ANALYSIS : FUTURE OF POLITICS AWAITS DAY IN COURT.

Byline: Daniel Borenstein Knight-Ridder Tribune News Wire

The state voters spoke or so it seemed.

In 1990, they approved term limits.

In March, they insisted on open primaries in which voters can cross party lines to vote for any candidate.

This month, they backed campaign fund-raising and spending rules.

Three initiatives put on the ballot by voters and approved by a majority of the electorate. Three initiatives that could dramatically alter California's political lineup.

If the voters have their way.

But the state's political rules are landing in federal court. Each one of the initiatives is the subject of a pending or expected lawsuit.

``The way these things play out could have a huge impact,'' says Ray McNally, a Sacramento-based Republican campaign consultant.

Individually, each issue is significant. Collectively, they provide a matrix of possible outcomes that makes a politician's head spin when looking ahead to the next statewide election.

For example, consider the plight of state Sen. Bill Lockyer, D-Hayward. He's the leader of the Legislature's upper house, arguably the most politically powerful Democrat in the state.

He wants to keep his job, says his spokesman, Sandy Harrison. But term limits, if upheld, will force him from office in 1998. So he has launched a campaign for state attorney general.

And what about the hundreds of thousands of dollars he has in his Senate campaign fund? If he wants to run for attorney general, he might need to transfer the money before the end of the year before the new campaign finance law restricts transfers and limits how much he can raise.

But, if term limits are thrown out, the musical chairs seen this year could come to a screeching halt. Veteran lawmakers like Lockyer might rethink their plans to move on.

Most, however, are planning with the assumption that term limits and open primaries will be upheld, and spending limits will be in force. As a result they are rushing to beat the end-of-the-year deadline when the state's new campaign finance law takes effect.

``Most candidates are trying to raise as much money as possible and then in the last two weeks of December make their best judgment (of which seat to seek),'' says Bob Mulholland, political strategist for the state Democratic Party. ``It's like musical chairs. Unfortunately it's eight chairs and 45 people.''

In this season of giving, politicians are hoping lobbyists and other contributors will stuff their stockings by Christmas, or New Year's Eve at the latest.

At least 44 legislative fund-raisers are planned before year's end. The typical $500 to $1,000 price exceeds the $250 donor limits slated to begin Jan. 1. Lobbyists, who will be barred from contributing under the new law, are being hit up for contributions now.

``Members up here are doing a lot of fund raising,'' says McNally.

They can't risk waiting on the courts to rule. Candidates have to start making plans for 1998 if they want to mount strong campaigns. The court battles could drag on for years. What's a candidate to do?

Only one thing is certain, says Chip Nielsen, attorney for the Republican Party: ``There's a good deal of uncertainty.''