AIR Worldwide Releases New Model to Help Insurers Better Estimate Potential Losses from Wildfires.BOSTON -- AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) announces the release of its U.S. Wildfire Model, a new probabilistic (probability) probabilistic - Relating to, or governed by, probability. The behaviour of a probabilistic system cannot be predicted exactly but the probability of certain behaviours is known. Such systems may be simulated using pseudorandom numbers. model designed to help insurers better understand the location of their exposures relative to high risk areas and to estimate potential losses from wildfires. The model will help insurers, reinsurers, and intermediaries manage wildfire risk both for individual policies and entire portfolios of properties in California. Nationally, wildfires have cost the insurance industry more than $5 billion since 1980 with a majority of the losses occurring in California. The 2003 Cedar and Old wildfires in Southern California Southern California, also colloquially known as SoCal, is the southern portion of the U.S. state of California. Centered on the cities of Los Angeles and San Diego, Southern California is home to nearly 24 million people and is the nation's second most populated region, , for example, cost insurers more than $2 billion. Together, the fires burned more than 750,000 acres, destroyed 3,700 homes and resulted in the deaths of 24 people. In 2006, more than 8.7 million acres have burned in Western states to date, equaling the acreage burned in all of 2005, one of the worst years on record. "The growth in insured losses from wildfires is a result of the same broad demographic trend we've observed with respect to other perils--namely, increasing property development in high risk areas," said Dr. Jayanta Guin, vice president of research and modeling at AIR. "In the case of wildfires, we are witnessing property growth in the buffer zone buffer zone n. A neutral area between hostile or belligerent forces that serves to prevent conflict. Noun 1. buffer zone between wildlands and the urban environment. According to according to prep. 1. As stated or indicated by; on the authority of: according to historians. 2. In keeping with: according to instructions. 3. U.S. Fire Administration statistics, nearly 40 percent of new home development in the Western United States Noun 1. western United States - the region of the United States lying to the west of the Mississippi River West Santa Fe Trail - a trail that extends from Missouri to New Mexico; an important route for settlers moving west in the 19th century is occurring in this wildland-urban interface, putting more insured property at risk every year." Insured losses from wildfires are influenced by factors such as local fuels, topography, weather, and the vulnerability of affected structures. AIR's model employs high resolution fuel (vegetation), topographic, and weather data. The model incorporates 13 burnable fuel types at 30-meter resolution accounting for variations in moisture content, fuel loading, and horizontal continuity. Since fire spread is influenced by topography, AIR has incorporated high-resolution USGS USGS United States Geological Survey (US Department of the Interior) digital elevation data. The model also considers the effect of wind speed and direction, including the Santa Ana winds Santa Ana Winds may refer to: 1. Santa Ana wind, a local Southern California reference to Föhn winds, a meteorological phenomenon occurring as a layer of wind is forced over a mountain range -- drying the air -- which then passes over the crest and begins to move downslope -- in Southern California and the Diablo winds in the northern part of the state. The AIR model also estimates the mitigating impact of fire breaks created in the course of fire suppression activities, as well as the exacerbating impact of impaired road access. The flammability of roof and siding materials is the primary determinant of a structures' vulnerability to fire. The AIR model accounts for a wide range of residential and commercial constructions and takes into account mitigating factors, such as fire resistant roofing and siding materials, to build an estimate of damage and loss. AIR's probabilistic wildfire model is based on a robust stochastic catalog of potential future events that provides insurers with full probability distributions Many probability distributions are so important in theory or applications that they have been given specific names. Discrete distributions With finite support
About AIR Worldwide Corporation AIR Worldwide Corporation (AIR) is a leading risk modeling company helping clients manage the financial impact of catastrophes and weather. Utilizing the latest science and technology, AIR models natural catastrophes in more than 40 countries and the risk from terrorism in the United States A common definition of terrorism is the systematic use or threatened use of violence to intimidate a population or government and thereby effect political, religious, or ideological change. . Other areas of expertise include site-specific seismic engineering analysis, catastrophe bonds, and property replacement cost valuation. An ISO (1) See ISO speed. (2) (International Organization for Standardization, Geneva, Switzerland, www.iso.ch) An organization that sets international standards, founded in 1946. The U.S. member body is ANSI. business, AIR was founded in 1987 to provide its insurance, reinsurance The contract made between an insurance company and a third party to protect the insurance company from losses. The contract provides for the third party to pay for the loss sustained by the insurance company when the company makes a payment on the original contract. , corporate, and government clients a complete line of risk modeling software and consulting services that produce consistent and reliable results. Headquartered in Boston, AIR has additional offices in North America, Europe, and Asia. For more information, please visit www.air-worldwide.com. |
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