. ally President Pervez Musharraf forces Washington to find new partners in the key Muslim nation, but also presents a chance to pursue shared interests with wider legitimacy.

The United States reacted cautiously to Monday's election for the 342-seat National Assembly that showed the pro-Musharraf Pakistan Muslim League losing badly to the country's two main opposition parties.

State Department spokesman Tom Casey urged all parties to remain calm, accept the results and work together. He welcomed the vote as a "step toward the full restoration of democracy."

The White House, which had considered military strongman Musharraf a bulwark against al Qaeda and the Taliban, expressed hope for continued cooperation on counterterrorism.

A muted U.S. response was prudent while the top vote getter, the Pakistan People's Party of assassinated former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, discusses with potential partners the shape of a new government, experts said.

"The outcome was not a disaster. It didn't lead to the victory of anyone who would be deeply dangerous to Washington, but it will complicate things," said Daniel Markey, a South Asia expert at the Council on Foreign Relations.

He predicted the vote would lead to Musharraf's eventual departure, but said Washington should tread carefully with prospective new leaders now because "there's nothing that hurts a Pakistani candidate like the kiss from Washington."

The United States is faulted by Pakistanis for backing Musharraf despite his civil rights crackdown in 2007. More broadly, many Pakistanis believe Washington favors individuals over institutions and the military over civilian rulers.

"It is very important for the U.S. administration to move quickly to welcome the new government as soon as a prime minister is named and to make contacts and prove that we are willing to work with a civilian leadership," said Lisa Curtis, South Asia analyst at the Heritage Foundation.

DISTRACTED BY POLITICS

Underscoring Pakistan's importance to Washington, U.S. presidential candidates weighed in on the election results.

"A democratic Pakistan will be a better ally in the fight against terror and extremism, and will be better for the Pakistani people," said said Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a contender in the Democratic Party primary race.

Republican primary front-runner Sen. John McCain welcomed what was reported to be a free and fair vote and said he looked forward to working with a new government.

"Whoever runs that country we have a common interest in defeating the Taliban, and having good relations between Afghanistan and Pakistan," said the Arizona lawmaker.

Markey said a new government represented long-term promise, because elected civilians were better partners than military coup leaders like Musharraf and the progressive Pakistan People's Party would be likely to promote the kind of economic development projects that undercut Islamic militancy.

But he warned against expecting quick movement before exhausting rounds of negotiating and maneuvering among Pakistani politicians produce a new government.

"All of the Pakistani civilian political leaders are going to be very distracted from any issues that have to do with things the United States cares most about," said Markey.

For the shorter term, U.S. concerns about terrorism can be addressed by Pakistan's new army chief, Gen. Ashfaq Kayani, who has demonstrated an understanding of the threat to Pakistan from extremism but has stayed out of politics, said Curtis.

"Kayani is showing that he wants to put distance between the military and the civilian administration and this works in favor of U.S. interests because he won't be sidetracked by politics," she said. (Editing by David Wiessler)