ALL YOU WANT FOR CHRISTMAS.

Byline: Joe Mosley The Register-Guard

There's a common theory that numbers are fickle - they can be made to say whatever you'd like.

Well, proof appears to be in the Christmas-season hype.

Marketers, retail groups, researchers and a wide variety of others have spent the past couple of months spewing a steady stream of polls, predictions, surveys and suggestions of what shoppers could or should be buying during the biggest retail-sales period of the year.

Consumer Reports, the godfather of shopping research organizations, has put out a holiday shopping poll indicating, among other things, that nearly a fifth of Americans plan to buy flat-panel television sets for the holidays or soon after.

Angie's List - an Indiana-based online company that offers ratings and reviews of home improvement contractors - conducted a poll that suggests 62 percent of respondents will spend as much as a quarter of their holiday budgets on gift cards.

Even the Hershey's company - of chocolate fame - has gotten into the act with a shopping survey indicating that electronics (29.3 percent) will edge clothing (22.8 percent) as this year's most popular gift category.

"I love this stuff, because it gives consumers another source of information in their product evaluation," says Debra Ringold, professor of marketing at Salem's Willamette University and board chairwoman for the American Marketing Association.

"My view is that more information ... is better," Ringold says. "The more you know as a consumer, the better choices you make - and the more competitive the marketplace."

According to the National Retail Foundation, holiday retail sales in the United States are expected to increase by 5 percent over 2005, to a total of $457 billion this year. Angie's List found that consumers will spend an average of almost $800 each this year on gifts for family and friends.

All of that provides plenty of motivation for retailers - whether they're looking to sample preferences or shape them - and for the consultants looking to tap into the juice of the season.

Hot gifts? Try a PlayStation 3, or a flat-panel TV. Or toys. Or gift cards.

Miss out on Black Friday? Try Cyber Monday.

That's the vehicle of online retailers, who are promoting the day after the Thanksgiving weekend as a kickoff to an Internet-based shopping season that JupiterResearch has predicted will gross $32 billion this year - an 18 percent increase over 2005.

A joint survey by Shop.org and BizRate Research indicates 63 percent of online retailers had begun their holiday promotions by the first weekend in November.

And the Consumer Reports poll indicates 40 percent of adults will shop online for the holidays - for convenience (45 percent), to avoid crowds (17 percent) and for better prices (12 percent).

"When organizations field a survey, whether they do it themselves or have a research contractor, they're motivated by a desire to find out what consumers want," says Ringold. "Market research is one way that companies carry out a dialogue with consumers."

What are they finding? The gold standard for shoppers, as in recent years, is electronics.

The Computing Technology Industry Association found in a recent poll that Sony's new PlayStation 3 is this year's most-wanted tech toy, showing up on the wish lists of 21 percent of poll respondents.

High-definition, LCD and plasma TVs were second on the list, at 18 percent; Microsoft's Xbox 360 game console was third, at 10.2 percent. Also high on the tech lists were digital cameras, smart phones and MP3 music players such as Apple's iPod.

"A lot of LCDs (televisions) is what we're looking at," says Matt Geiss, sales manager at the Best Buy store in Springfield. "What's changed in that category is the price - it's become more consumer-friendly. And it's a phenomenal television, obviously."

The flat-panel televisions now range in size from 15 inches to 42 inches, and in price from $300 to $5,000, Geiss says.

He also expects Nintendo's new Wii gaming console - launched a week ago in North America - to be a big hit with customers frustrated by the harder-to-find PlayStation 3.

`Nintendo is able to produce significantly more (units),'

Geiss says. `It's going to be hit-and-miss when they come in (to the local inventory), but they're going to be a whole lot more accessible than the PlayStation 3.'

Other gift ideas?

According to the Angie's List poll, nearly three-quarters of respondents feel good about giving gift cards. But the company also warns consumers to be careful of expiration dates, fees and conditions for use.

"Some cards have expiration dates or fees that can impact the overall value of the gift you're giving," says Angie Hicks, the company's founder, in a news release about the poll results.

Corporate Research International - an Ohio outfit that bills itself as "a leading mystery shopping and consumer survey company" - concurs with the gift card theory.

The company's poll of shoppers during the 2005 holiday season found that more than 75 percent gave gift cards last Christmas. The most popular cards were from restaurants (24.2 percent), followed by department stores (14.8 percent).

"I certainly can tell you we have aggressively planned to do a very strong business this year, in gift cards specifically," says Kimberly Reason, director of corporate communications for Macy's Northwest.

"Every year, our gift card sales have increased remarkably," Reason says. "It's certainly a method of commerce that customers are using more and more."

She also expects brisk sales in the department store chain's other "giftable items," ranging from trendy products such as women's leggings to classics such as cashmere sweaters.

"All of our gifts are out on the floor," Reason says. "We have our visible presentation for the holidays all laid out, and our stores have been working very hard getting ready for the holiday season."

The big guns came out this weekend, following the Black Friday blast-off to this year's shopping countdown.

According to the Consumer Reports poll, 30 percent of respondents planned to spend at least part of Black Friday shopping - contributing to the 13-hour average that consumers will spend on this year's shopping duties.

The Maritz Retail Research Group found in a separate poll that 44 percent of consumers from households with incomes between $75,000 and $100,000 would participate in Black Friday's shopping blitz - 77 percent of them citing sale prices.

Hershey's went so far as to relabel the day after Thanksgiving "Special Dark Friday" to promote its Special Dark chocolate. The company offered a toll-free line for shoppers to sign up for free wake-up calls on "Special Dark Friday" and commissioned its shopping survey to gauge America's gift-buying preferences.

"For retailers and manufacturers of seasonal-related goods, this is a big, important time of the year," says Ringold, the Willamette University expert.

"The risks associated with not understanding what consumers want at this time of year are really high. So to avoid mistakes, they're asking."