ALGERIA - The Changing Muslim Parties - Part 2.

Of all the countries in the Arab World, Algeria was the one worst hit by Islamic militancy. In many ways it was a test case for radical groups to see whether they could take power by force. They succeeded in pushing the country into a virtual civil war between 1992 and the late 1990s, with a campaign of violence that left more than 100,000 dead. But they failed in achieving their objectives and the prospects of success in future appear to be zero. Not all among the Islamic groups in Algeria have recognised this reality, but those that matter in terms of the danger they pose to the existing system have been tamed.

The present situation in Algeria is far different from what it was in the early to mid-1990s. The key Islamic group - Front Islamique du Salut (FIS) - is trying to re-enter the political mainstream. A large number of militants have surrendered under an offer of amnesty by the government of President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

This has been going on for much of the past year, with militants still said to be surrendering in trickles in different parts of the country. In general, the Algerian public has become fed up of the violence and just want to return to a normal life. The more realistic among the militant leaders have recognised that they cannot overthrow the existing regime by force.

The military establishment, which took a very hard line against the militants and was criticised almost as much by human rights groups, feels it has been vindicated. Its brutal line against militancy appears to have delivered the desired results. Public opinion, forced to make a choice, finally opted for the existing system as opposed to the chaos likely under the numerous militant factions which often fought among themselves. Some semblance of stability has returned to Algeria, although attacks continue sporadically.

At present the militant groups are cornered. They have limited external sources of assistance, either in financial or in moral and diplomatic terms. Internally, the state security forces have been applying relentless pressure on the various groups through tough crackdown operations and by systematically choking their financial and logistic lifelines.

The choking of logistic and financial lifelines is becoming the critical element in an increasingly globalised war that is being waged against terrorist groups emanating from the Islamic world. This issue has gained increasing urgency with the centre of gravity of militant violence shifting from the Middle East to the Afghanistan/Pakistan area (see News Service No. 6 & No. 7 of this week).

Yet the existing Algerian regime's victory is mixed with the reality that the defeat of militancy is far from total. There continue to be pockets of extreme violence in the country. The violent Armed Islamic Group (GIA) continues to campaign for the ouster of the regime, despite reported splits within the group. Indeed, some militant groups have simply transformed themselves into criminal enterprises - and there have been reports that such enterprises have links to political figures. Most observers agree, therefore, that the withdrawal symptoms from militancy in Algeria will be a drawn out process.

Militancy first exploded in Algeria in early 1992, after a build-up from the late 1980s. The spark that set off the violent rebellion was the military decision to intervene and prevent the now-banned FIS from clinching victory in general elections in December 1991-January 1992. Since then the country has been in the throes of violence which has claimed more than 100,000 lives, though some estimates say the real figure is much higher. The Algerian League for the Defence of Human Rights estimates that 18,000 people have gone missing in the conflict.