ANALYSIS: IT COMES DOWN TO 4TH QUARTER.

Byline: Scott Wolf Staff Writer

USC freshman tackle Winston Justice eagerly awaits the Trojans' final four games because he fully expected to be here.

``A big-time player playing in big-time games. That's why I chose USC,'' Justice said.

His older teammate, senior wide receiver Kareem Kelly, offers a more measured perspective on where the 11th-ranked Trojans sit today.

``We're on the road to a place I thought we could have been four years ago,'' Kelly said. ``It's been pretty unfortunate.''

Either way, everything USC (6-2, 4-1) accomplished the first eight weeks of the season will be shaped by how it fares in November, when everything from a Rose Bowl bid to a spot in a Bowl Championship Series bowl will be determined.

``What we are in control of is having a great year if we finish strong,'' USC coach Pete Carroll said.

But how easy will that finish be for the Trojans?

No one expected USC to dominate Oregon in Eugene last week, but the 44-33 victory increased expectations. So has the fact the Trojans are bubbling just outside the top 10 (11th) in the BCS rankings.

If USC continues to win, and even if Washington State goes to the Rose Bowl, the Trojans could have a legitimate shot for an at-large berth for a BCS game, such as the Sugar Bowl.

With struggling Stanford next week, the Trojans should open their four-game finish with a victory, although the Cardinal has given USC fits recently, winning the past three years.

``My class hasn't beaten Stanford,'' Kelly said. ``We've got a chip on our shoulder.''

After Stanford, the Trojans host Arizona State, which got blown out Saturday by Washington State. But the Sun Devils could be playing USC with second place on the line in the Pacific-10 Conference.

Assuming USC wins those two games, it would set up a critical finish against traditional rivals UCLA and Notre Dame. Sweeping those games has been a near-impossible task for USC in recent decades; the last time USC beat both its rivals in the same season was 1981, and the Trojans haven't beaten the Bruins and Irish in back-to-back weeks since 1978.

Even with Notre Dame suffering their first loss of the season Saturday against Boston College, that game will be difficult for USC at best.

Perhaps with that in mind, Carroll wouldn't speculate whether the Trojans could get shortchanged by the BCS for an at-large berth even if they win their final four games.

``I don't think we'll be griping at the end about where we sit,'' Carroll said.

Even with a rough November schedule, USC remains optimistic. The main reason is Carroll, the eternal optimist who has his players believing in him and happier than any team since perhaps the 1995 version.

Another factor has been the improvement of the offense. Quarterback Carson Palmer has thrown for 796 yards and nine touchdowns with only two interceptions the past two games, and he is being billed by USC as a Heisman Trophy candidate for the first time.

Freshman wide receiver Mike Williams, who had 13 receptions for 226 yards against Oregon, has a chance to set an NCAA record for receiving yardage by a freshman.

``I don't think he can be stopped,'' Carroll said. ``And if a team does try, we're more than happy to go to Keary (Colbert) or Kareem.''

Perhaps most significantly, Justin Fargas rushed for 139 yards against Oregon and will be the starting tailback the final four games as long as he runs anywhere close to the way he did against the Ducks.

All the components make the Trojans a more dangerous opponent than in past years, when the defense often did most of the heavy lifting.

``Last year, we made mistakes in the clutch,'' Kelly said. ``This year, the team doesn't make mistakes like that.''

Another factor in the Trojans' favor is their experience. After playing at Kansas State, the loudest crowd USC has faced in recent memory, last week's trip to Eugene seemed a step down. The offensive line didn't commit any false starts, and USC took the crowd out in the second half.

``I thought the Kansas State crowd really lit it up,'' Carroll said. ``We had no trouble at Eugene. No one will rattle us at all.''

Defensively, a key change also took place that kept the Trojans formidable, when junior Marcell Allmond replaced freshman William Buchanon at cornerback for the Washington game.

Allmond's improved play eased the loss of injured cornerbacks Kevin Arbet and Ronald Nunn.

As USC makes its November run, an area to watch could be the defense's pass rush. The loss of Shaun Cody (knee surgery) neutralized the rush and turned sophomore Mike Patterson into an ordinary performer now that teams no longer have to double-team Cody.

Last week, Carroll started blitzing more with cornerback Darrell Rideaux, and that might be standard procedure the rest of the season.

After their surprising start, the bottom line is USC's season will be judged on its final four games.

``I think a tremendous finish to the season will make it a very successful year,'' Carroll said.

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Photo:

Senior Kareem Kelly says USC's current standing has been a long time coming.

Don Ryan/Associated Press

Box:

THE FINAL FOUR