ANALYSIS: UCLA HAS LITTLE ROOM FOR ERROR IN TITLE DRIVE.

Byline: Jon Wilner Daily News Staff Writer

They've reached the turn, the lead horse wears Wildcat blue and shows no signs of fatigue. UCLA is tied for second with Stanford at 7-2, although the Cardinal, with two home losses, has the tougher path.

The Bruins, three-time defending champs, aren't used to looking up, but at least their parameters are well defined.

``I don't think we can afford to drop anymore, especially with our two hardest road trips (Arizona and the Bay Area) out of the way,'' UCLA forward J.R. Henderson said.

The Bruins (17-3, 7-2) have three brutal games remaining - at Washington, Stanford and Arizona in Pauley Pavilion - and a slew of matchups that will demand their attention. But if they play as they did in the first 30 minutes against Washington, they just may be in title contention position when the Wildcats invade Pauley on March 7.

``(UCLA) is as good as the other two,'' Washington coach Bob Bender said. ``It's a matter of who's played who at home. We'll see where the second round goes. But there's definitely a distinction'' between the top three and everyone else.

Nine down, nine to go - here's a look at the best (and worst) of the Bruins:

Best player: If the season ended today, Henderson and Arizona's Mike Bibby would battle for Pac-10 Player of the Year honors. Henderson's production has dipped in conference because of constant double teams, but his presence makes everyone better. Bruins are 12-1 when he scores at least 16 points, his average in conference games.

Most improved player: Kris Johnson, in a landslide. Johnson missed four games (suspension) and needed several weeks to regain form. His success is a tribute to patience and hard work. He's always first on the court and one of the last to leave.

In Pac-10 play, he's averaging a team-high 20.1 points, shooting 48 percent from 3-point range and hauling 5.3 rebounds. If it keeps up, a spot on the all-conference team awaits.

Best game: Combine the first half at Arizona with the second at Stanford, and you would have a stellar 40 minutes. But for a complete game, Saturday's performance against Washington will have to do. The Bruins played solid defense, shared the ball and maintained their concentration until the reserves took over with six minutes left.

Worst game: The near-debacle against Oregon, their next opponent, Thursday at rowdy McArthur Court. The Bruins almost wasted a 20-point lead on Jan. 10 as their worst habits - selfishness, apathy, sloppy defense, stagnant offense - all surfaced at once. Play like that in Eugene, and loss No. 4 is sure to follow.

Best coaching move: Steve Lavin's decision to take Baron Davis off the ball, which reduced his first-half foul trouble and, in turn, bolstered sagging confidence.

Davis no longer pressures opposing ballhandlers, nor does he lead the fast break. Those chores went to Earl Watson, who's more judicious in his aggressiveness. Davis has averaged 14 points in the four games since the switch, compared to 7.3 in the four before.

Best play: Anything that involves dumping the ball to Henderson in the low post, back outside, then swinging it around the perimeter for weakside shooting and penetration. Lavin believes the Bruins score on approximately 70 percent of the possessions in which they use the ``dump-and-swing'' technique.

Biggest concerns for the stretch run: 1. Jelani McCoy's status. Has he played his last game? Will he finish the season? The Bruins need his rebounding, his shot blocking and, perhaps most of all, his fouls. Without him, they're so thin on the frontline they're transparent.

2. Defensive fundamentals. The Bruins don't pressure passers or passing lanes. (Did you see how easily Washington got the ball inside to Todd MacCulloch?) They don't fight through screens. Their low-post positioning is poor. Their footwork is lacking.

Just think how good they'd be if they defended like Stanford and Arizona.

3. Free throws. The Bruins are shooting 61.3 percent from the line in Pac-10 play. Worse, all their primary ballhandlers - Davis, Watson and Toby Bailey - are below 65 percent.

4. See No. 1.

GO FIGURE

A by-the-numbers glance at the UCLA season:

1: Number of Bruins victories over top-25 teams, against three losses

8: Games in which UCLA has been outrebounded

10: Games in which J.R. Henderson has led Bruins in scoring

11: Days until Stanford rematch 

20.1: Kris Johnson's scoring average in Pac-10 play

33.7: Combined 3-point shooting percentage of Earl Watson and Baron Davis

34: Days until Arizona rematch

52.3: UCLA shooting percentage in Pac-10 games

65: Fouls committed by Davis (leads team)

84.2: UCLA's winning percentage in Division I games

-- Jon Wilner

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BOX: GO FIGURE (see text)